Top 20 Outfielders - Dynasty Prospect Rankings

March 14, 2021

Marc Hulet's top 20 outfielder dynasty prospects rankings for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. He looks at the fantasy values of these MLB prospects and rookies.

If you’ve played fantasy baseball for a while, you know how hard it can be to find enough quality outfielders to field a competitive team all year long. The good news for fantasy managers is that there are some big names on the way, thanks in part to the 2020 amateur draft which had a strong contingent of high-ceiling outfielders come out of the prep ranks.

Looking at established MLB outfielders over the past two years, there is a solid group of players already. In 2020, 36 outfielders (minimum 150 AB) reached 120 wRC+ or better. Another 18 hitters were at least league average at 100 wRC+. During the last full season in 2019, 41 outfielders were at 120 wRC+ or better while 87 hitters were at or above 100 wRC+. But when you’re in a 10- or 12-team league with five outfield spots to fill, quality (and healthy) outfielders can get snapped up pretty quickly.

Today, we’re taking an in-depth look at the Top 20 dynasty outfielders in baseball — most of whom should be well-above-average hitters in time. There is a good mix of present value (2021 arrivals) and long-term investments. You can also review the other positions that were previously reviewed here: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, and Shortstop.

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Tier 1

1. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners (TOP 250 Rank: 1)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power, Speed, OBP
Roadblock: Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Kelenic is the top outfield prospect in the game and he’s a five-tool player with the potential for a Mike Trout-like impact. Coming out of high school, he was known as an advanced hitter but the power developed much more quickly than expected. He has a quick, short swing that generates surprising power. He has a chance to hit 30 home runs with relative ease given recent developments. He also has the speed to steal 20 bases or more but, as he continues to fill out, he’ll likely slow down and run less. Kelenic has an outside chance to secure an opening day role with the Mariners as he could easily out-hit Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop. The maturity and makeup for this budding star are also off-the-charts similar to Trout but the Mariners outfielder will likely be more comfortable in the spotlight.   

2. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (TOP 250 Rank: 5)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power
Roadblock: Mitch Haniger (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: The Mariners organization has an impressive pair of outfielders on the way with Rodriguez a step or two behind Kelenic. The young Dominican native had a breakout 2019 season and continued to impress at the fall instructional league. The biggest concern I have with Rodriguez is that he’s already proving to be injury-prone and he missed time in both 2019 and 2020 (at the alternate training site). He tried catching up for the lost time in the Dominican winter league but he struggled against much older competition. Rodriguez is a natural hitter with strong bat speed and plus raw power but he needs to get back on the field and stay healthy for an extended period of time in 2021.

3. Alex Kirilloff, Twins (TOP 250 Rank: 9)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power
Roadblock: Jake Cave, Brent Rooker (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: I’ve been driving the Kirilloff bandwagon for a couple of years now and he appears ready to take a stranglehold on a permanent big-league role in 2021 — even with a lot of outfield depth in the organization. Kirilloff should hit for both power and average at the MLB level, although he was hitting too many balls on the ground in 2019 at double-A and needs to make tweaks to his swing to maximize his launch angle. He has the necessary skills to stick in left field but he may never be better than average. Kirilloff could also see time at first base and the added versatility would improve his fantasy value even further.

4. Dylan Carlson, Cardinals (TOP 250 Rank: 11)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power, OBP
Roadblock: Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Carlson had a rough MLB debut in 2020 but he’s still just 22-years-old and generated a 42% hard-hit-ball rate in 119 plate appearances. The raw power is real and he runs relatively well. There could be 30-homer, 10-12 stolen base upside here. To hit for a higher average, Carlson will need to improve against the soft stuff offered up to him. He struggled mightily against both changeups and curveballs during his debut. He’s shown a willingness to take a free pass in the minors so he should have added value in on-base leagues. Carlson has a good shot at securing a regular role in 2021 and has a higher upside than Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas.

5. Riley Greene, Tigers (TOP 250 Rank: 14)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power, OBP
Roadblock: Christin Stewart, JaCoby Jones (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Greene continues to impress me. After having an outstanding spring training in 2020, he’s looking good once again in 2021 despite the lack of a traditional minor league season last year. He’s a strong, confident hitter who has a chance to hit for both average and power in the middle of the Tigers lineup for a long time. He’s not ready for The Show just yet but he could probably handle the double-A competition. Greene reminds me of a young George Springer at the plate but without the speed element to his game.

