Trade your Studs?

Brett Mitchell advises fantasy football managers to be active in the trade market by selling stud players to maximize return.

I debated writing this article and risking my reputation as a super famous sportswriter by suggesting such a controversial strategy. But then I realized without risk, like grabbing Ja’Marr Chase in the sixth round, there is no glory.

Back to the topic at hand, I will pose this question, “Is depth more valuable than star players this year?”

The increase in injuries and COVID cases in recent years as well as the extended season has made me truly ponder this question as we enter our first bye week.

Are Injuries Up?

I’m not going to bore you with statistics, but I am going to make a prediction because I’m a data scientist (I kid) and I love to speculate. The first undeniable fact is that we have dealt with COVID over the last two years, which has added to missed time. The other fact is that the preseason has been made shorter, leading to more injuries. Most importantly, it just seems like the number of injuries have exploded leaving many fantasy teams reeling to find replacements from a pretty depressing waiver wire.

A large percentage of fantasy’s top players have sat out (for various reasons), will sit out, or are playing through injuries (Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Antonio Gibson, Calvin Ridley, Chris Carson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, George Kittle, J.K. Dobbins, Amari Cooper, Gus Edwards, Julio Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr., Josh Jacobs, Russell Wilson and many more.)  That’s over 25% of the top 60 or so picks that have led to precarious start/sit and roster decisions.

Trading Norms

The usual mindset when trading is for fantasy managers to look for an upgrade to their existing player or players. With the exception of one (1) for one (1) trades, teams look to package two (2) players for one (1) higher-rated player. Now usually this is a no-brainer with most managers being stoked to land a superstar for two (2) inferior players. A great example this year would be teams packaging two (2) players for Christian McCaffrey, such as Antonio Gibson and Keenan Allen or D.J. Moore and Kareem Hunt (just citing examples I am not sharing my opinion on these trades).

Other common trades included teams trying to sell high by packaging Mike Williams, Cordarrelle Patterson or Ja’Marr Chase with another player for more credible starts like Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs or DK Metcalf. It is usually considered a win for the team that receives the superstar player; usually to a team that has a winning record and leverage over losing teams. But maybe this season is the season we need to all think of the alternative.

Can depth outlast star power?

As we enter the first bye week after a brutal week of injuries and in a season that has one (1) extra game, maybe the teams with the greatest depth will outlast the teams who opted for star power. In fact, I am going to make a bold prediction that teams with deep lineups and deep benches, filled with players that are performing rather than lottery tickets, will outpace others in the second half.

Perhaps we should be selling high if our teams are imbalanced to create this depth and prepare for a long season to come. Players are dropping like flies and the waiver wire looks weaker than any season I can remember, so think about trading away some of your big guns for multiple players.

Who to buy or sell

Sell players that are performing well and/or players with big names.  I could sit here and list the top three draft picks but I won’t bore you. My favorite candidates are Mike Williams, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs etc.

Some of the buy candidates are actually the same as the sell. Try to buy guys that are crushing it using big names. For example, maybe selling Tyreek Hill for Mike Williams and Derrell Henderson.  Otherwise, use big-name credibility to make other one for two trades.

This truly is the season of Squid Game and your players are heading out there each and every week playing Red Light, Green Light 1-2-3.  A team with depth, especially through the buy weeks can follow the path to fantasy gold.

Sincerely,

Brett Mitchell @BrettMitchellFB

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