Welcome one and all to the 2016 fantasy football season. We’re just one long day away from the first of 512 regular season games, which will undoubtedly be filled with lots of triumph and heartbreak, gloating and shame. We are gathered here today to take a look at my rankings for Week 1 and how they stack up against the Expert Consensus from FantasyPros, commenting on some standouts and points of contention.

Let’s get right to it.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium research/cheat sheets), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Week 1 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

The first thing anyone is going to notice is that I have Drew Brees at #1 against a #4 consensus average. The two biggest things that people knock Brees for is his age/durability and his home/road splits. This is the first game of the season so his arm is fresh, and it’s home in the dome. While many of the top QBs could easily take the top spot, I’d throw my weight behind a 100% Brees at home in a game that could easily turn into a shootout.

A notable QB that I’m lower on than most looks to be Philip Rivers. While it’s unwise to rely on data from old seasons, Rivers has notably flopped in his last three matchups against KC. I mean flopped. We’re talking zero touchdowns and four INTs with an average of 244 yards per game type of flop. Yeah, he has Keenan Allen and a fresh Antonio Gates around him, but there are just plenty of better options out there.

Week 1 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

There’s quite a bit of late movement here to comment on, as Thomas Rawls is still up at #22 despite the news breaking that he’ll likely be eased into the action in Week 1. Spencer Ware’s slot is rather spot on. I know Arian Foster is facing Seattle, but Miami is likely going to be playing from behind early and often here. That means plenty of dump-off passes and a good gamescript for Arian to see some action. It doesn’t have to be pretty, it just has to be there on the stat sheet when all is said and done.

Part of me wants to put Rashad Jennings higher, but I hate how well Dallas can control the clock and slow the game down. Perhaps that changes with Prescott under center, but it’s unlikely given the foundation they have with their run game. I also like Matt Forte more, as the Khiry Robinson injury really does his stock well in my book. He doesn’t need to rack up five catches anymore, as he should see the goal-line work (even if he isn’t particularly good at it).

Week 1 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

The top WRs are almost entirely in line with the consensus, interestingly enough. It stands out to me that Larry Fitzgerald remains ahead of John Brown in standard, though at least Michael Floyd is easily the highest of the Arizona trio. Perhaps people are (rightfully) scared that Brown’s concussion symptoms take him out.

I’ve got Eli Rogers at 54 vs. a consensus of 66, as I’m really in on this Pittsburgh attack and how much Rogers has apparently gained the confidence of his quarterback and his coaches. Washington’s secondary doesn’t frighten me. I would definitely want him over names like Terrance Williams, Pierre Garcon, Kenny Stills, Terrelle Pryor and the like surrounding him.

Rookies get a lot of buzz, but I don’t think Laquon Treadwell’s 68 is low enough. I don’t want any part of him at the beginning of the season, perhaps ever this season (unless an injury opens the door or he just balls his way into a starting role). He’s behind Charles Johnson, Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright and even Adam Thielen to open the season. He also needs to build up rapport with a new QB now. Let him prove it before you rely on him in any way.

Week 1 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Dwayne Allen is a top-10 play according to the consensus, but I’m just not there yet. I know Andrew Luck is healthy and he’s the starting TE, but I don’t know how capably he can carry that load yet after being used to block so often in the past.

I also like Jesse James a bit more than the pack, perhaps for the same reason that I liked Eli Rogers. James is a huge target (literally, he’s 6’7”) for Ben Roethlisberger and caught a TD from Big Ben in the all-important third preseason game.

Also, I’ve got Jimmy Graham seven slots lower than the consensus. I don’t trust him to hit the ground running after last season’s brutal knee injury, and even Pete Carroll hasn’t committed to him suiting up for Week 1. I should probably have him even lower, but on the off-chance he does start I suppose he could back his way into a wayward TD.

Week 1 Kickers - Rankings Analysis

Don’t overthink it. I tend to check the Vegas odds and target kickers on good offenses, but who also face a defense that won’t be a total pushover. Honestly, even that’s probably overthinking it. Be sure you aren’t starting Josh Brown (suspended), Connor Barth (cut), Kai Forbath (cut), Josh Scobee (cut). Ideally, you’re not starting Randy Bullock either.

Week 1 Defenses - Rankings Analysis

I’m not too keen on starting the Denver Broncos in their Super Bowl rematch, but at least they’re at home in their precious thin air. This is directly tied to how much you trust Trevor Siemian to not leave their defense high and dry. I’m also 10 spots lower than everyone on the Raiders, which I suppose is connected to me being higher on Drew Brees than most. Ditto with the Jaguars against Aaron Rodgers.

I have the Patriots at #15 against a #10 consensus mark, as I don’t see much reason to lean on them when they have to hit the road to face a very good, well-rounded Arizona offense. This also ropes in Jimmy Garoppolo being able to deal with Arizona’s defense and not leave his defense winded in the late-game. I do agree that the Chargers and Saints are my two least favorite defenses though. No one should be dealing with that unless you’re playing some Bizarro-ball.