6. Zac Veen, Rockies (TOP 250 Rank: 17)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power
Roadblock: Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2023

Need to Know: Like Greene above, Veen is another player that I loved more than the consensus — although both were highly regarded amateur prospects. He’s similar to Greene as a young left-handed-hitting outfielder with a nice swing and raw power potential — although he has a little more speed and could nab 15-20 bases a year before slowing down. Getting drafted by Colorado is a double-edged sword. Veen should be able to produce plus power in Coors Field but I don’t love the Rockies’ player development system. With any luck, the talented hitter will nonetheless succeed and join Trevor Story in the middle of the Rockies’ lineup within three to four years.

7. Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (TOP 250 Rank: 18)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power, OBP
Roadblock: Clint Frazier (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2024

Need to Know: With the delays to the 2021 minor league season, Yankees fans are going to have to wait even longer for Dominguez to make his official pro debut. The ongoing delays cannot be good for a player in this situation but the Yankees have a strong development system so he’s no doubt getting good instruction. Dominguez has plus-plus raw power and solid speed for his size but we won’t really get a good feel for his hit tool until he starts facing pro pitching on a regular basis in game situations.

8. Trevor Larnach, Twins (TOP 250 Rank: 19)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power, OBP
Roadblock: Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff (Threat Level: HIGH)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Larnach is a talented outfield prospect who faces some stiff competition for playing time at the MLB level thanks to the presence of some solid veterans as well as fellow prospects Alex Kirilloff and Brent Rooker. He’s not a natural hitter like Kirilloff but Larnach has more useable raw power (30+ homer potential) and should also get on base at a good clip due to his willingness to take a free pass.

9. Randy Arozarena, Rays (TOP 250 Rank: 20)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Power, Speed
Roadblock: Yoshi Tsutsugo, Manuel Margot (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: I’ve been a huge fan of Arozarena for a few years now and projected this kind of breakout back in late 2017 but I’ve been a little cautious with my ranking as we enter into the 2021 season. Success like Arozarena had last year can go to a player’s head and cause them to remain unfocused during offseason training. On talent alone, he could fit in the three-to-five range if he can maintain the balance between the pure hitting and the power that he showed in the playoffs. Arozarena has a chance to be a .280-.300 hitter with 20-30 home runs. He’s slowed down a bit but he could still offer double-digit steals, as well.

Tier 2

10. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (TOP 250 Rank: 39)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Speed, Average, OBP
Roadblock: Ketel Marte (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Carroll would be higher on this list if his power output was easier to project. He’s gone deep just twice in 42 pro games but he has excellent bat speed and strong arms, which could eventually lead to 15-20 homers as he matures. He also needs to tweak his launch angle to hit fewer ground balls (56% in rookie ball). Carroll has plus speed and could eventually hit .300 with 20-30 steals.

11. Robert Hassell III, Padres (TOP 250 Rank: 45)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, OBP, Speed
Roadblock: Trent Grisham (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2023

Need to Know: From a pure hitting perspective, Hassell III was behind only Zac Veen as the best prep hitter in the 2020 draft. The big question for the Padres prospect is around his power output. He still has a lot of physical maturing to do and he has a narrow build but I think he’ll eventually be able to hit 20 home runs. He’s in a great development system to realize his full potential.

12. Jo Adell, Angels (TOP 250 Rank: 46)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power
Roadblock: Dexter Fowler, Brandon Marsh (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Adell has slid down the rankings a fair bit to begin the year. His contact issues over the past two years are worrisome and were somewhat masked by strong BABIPs, which he didn’t have the benefit of during his MLB debut. If he’s slugging 30-40 home runs, it’s a lot easier to look past the whiffs but he has yet to show that consistent, sustained power. The tools and the makeup are there for Adell to have success but he needs a start showing some improvements to keep pace with fellow Angels prospect Brandon Marsh.

13. Brandon Marsh, Angels (TOP 250 Rank: 61)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Speed, Power
Roadblock: Dexter Fowler, Jo Adell (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: The Angels organization has always loved to draft athletic players out of high school — even if those players needed a fair bit of work to develop their baseball talents. Such was the case with Marsh who was also a high school football player. He has 20-20 (HR-SB) potential but he has yet to surpass 10 home runs in a season because he hits so many balls on the ground. Marsh reportedly impressed staff during his time at the alternate training site where he hopefully worked on hitting more fly balls.

