X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Buys/Sells - Using Expected Statistics to Find Regression Targets

bryson stott fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups MLB injury news

Using expected offensive statistics such as xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG, we can locate some hitters who could be heading for major regression (positive or negative). Statcast is not a perfect science as there are nuances to batted balls that don't account for human abilities and or limitations. xBA is typically lower for speedsters who can dink singles and on the flip side higher for hard-hitters who are slow.

Not to say it all must be taken with a grain of salt but there is certainly reason for pause on particular players. Statcast is a fantastic tool that helps fantasy managers see the true abilities of players but is better utilized later in the season when more batted ball data is available.

For now, Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) takes a look at early regression candidates and what measures to take in fantasy with them moving forward.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

Positive Regression - Fantasy Baseball Buys

MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals

Actual Stats: .156 AVG / .266 SLG
Expected Stats: .226 AVG / .504 SLG

Melendez has factors beyond luck working against him such as a 33.8% strikeout rate, however, when he does make contact, it is loud and worthy of buying. 74 PA is still an extremely small sample to determine that he will sit above 30%+ strikeouts all season as he has not dealt with such issues since his early minor league days of 2019.

The Royals continue to bat Melendez within the top of the order and he is still taking walks at a high 12% clip. The BABIP will naturally adjust from .231 to at least .250 as it was last season. From there, he will get the ball over the fence in the coming as the weather warms up and luck shifts back his way.

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

Actual Stats: .153 AVG / .254 SLG
Expected Stats: .260 AVG / .479 SLG

Naylor is far from worth giving up on. The dual-eligible power/RBI threat is a sleeping giant in a talented offense that has seen other studs like Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell struggle to start this season. Naylor is starting against LHP occasionally as well, putting aside any doubt as to whether the team believes in him. While Naylor is better utilized as a platoon bat in fantasy, his presence is no doubt an impact as he had 20 HR, 79 RBI, 6 SB, and a .256 avg in 2022 fresh off ankle surgery the season prior.

Alek Thomas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Actual Stats: .200 AVG / .345 SLG
Expected Stats: .312 AVG / .496 SLG

Thomas regularly bats toward the bottom of the order for Arizona but that may not be for long. Thomas is far and away making the best contact of any Diamondbacks hitter to start this season and it is only a matter of time before regression comes to fruition. Thomas is unlikely to crack a .300 average or 20 HR due to his groundball-heavy prowess but there is a viable fantasy bat in here even without the speed that's possessed.

Thomas has the benefit of playing the OF at a near-elite level to keep him in the lineup through slumps. It is so good that he even manages to face LHP despite a .420 OPS against them since 2022.

Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers

Actual Stats: .216 AVG / .314 SLG
Expected Stats: .278 AVG / .434 SLG

Miguel Vargas suffered a thumb injury during Spring Training that limited him but not enough to delay his start to the season. The 23-year-old second baseman had been deemed a potential Rookie of the Year candidate as expectations mounted after Gavin Lux's unfortunate injury and that upside is still possible! Unfortunately, his own teammate James Outman is leading the race at the moment while he underperforms expected numbers by a significant margin.

Vargas's xwOBA is 45th in the MLB while his actual wOBA is a slightly above-average 113th. That gap should close in the coming weeks as the Dodgers' offense naturally figures itself out.

 

Negative Regression - Fantasy Baseball Sells

Chas McCormick, Houston Astros

Actual Stats: .275 AVG / .500 SLG
Expected Stats: .193 AVG / .302 SLG

McCormick is a complete fugazi with numbers this bad. While the jump in steals is a fantastic boost to his fantasy value, the regression monster is looming. Also, McCormick is currently on the IL due to a back issue and may be limited physically upon return as a result. If rostered, a grace period of a week or so is fair to see if his early-season luck continues but more than likely he's universally dropped come May.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins

Actual Stats: .213 AVG / .412 SLG
Expected Stats: .187 AVG / .343 SLG

Chisholm's fall from grace is disappointing. The general fantasy value for Chisholm is still positive due to 3 home runs and 6 stolen bases but a 39% K is eye-popping, to say the least. His other surface numbers aren't even impressive enough to worry about any negative regression that may come his way later. 2023's MLB the Show cover athlete was a budding superstar last season prior to a season-ending back injury but now one must wonder whether that injury is either limiting his body or causing him to play scared.

Hunter Renfroe, Los Angeles Angels

Actual Stats: .263 AVG / .487 SLG
Expected Stats: .221 AVG / .382 SLG

Hunter Renfroe has more power in his bat than his Statcast numbers suggest given his history of previously strong data but this start to the season is certainly something to keep an eye on. Renfroe has always been a streaky hitter and maybe lucked into a few home runs thus far. However, he is always good for a hot month or two where the ball is absolutely smoked making this regression candidate forgivable.

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies

Actual Stats: .360 AVG / .472 SLG
Expected Stats: .273 AVG / .364 SLG

Bryson Stott is not tough to make a case against given that he is not producing monster fantasy numbers outside of his average. His hit streak to start the season is fun but does very little for fantasy managers outside of points leagues. While Stott can continue to outperform his expected average and end up on the fringe of .300, it will not matter if the runs, HR, or RBi are not present. He can be dropped at the first sign of struggle.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford10 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White11 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl12 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon12 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter12 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic12 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio12 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday12 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton12 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid12 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray13 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert13 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James13 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez13 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis13 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama13 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards13 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell13 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith14 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks14 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green14 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson14 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson14 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman14 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray14 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar14 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams14 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres15 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard15 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson16 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer16 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen16 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers16 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers17 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers17 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar17 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark18 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers18 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB18 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels18 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB18 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby19 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith19 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds19 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti20 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga20 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain20 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim21 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA21 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry21 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox21 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak21 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan22 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg22 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn22 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby22 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin23 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord23 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala23 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark24 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler24 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser1 day ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More