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Dave Ventresca analyzes three 2023 NFL playoff teams that will regress during the 2024 NFL season. What may be the reasons why these teams struggle in 2024?
One of the greatest things about the NFL is the amount of parity we see in the league from year to year. We routinely see worst-to-first stories take place. Just last season, the Houston Texans emerged from relative obscurity to win the AFC South and advance to the Divisional Round of the postseason. Stories like this are what make the NFL such an intriguing and fun watch every Sunday.
However, with new contenders emerging each year, that means we have several teams who fall from grace and miss the playoffs. Whether it’s due to bad personnel decisions, poor coaching, horrible injury luck, or just overall lousy play, we see playoff teams regress every year and quickly enter a rebuilding phase.
Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your NFL and fantasy football needs. Here are three 2023 playoff teams that will regress during the 2024 NFL season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were one of the NFL’s feel-good stories in 2023. Not much was expected after future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady decided to call it a career following the 2022 season. However, new starting quarterback Baker Mayfield enjoyed a career year and led the Buccaneers to their third straight division title.
BAKER MAYFIELD TOUCHDOWN!
DIME!!!!
— Savage (@SavageSports_) January 21, 2024
It was a great story, but several factors are working against Tampa Bay this year. Per FTN Fantasy, Tampa Bay ranked 20th in Offensive DVOA (second worst among all playoff teams) and 18th in Total DVOA (worst among all playoff teams). The Buccaneers also ranked 23rd in both offensive yards per game and defensive yards allowed per game. Once again, both these marks were second worst among all 14 playoff teams. Their rushing game also wasn’t very efficient (28th in Offensive Rush DVOA) and while Mayfield enjoyed a career resurgence, it didn’t lead to an extremely prolific passing offense (16th in Offensive Pass DVOA).
So, where did Tampa Bay excel? Per Sharp Football, the Buccaneers finished 10th in injury luck, ninth in fumble luck, and third in field goal luck. Tampa Bay also was very good at turning over opposing offenses and limiting its own turnovers, finishing ninth in turnover margin. There is a lot of turnover (no pun intended) with these metrics from year to year, and it’s highly unlikely Tampa Bay will fare well in all of these areas again in 2024.
The team also must overcome the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He helped guide Mayfield to his best season as a pro, and we should expect the QB to take a step back without Canales. This could be a major issue for the 2024 Buccaneers. All of this will make it hard for the team to compete unless we see big improvements in other areas.
Overall, the Buccaneers are a team primed for regression in several key areas. Their Caesars Sportsbook win total currently sits at 8.5 and is juiced to the under. It makes for an intriguing bet when you consider all the things that had to go right for Tampa Bay to eclipse this total in 2023. It still gets to play in the cakewalk that is the NFC South, but it’s hard to feel good about this team when you look at everything that had to go right for it to get to nine wins in 2023.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 was more of the same for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s superior coaching and a stellar defense carried the team to the postseason while the offense struggled to consistently score points. This is what happens when you are relying on a Matt Canada/Kenny Pickett play-caller/quarterback combination.
49ers DB Talanoa Hufanga with the interception off of Steelers QB Kenny Pickett. pic.twitter.com/MfFwrkymNF
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) September 10, 2023
In an attempt to fix what plagued the team last year, Tomlin hired Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator and signed Russell Wilson to be their new starting quarterback. While Wilson is undoubtedly an upgrade at the position, he’s clearly a player in decline. He does fit well with what the Steelers want to do on offense and can still be an effective game manager. Pittsburgh also added Justin Fields to the quarterback room. He might offer more upside if Wilson and this offense continue to scuffle.
Playing in the gauntlet that is the AFC North, the road back to the playoffs will be difficult. With RotoBaller’s third-toughest- projected strength of schedule, it’s going to be an uphill battle for this team to finish with a winning record. If any coach can make it happen, though, it’s Tomlin. He has never finished with a losing season in 17 years as Pittsburgh’s head coach. However, the “grind it out” approach to winning games is a risky prospect. It feels like the hourglass is running out of sand on Tomlin’s approach and streak of winning seasons.
Dallas Cowboys
Following the Cowboys’ disheartening Wild Card loss to Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, owner Jerry Jones stated the Cowboys would be “all-in”’ for the 2024 season. Since that comment, here is a summary of Dallas’ main offseason acquisitions:
MLB Eric Kendricks
This hardly looks like a team pushing all its chips toward the center of the table. It’s more like saying you’re “all-in” and then throwing a ham sandwich in the middle of the poker table and expecting everyone to take you seriously.
Dallas made virtually no improvements to its roster while losing several key members. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was hired by the Washington Commanders to take over as head coach. Longtime left tackle Tyron Smith departed in free agency to join the New York Jets, and last year’s starting running back, Tony Pollard, also left to join the Tennessee Titans. Dallas did make several additions to the offensive line during the NFL Draft, but it’s unknown how much its rookie class will help the team.
Looking at them on paper, it’s hard to say the Cowboys are better than last year’s team. With RotoBaller’s 12th-hardest- projected schedule, a repeat as division champs might not be in the cards. With other NFC contenders making moves to actually improve their rosters, a return to the postseason will be tough. Head coach Mike McCarthy will be coaching for his job this year, and quarterback Dak Prescott is playing for a new contract. There’s a lot of motivation for a good season in Dallas, but it remains to be seen if motivation is enough to overcome this team’s flaws.
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