We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 5 Outliers

October 8, 2019

Week 5 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought many surprises and unexpected sleepers and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances in order to provide reasonable advice to fantasy owners.

In Week 5, there were several players that exploded in fantasy lineups, scoring multiple touchdowns. Wide receivers Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson all had multiple receiving touchdowns and should have been in fantasy lineups in leagues of all sizes. Although these studs had huge performances, Week 5 was likely their ceiling, as you cannot count on a player to score two or more touchdowns on a weekly basis. On the other side of that, Houston Texans tight end Darren Fells, who is owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues, caught two touchdowns off of just two targets.

At the running back position, Aaron Jones had a monster game, putting up 182 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches, but his yardage total was actually overshadowed by the fact that he scored four touchdowns against the Cowboys. Jones is capable of putting up yardage totals like he did in Week 5 if the matchup is right, but you simply can't count on a multiple touchdown game, this was likely the best game of his career.

The quarterback position proved to be volatile in Week 5. The list of top-12 fantasy quarterbacks included some of the usual characters, like Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes. However, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers were very underwhelming, while Teddy Bridgewater uncharacteristically finished as the QB4 on the week. While Bridgewater was able to take advantage of a great matchup, Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers fell victim to game flow and they simply didn't need to put the ball in the air a lot. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and all we can do is evaluate how to move forward for Week 6.

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)

Week 5 Stats: 17 of 29, 189 yards, 1 TD

The Philadelphia Eagles Defense only gave up 128 yards of total offense to the New York Jets in Week 5, sacked Luke Falk 10 times and scored two defensive touchdowns.

Bottom Line: Jordan Howard had a rushing touchdown and the Eagles scored two defensive touchdowns. As a result, their offense didn't need to push the issue in order to come through with the win. The Week 5 game script didn't go Wentz's way, so don't panic, Wentz is still a QB1 and he will get DeSean Jackson back soon, which will only help his production.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, NO)

Week 5 Stats: 26 of 34, 314 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

Bridgewater threw for 9.2 yards-per-attempt against the Buccaneers. Prior to Week 5, his highest YPA was 6.6 which came in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Bridgewater also threw the ball for a season-high 34 times in Week 5.

Bottom Line: This was a very good matchup for Bridgewater and we likely witnessed his best game of the 2019 season, especially since Drew Brees appears close to returning to action.

Philip Rivers (QB, LAC)

Week 5 Stats: 32 of 48, 211 yards, 2 INT

Rivers threw the ball a total of 48 times in Week 5 but only mustered 4.4 yards-per-attempt. Keenan Allen drew coverage from Chris Harris for much of the day which slowed him down, and Mike Williams had an inefficient day, catching just six of his 13 targets.

Bottom Line: Rivers has at least two touchdowns and over 300 yards passing in three out of five games so far this season. Moving forward, it's going to be hard to trust Rivers unless the matchup is extremely inviting. Rivers is a QB2 in 12-team leagues and occasional streamer, but his outlook will improve if he gets Hunter Henry back.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Week 5 Stats: 22 of 34, 238 yards

Aaron Rodgers was without his favorite wide receiver, Davante Adams, in Week 5 and he struggled to connect with his other receiving options. The Packers, however, took an early lead on the Cowboys and were able to control the game by running the ball throughout the contest. In 2018, the Packers threw the ball on 67.54% of offensive plays, while through five weeks of the 2019 season, that number is down to 59.94%. Aaron Rodgers has only topped 250 yards passing once this year, and that came in Week 4 against the Eagles brutal pass defense.

Bottom Line: The Packers have a good defense and if their offense can control the ball on the ground, they will.  Rodgers is passing the ball about 8% less than he did last year and currently sits as QB19 on the season. Aaron Rodgers is officially a QB2 in 12-team leagues if you haven't already come to that realization.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

Week 5 Stats: 19 carries, 107 yards, 4 TD, 8 targets, 7 catches, 75 yards

Aaron Jones scored four touchdowns in Week 5 against the Cowboys, finishing the week as the top running back in fantasy football. Jones now has eight touchdowns on the season and has scored in four out of five games.

Bottom Line: Aaron Jones plays 62.64% of the offensive plays on the season, and even without Jamaal Williams in the lineup, he played 67.6% of the snaps in Week 5. Jones will come through if the matchup is right, and it's more likely than not that he scores on a week-to-week basis. Jones should be locked into your lineups as an RB1, but if there's an owner in your league that's willing to pay a premium in a trade after his breakout performance, you should consider selling high, because his value will never be higher than it is now.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Week 5 Stats: 3 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards

Between the Buccaneers wide receivers, Chris Godwin definitely had the better cornerback matchup heading into Week 5, going up against PJ Williams for much of the day. Still, nobody could have reasonably expected Mike Evans to put up a zero in the stat column. For what it's worth, Jameis Winston was under constant pressure from the Saints Defense, taking six sacks, and the Saints made an effort to take Mike Evans out of the game. Moreover, the Buccaneers didn't run many offensive plays in Week 5, and as a result, Winston only threw the ball 27 times.

Bottom Line: Hold steady on Mike Evans and don't sell low. The emergence of Chris Godwin has created some week-to-week volatility for Mike Evans. If defenses roll coverage towards Evans, Jameis Winston can throw to his other high-end option, Godwin. There may be some more bumpy weeks ahead, but Evans demonstrated in Week 4 that he needs to be in fantasy lineups.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)

Week 5 Stats: 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards

The Broncos jumped out to an early lead against the Chargers in Week 5, and as a result, Joe Flacco only threw the ball 20 times while the Broncos ran the ball 32 times nursing a lead.

Bottom Line: Sanders is still a high-end WR3, hold steady.

Steven Sims Jr.  (WR, WAS)

Week 5 Stats: 1 carry, 65 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 2 catches, 1 yard

In Week 5, Steve Sims Jr. played on 54.2% of the Redskins offensive snaps. Prior to Week 5, Sims only played 8.43% of the Redskins offensive snaps. Sims has big play ability and the Redskins may be looking to give their young guys an opportunity.

Bottom Line: This game got out of hand for the Redskins in what ended up being Jay Gruden's last game as their Head Coach. Terry McLaurin is clearly the Redskins No. 1 wide receiver, but the Redskins may give Sims, who is a speedster, more playing time if they need some juice on offense. Monitor reports out of Washington regarding this kid, he may be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.

Darren Fells (TE, HOU)

Week 5 Stats: 2 targets, 2 catches, 20 yards, 2 TD

Darren Fells was the fantasy TE2 on the week and did so off of just two targets. Through the first four weeks of the season, Fells played on 61.42% of offensive snaps and that number jumped up to 79.5% in Week 5.

Bottom Line: Even after his Week 5 performance, Fells only has 13 targets on the season. The Texans had an offensive explosion in Week 5, scoring 53 points, and if you add Fells, you are only chasing his points.

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