RADIO
It was a decent start to the NFL season for me from a DFS prognostication standpoint. My Jalen Hurts-to-A.J. Brown advice was sound, Miami’s passing attack played well, Michael Thomas looked strong, and Saquon Barkley ended up exceeding expectations. However, none of my lineups had all the right pieces fit together, so I didn't have too much success in tournaments.
We move to Week 2, which features some heavy favorites (Rams, 49ers, Browns) but just one game with a Vegas total above 50 (Cardinals at Raiders). There are some egregiously priced stacks on this main slate that I will highlight, but overall, I think it could be a fun one. Let’s dive in.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back & possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-priced stack (DraftKings)
Russell Wilson ($7200) + Courtland Sutton ($6100) AND/OR Jerry Jeudy ($5600)
Slotting in as the slate’s third-highest-priced QB on DK, Russell Wilson is fairly expensive in this home matchup with the Texans. However, his top two receiving options are entirely too cheap for their upside in this spot.
Let’s start with Courtland Sutton, who ranks sixth in the league in air yards after Week 1 (121), according to Daily Roto. His 17.2 aDOT is also the highest among receivers who were targeted at least six times in Week 1. Sutton has been a deep threat for the entirety of his career, but he finally has a QB that can convert those valuable looks into fantasy points. His price is laughable in Week 2.
Jerry Jeudy showed just how different life will be for this receiving duo with Wilson under center when he snared a 67-yard touchdown on Monday Night Football on his way to a 4-102-1 stat line. Now Denver’s offense will line up across from the Texans’ defense on Sunday, a unit that just yielded a league-high 517 total yards and 340 passing yards to Matt Ryan and the Colts.
It could be a game of whack-a-mole when choosing between Sutton and Jeudy each week for DFS, much like the Tyler Lockett-DK Metcalf dilemma we faced frequently in recent years. But Denver is heavily favored here and this will be Wilson’s first real game in front of the Broncos faithful. Broncos country, let’s ride!
Preferred bring-back: Brandin Cooks ($6000)
Leverage piece: Albert Okwuegbunam ($3700)
With wonky preseason usage, some were worried about the physical specimen that is Albert Okwuegbunam. But the 24-year-old played 68% of the Broncos’ snaps in Week 1, catching 5-of-6 targets and making a handful of clutch catches on the final drive of the game.
With ownership likely to condense around Sutton, Jeudy, and Javonte Williams in this game, Albert O is an appealing leverage play with the talent to produce a slate-winning score at tight end. Don’t be shocked if he finds the end zone on Sunday.
High-priced stack (FanDuel)
Matthew Stafford ($7600) + Cooper Kupp ($9700) AND/OR Allen Robinson ($5700)
Installed as 10.5-point favorites by Vegas against the Falcons, the Rams are matched by only the Raiders on this main slate for an implied team total (29 points). That means touchdowns should be easy to come by for Sean McVay’s club.
Underwhelming big time in Week 1, Matthew Stafford is positioned for success in Week 2, facing an Atlanta defense that coughed up 269 passing yards and two touchdowns to Jameis Winston last Sunday. Only the Giants allowed more 20+ yard completions than the Falcons did in Week 1 (six).
Cooper Kupp will be worth a pretty penny to roster on both sites this weekend, but the guy is a straight-up alpha. He’s drawn double-digit targets in 15 of his last 18 games, and he’s hauled in at least seven catches in 16 of his last 18. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup than the one he has on Sunday.
The squeaky wheel narrative could also come into play in Week 2, as Allen Robinson was nonexistent in his Rams debut. Turning in a pedestrian one catch for 12 yards while running 39 routes is #bad. But better days are ahead for A-Rob, especially if we trust this quote from McVay regarding Robinson’s involvement:
“I think being able to have some more intentionality about that,” McVay said. “Being able to call some plays where he’s the primary. … Allen is certainly somebody that needs to be more involved and get more opportunities.”
