Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Joe Mixon, John Brown, Calvin Ridley

October 20, 2019

Craig Rondinone looks at some fantasy football booms and busts for Week 7 lineups. These NFL players could be high-upside flex plays, or options to avoid.

Will Week 7 be a lucky week for fantasy football players?

Fantasy players will not have to worry about Jameis Winston throwing interceptions, Baker Mayfield missing receivers by miles, or backup quarterbacks ruining JuJu Smith-Schuster’s fantasy value thanks to their teams being on bye. Fantasy players will still have to win by picking the perfect booms and avoiding the worst busts, though.

Here are my under-the-radar booms and busts for Week 7!  I hope I hit a couple mammoth home runs like I did last week with the Minnesota duo of Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs! Good luck, RotoBallers!

Week 7 Lineup Booms

Joe Mixon (CIN, RB) vs. JAX

Jacksonville just traded away talented cover corner Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams for two first-round draft choices, so that is not going to do much for the morale of the Jaguars Defense. The Jags front seven has not been as dominant as they have been in years past (25^th against the run in 2019) and might not be motivated much after the Ramsey deal. Cincinnati is 0-6 and has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which has meant nothing but bad news for Mixon and his fantasy owners. This week is the time for the Bengals stop bungling their running game, though, and for Mixon to have his best game of the season. 125 combined yards and a score is not out of the realm of possibility here for Mixon. 

Calvin Ridley (ATL, WR) vs. LAR

Speaking of Mr. Ramsey, he has gone from Jacksonville’s outhouse to L.A.’s penthouse and should be in uniform for the Rams this Sunday. The Rams have overhauled their secondary quicker than my wife overhauls our home décor as soon as the season changes from Summer to Fall. The good news for Ridley is that Ramsey will likely be covering Julio Jones, while Ridley will be running routes against cornerbacks who were No. 3 or No. 4 on L.A.’s depth chart as of two weeks ago. Ridley has been surprisingly productive considering how well tight end Austin Hooper and No. 3 WR Mohamed Sanu have played this season, and I think he should do very well this weekend against a Rams defensive backfield in transition.

Mike Williams (LAC, WR) at TEN

Let’s try this again. I keep thinking Williams is going to give fantasy players that breakout, two-TD, highlight-reel 100-yard game, yet he keeps coming up shorter than Sky Low Low. He has made some progress, though, as he has posted back-to-back 70-yard games. More importantly, Williams was targeted 23 times over those two contests. Tennessee is ranked sixth against the pass this season, but five of their games came against passing attacks that are not currently ranked in the top 15. Williams is getting healthier and better, and he should be able to post some serious points this weekend. Philip Rivers has had games where he has zoned in on Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Now it is Williams’ turn.

John Brown (BUF, WR) vs. MIA

Miami had its chance to win its first (and possibly only) game of the season last week against Washington and came up a point short. The Dolphins will not come anywhere near as close to winning this week on the road against a 4-1 Buffalo team coming off a bye. Brown is the Bills leading receiver, has not had fewer than 50 yards in a game all season and is overdue to have the same type of game he had Week 1 against the New York Jets (123 yards, one TD). The Dolphins have allowed Baltimore’s Marquise Brown, Dallas’ Amari Cooper, and Washington’s Terry McLaurin to each have two-TD games against them this year, so locking down No. 1 receivers is not their strong suit. Brown could very well have 120 yards and be the fourth WR to get multiple touchdowns against the NFL’s 26^th-ranked pass defense.

Week 7 Lineup Busts

Jason Witten (DAL, TE) vs. PHI

Dallas and Philadelphia's Monday night matchup is intriguing on several levels, most notably that both slumping squads are tied atop the mediocre NFC East. This year Witten has been as solid as dependable as he was right before he retired. He started off the year with touchdowns in back-to-back games and has now topped the 50-yard mark in three of his past four games. He has had trouble getting open against this division rival, however. In Witten's last four games against Philadelphia, he has only caught six passes for 50 yards and one TD. Even with their terrible secondary situation, the Eagles have been doing a decent job covering tight ends as only Green Bay's Jimmy Graham has caught a touchdown and had more than 50 receiving yards versus them in their past five games. Witten will not do much Monday night.

Adrian Peterson (WAS, RB) vs. SF

A.P. easily had his best game of the season this past weekend when he rumbled for 118 yards against the hapless, hopeless and winless Miami Dolphins. But be honest. You know someone in your family who could probably run for 100 yards against Miami, right? Maybe a speedy stepbrother or a seedy uncle who has a history of outrunning the police? San Francisco is ranked sixth against the run and will overpower Washington’s Trent Williams-less line on running plays. Peterson will have less room to run than the dog do at Puppy Bowl. Find another runner to be a boom for ya.

Delanie Walker (TEN, TE) vs. LAC

Walker and his fantasy value has suffered badly with Marcus Mariota at the helm of Tennessee’s offense this season, especially in recent weeks. The longtime veteran has only been able to muster five receptions for 57 yards over his last three games.  Backup Jonnu Smith had 57 yards on one catch two games ago. The Chargers have the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL, but Walker’s bigger issue is that Ryan Tannehill will be throwing to him. Do you remember many tight ends having huge years during Tannehill’s tenure in Miami? Charles Clay had 759 receiving yards in 2013. Otherwise, Tannehill did as much for tight ends as holding your breath does for hiccups. Look for Walker to have three catches for 32 yards this Sunday.

David Montgomery (CHI, RB) vs. NO

Chicago’s early-down rookie runner is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has not rushed for more than 70 yards in a game yet. Whether Chicago’s pedestrian offense is manned by Mitchell Trubisky or Chase Daniel, New Orleans will force the Bears to pass and stack the box against Montgomery. This is bound to be an ugly game that ends up with an odd final score like 9-2 or 11-10. It will not be one for the fantasy football faint of heart. Montgomery is going to bury his helmet into big bodies and finish with only 40-50 yards, and he will have to earn those yards. Until Chicago’s passing game keeps defenses honest, Montgomery is a tough weekly play.

More Weekly Lineup Prep