14. Cristian Pache, Braves (TOP 250 Rank: 62)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average
Roadblock: Ender Inciarte (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Pache has long been admired for his plus defensive skills in the outfield but he’s been overlooked as a hitter because he’s regularly been three to four years younger than the league averages. He’s also added muscle and is starting to hit more balls out of the park; he has the frame and the bat speed to hit 20+ homers. He has good speed but he’s never shown much base-stealing aptitude.

15. JJ Bleday, Marlins (TOP 250 Rank: 65)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power, OBP
Roadblock: Adam Duvall, Magneuris Sierra (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Bleday is a player that could move up quickly on this list in 2021 if he shows some polish. I just haven’t had a chance to get a good read on his approach at the plate with the lack of a minor league season in 2020. Bleday showed plus power in his final college season and should be able to produce 20+ home runs in the Majors but I caution investing in him too heavily before seeing some in-game success at double-A and above.

Tier 3

16. Brennen Davis, Cubs (TOP 250 Rank: 72)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Speed, Power
Roadblock: Jason Heyward (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Davis appeared to be on the cusp of a true breakout after the 2019 season but the pandemic kept him from being able to follow up with his first full season in pro ball. He’s a very toolsy player who has developed in-game power more quickly than expected. The lack of experience is the only thing holding him down in the rankings. Once he shows he can replicate the success in full-season ball then he could rise quickly.

17. Kristian Robinson, Diamondbacks (TOP 250 Rank: 73)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power, Speed
Roadblock: Kole Calhoun (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Robinson is a well-rounded player for the most part although his hit tool is a significant question mark. He could easily develop into a 20-20 player with power to spare but he has holes in his swing and may only hit in the .240-.250 range. Despite going deep 14 times in 2019, Robinson has room to improve his fly-ball tendencies after generating a ground-ball rate near 50%. He’s a player that may have been hurt by the layoff in 2020 given his need for improved contact.

18. Alek Thomas, Diamondbacks (TOP 250 Rank: 75)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Speed
Roadblock: David Peralta (Threat Level: MEDIUM)
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: The Diamondbacks system is loaded with outfield talent and Thomas has a chance to be another good hitter for the organization. He doesn’t have a lot of home-run potential with his current approach but he should hit for average, provide lots of gap pop and steal some bases once he polishes his base running.

19. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (TOP 250 Rank: 76)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Power
Roadblock: Austin Hays, D.J. Stewart (Threat Level: LOW)
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: If I had Mountcastle ranked as a first baseman, he’d be the third-overall prospect at that position which shows how good the outfield depth is this season. He’s further down the line in a talented outfield mix in part because I’m waiting to see that his improved 2020 approach carries over to 2021. Mountcastle could provide impact power but he traditionally posts low on-base numbers and modest batting averages. His successes in 2019 and 2020 were driven by high BABIPs and his xBA in 2020 was just .266.

20. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mets (TOP 250 Rank: 83)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Average, Speed, OBP
Roadblock: Brandon Nimmo (Threat Level: HIGH)
ETA: 2023

Need to Know: Crow-Armstrong entered pro ball with a reputation for being a strong defender with good speed who had some question marks around his offensive profile. I have more confidence in his ability to hit than some and feel he’ll provide a strong average, 15+ home runs, and 20+ bases.

Just Missed

• Heliot Ramos, Giants
• Leody Taveras, Rangers
• Drew Waters, Braves
• Austin Hendrick, Reds
• George Valera, Indians

Three names to watch: Luis Matos (Giants), Erick Pena (Royals), Hedbert Perez (Brewers)

These are three very toolsy prospects with high ceilings. You could argue they belong in the Top 20 but there are also a handful of these types of prospects every year — some that have staying power and some that disappear within two to three years.

Matos has the most experience with a season in the Dominican Summer League under his belt from 2019 — and five games in North America (rookie ball). He’s not a huge player but he has room on his frame to add strength and — with his plus bat speed — he could eventually produce 15-20 home runs. He also has good speed and a solid eye at the plate.

Pena is significantly bigger than Matos and looks very much like a power-hitter-in-the-making. He’s not a natural hitter like Matos and the Royals’ prospect has noticeable swing-and-miss to his game due to an under-developed approach against breaking balls and off-speed pitches.

Perez has a chance to be a five-tool player with excellent makeup and pedigree as the son of a former big leaguer (Robert Perez). The power is the least developed tool at this point but there is 20-20 upside.

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