Preferred bring-back: Drake London ($5600)
Leverage piece: Tyler Higbee ($5300)
Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell was PFF’s sixth-graded cornerback in 2021. He will likely be locking horns with Kupp or Robinson for much of the day on Sunday. This could free up Tyler Higbee for an uptick in targets (he saw 11 in Week 1). He’ll be low-owned and would provide nice leverage off of Kupp, Robinson, and Darrell Henderson (who should be very chalky).
Mid-priced stack (DraftKings)
Trey Lance ($5700) + Deebo Samuel ($7800)
Over my years of playing DFS, I’ve developed a very contrarian mindset/brand of play. There were three stacks listed within my notes for this section, but I landed on the most contrarian of the bunch here with Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel.
After an offseason of hype for Lance and a summer of over-drafting for “regression-bound” Samuel, this pairing could go completely overlooked this weekend. The latest memory engrained in peoples’ minds is the sloppiness that played out in “Hurricane Chicago” at Solder Field.
Back on the west coast at Levi’s Stadium for a matchup with the Seahawks, you couldn’t draw up a better bounce-back scenario for not only this duo but the entire Niners squad. Seattle ranks 30th in pass defense after Week 1, as they were picked apart for 330 yards, four completions of 20+ yards, and one completion of 40+ yards.
Losing Elijah Mitchell in the opener is critical here. Samuel could reprise his “wide back” role of 2021, where he turned eight of his 59 carries into touchdowns. On top of that, the fourth-year pro has absolutely terrorized Seattle throughout his career; he’s averaged 123.3 receiving yards per outing against the Seahawks. This offense will flow heavily through No. 19 — per usual.
The rationale behind the Lance call is that last week’s subpar play could have soured some on the talented young signal-caller (even if that’s completely unreasonable). His price does not match up with his intriguing upside. I’m calling it now: Lance to Deebo for a long TD (or two) in Week 2.
Preferred bring-back: Tyler Lockett ($5600)
Leverage piece: Brandon Aiyuk ($5100)
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Brandon Aiyuk come up big in this spot either. Honestly, every 49ers offensive skill player is in play for DFS this week. But if you want to take a stand on the much cheaper Aiyuk ($2700 cheaper than Samuel), that could pay off in a big way and save you some salary for the rest of your lineup.
Mid-priced stack (FanDuel)
Carson Wentz ($7400) + Terry McLaurin ($7300) AND/OR Curtis Samuel ($5700) AND/OR Jahan Dotson ($5500)
The much-maligned Carson Wentz is the NFL equivalent of a rollercoaster — lots of ups and downs that usually result in a headache. But he looked sharp in his Washington debut, and that momentum is very likely to continue into Week 2 against a porous Lions secondary.
Detroit allowed the third-most passing touchdowns, 10th-most passing yards, and the 10th-most FanDuel points to QBs last season (pro-football-reference.com). And they’re fresh off getting eviscerated by Philly’s offense for 459 total yards. The only notable upgrade Dan Campbell’s team made to their defense this offseason was Aidan Hutchinson, but this secondary should get torched by the aforementioned WRs.
Curtis Samuel was the top receiver for the Commanders in Week 1, but Terry McLaurin is Washington’s clear deep threat; the 27-year-old saw just four targets on Opening Day, but his aDOT was 18.8 (seventh in the league) and he drew two deep targets. Much like Philly’s alpha A.J. Brown dominated the Lions’ secondary last week, I expect more of the same here with McLaurin.
Stacking Wentz with two-plus receivers here is recommended, and the prices are not very restrictive for the rest of your lineup. Detroit’s defense is awful and their offense is very talented; that’s a recipe for DFS stacking success.
Preferred bring-back: T.J. Hockenson ($5700)
Leverage piece: Antonio Gibson ($7400)
For as bad as Detroit’s pass defense was last year, their run defense was that much worse. Only four teams served up more rushing yards per game than the Lions (135.1), and only the Jets and Seahawks allowed more FanDuel points per game to the RB position.
Antonio Gibson was left for dead just a few short weeks ago. Now’s the time to roster the talented third-year back when market sentiment is low — in a very solid matchup.
