Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low? (Week 17)

July 16, 2024

Joey Pollizze discusses five well-known fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers who have not performed well recently. He looks at whether it's time to drop or hold these players.

We have officially made it to the All-Star break. With several days off until the next game, now is the perfect time to really evaluate your team. As we head into the middle of July, fantasy baseball managers should be ready to make some tough decisions in the coming weeks. 

Is it time to get rid of that pitcher or batter who has struggled for the past month? Those types of decisions are only some of the tough ones fantasy managers will need to make over the next few weeks to get their team to the playoffs. 

So, to make things easier, here are what managers should do with these five struggling players heading into the All-Star break. 

• BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
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Jake Irvin, SP, Washington Nationals

It was only a matter of time until Washington Nationals pitcher Jake Irvin faced some challenges. After throwing eight shutout innings with eight strikeouts on July 4 against the New York Mets, Irvin lowered his ERA to a season-best 2.80. Despite pitching well to start the 2024 season, though, Irvin was due for some regression. 

His expected batting average (.245), average exit velocity (89.6 mph), hard-hit rate (41.1%), and barrel rate (8.6%) all ranked in the bottom half of the league. That has certainly shown up in his final two starts before the All-Star break, as Irvin allowed 13 runs (12 earned runs) over his last 10 innings of work. In his most recent outing, the right-hander gave up seven runs (six earned runs) on nine hits across just four innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Jake Irvin is now 5th in NL ERA after throwing 8 scoreless innings today. pic.twitter.com/rW67FzjjIH

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2024

So, things are certainly trending the wrong way for Irvin heading into the second half of the season. However, fantasy managers should hold the 27-year-old in every format right now. 

Irvin has shown a ton of great things in 2024 and has really broken out in his second major league season. He currently owns a 3.49 ERA and 99 strikeouts across 20 starts this season. Those pitching numbers are too good to drop in fantasy at this point in the year. 

Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

What a weird year it has been for Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller. He started the season by throwing six scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts against the St. Louis Cardinals on March 29. However, he gave up five runs across 1 2/3 innings in his next start against the Chicago Cubs and then landed on the injured list with a shoulder injury shortly after his third outing. 

Following his two-plus months on the IL, Miller was activated to the Dodgers' active roster on June 19. But in his four starts back, the 25-year-old has struggled mightily. He had a 9.87 ERA over those four outings before Los Angeles decided to option him down on July 10. 

Bobby Miller, Annihilating the Side. 😳 pic.twitter.com/YfNTfmCz39

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2024

It's tough to see Miller post those kinds of numbers in 2024, especially after he finished with solid stats as a rookie in 2023. Last year, he finished with a 3.76 ERA and 119 strikeouts across 22 starts. 

This season has obviously been a different story for Miller, but he is still someone fantasy managers should hold -- even while he works on things in the minors. He is going to get another chance to show his potential in the big leagues in 2024, and it could come as soon as the end of July. The right-hander is worth a hold in most formats due to his fantasy upside in the second half of the season.  

Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

If you have rostered Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo over the past two years, you know how frustrating it is to own him. That's because the left-hander has missed extended time in both 2023 and 2024 due to various injuries. 

Last year, Lodolo pitched in just seven games after recovering from a stress reaction in his left tibia. This season, the southpaw has pitched in 14 games while spending time on the IL on three different occasions. He began the year on the IL with a calf strain before landing on the IL again in May with a left groin strain and, most recently, with a blister on his pitching hand. 

As a result, it has been tough to rely on Lodolo in fantasy. On top of that, the results haven't necessarily been there for the 26-year-old as of late. He hasn't gone more than 4 2/3 innings in his last three outings while having a 6.23 ERA during that span. The left-hander has also walked at least four batters in two of his past three games. 

However, Lodolo should not be dropped in any league. He currently has a 3.33 ERA and 81 strikeouts across 14 starts in 2024. Given those solid pitching numbers, though, see what you can get for him via trade. He has been great for most of the year, but injuries remain a problem. So, if you can trade him away right now, it might be worth it come playoff time. 

Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena started off the year red-hot. Through June 9, Pena had a .300 average with five home runs, 10 doubles, one triple, and 24 RBI in his first 65 games. But since then, the 26-year-old has cooled off significantly at the plate. 

Over his last 29 games, Pena is hitting just .213 (23-for-108) with two HRs, six doubles, and 17 RBI. Those recent numbers at the plate have surely brought up if the Astros shortstop should be dropped in some leagues heading into the All-Star break. The answer to that really depends on your league size and who you could replace him with on waivers. 

Jeremy Peña breaks the deadlock with a laser to left. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/YBusJOTbEU

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2024

Nonetheless, in some leagues, fantasy managers should consider dropping Pena. He hasn't shown much power at the plate since his rookie campaign -- totaling 10 HRs in 2023 -- and this year, he is on pace for just 12 long balls. With his batting average continuing to drop, it might be time to cut bait on the young shortstop in fantasy. 

Bryson Stott, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott broke out last year in his second major league season. Stott hit .280 with 15 HRs, 32 doubles, 62 RBI, and 31 stolen bases. However, the 26-year-old has taken a step back in 2024. 

Stott is hitting just .238 with six HRs, 12 doubles, 42 RBI, and 22 stolen bases through 90 games this season. The Phillies second baseman is also in a rough slump at the plate, batting a mere .206 (33-for-160) with one home run, seven doubles, and 12 RBI since May 23. On top of that, his expected batting average (.255), expected slugging (.374), average exit velocity (86.2 mph), and hard-hit rate (29.8%) all rank in the bottom half of the league. 

However, given Stott's potential, he shouldn't be dropped in most leagues. Rather, fantasy managers should be looking to sell him heading into the All-Star break. If you can't find a trade partner, hold him for a few more weeks and see if he can turn it around in the second half. 

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