Low-priced stack (DraftKings)
Mitch Trubisky ($5000) + Diontae Johnson ($5800) OR Chase Claypool ($4700)
The offensive line is certainly a concern for Mike Tomlin’s club, but Pittsburgh will likely need to move the ball via the passing game in Week 2. Bill Belichick’s Patriots surrendered the fifth-lowest yardage total on the ground in Week 1 (65) to the presumed run-first Dolphins — while getting touched up for 270 passing yards by Tua Tagovailoa.
Mitch Trubisky has proven time and time again that he’s not a great quarterback. However, his trio of receiver weapons is priced closer to their floors than their ceilings. I wouldn’t recommend rostering more than one Steeler with Trubisky, but when you can roster both a QB and his receiver for less than what Cooper Kupp costs on this slate (Trubisky and Claypool = $9700; Kupp = $9900), that’s a nice bargain.
New England is likely to deploy a run-heavy game plan against Pittsburgh, as Mac Jones is on the injury report with a back injury. The Steelers are dealing with injuries of their own as well, as Najee Harris has a foot injury to keep an eye on. With the Pats favored in this game, combined with Harris’ ailment, Tomlin would be smart to dial up a pass-heavy approach to possibly jump ahead and force New England into pass mode.
Johnson and Claypool have both displayed tremendous upside in past seasons — but in different ways. Johnson has caught six or more balls in exactly 50% of his career games (25-of-50). Claypool has amassed 10 games of 70 or more receiving yards in his short career, and who can forget his four-touchdown eruption from his rookie season?
The Steelers will NEED to throw in order to move the ball against New England. Bet on the talent of Johnson and Claypool at these prices.
Preferred bring-back: Damien Harris ($5500, with the idea NE will lean heavily on the run game here)
Leverage piece: George Pickens ($3600)
He wasn’t heavily involved in the season opener, but George Pickens still had some encouraging usage in Week 1. The rookie out of Georgia saw three targets, hauling in one of them for just three yards. However, his aDOT was 14.7, which ranked 16th across the league.
The 6-foot-3 receiver ran 34 routes and had a route participation rate of 84.2%. What does this mean? It means he was at least on the field running routes on the majority of Pittsburgh’s pass plays. At $3600, a 5-50-1 stat line is more than enough to send you up leaderboards with a low-owned wide receiver with upside.
Low-priced stack (FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa ($6800) + Tyreek Hill ($8000) OR Jaylen Waddle ($7200)
If Week 1 is any indication of how Miami’s offense will operate all year, it’s safe to assume that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be the key cogs. The duo combined for 17 targets on 33 Tua throws, with Hill seeing 12 of them. Week 2 pits this trio against a talented Baltimore team that is somewhat under the radar after Week 1.
When stacking football games, it’s advised to target offenses with talent on both sides. This game fits that description with Hill and Waddle on the Miami side and Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews on the other. Along with that, though it’s a small sample, both Miami and Baltimore rank top 12 in rush defense to start the year.
The Vegas total sits at 45.5, but the tight spread remains 3.5 in favor of Baltimore. If neither team is able to find success on the ground, there could be more pass volume than expected — which is more conducive to big plays, and more plays in general.
Tua Tagovailoa racked up 270 passing yards and 14.8 FanDuel points in Week 1, without being pushed by his opponent. Baltimore, in theory, should give Miami all they can handle, and that will force Miami’s signal-caller to keep his foot on the offensive gas pedal here.
Preferred bring-back: Rashod Bateman ($6400)
Leverage piece: Chase Edmonds ($6000)
It was far from an efficient Week 1 for Miami’s new starting running back, but Chase Edmonds still mustered 16 touches in his first game with the team. Baltimore ranked bottom seven in 2021 in receiving yards allowed to running backs, and they served up 13 catches to a combination of Breece Hall and Michael Carter in Week 1.
The matchup is strong for Edmonds from a receiving standpoint, but if Miami is playing from behind, as Vegas projects, his upside could be even higher as the primary receiving back within McDaniel’s offense.
That does it for Week 2. Good luck this weekend! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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