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Just when you might have thought that the biggest NFL offseason player moves regarding veterans had mostly passed by now, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans completed a headline-grabbing trade on Wednesday. In a move that significantly elevates the outlook of the Houston offense and at least temporarily muddles the receiving picture in Buffalo, Stefon Diggs was dealt to the Texans.
According to ESPN, the Bills received a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Diggs, a 2024 sixth-round pick, and a 2025 fifth-rounder. Not too long ago, the four-time Pro Bowler was regarded as one of the very best WRs in fantasy football, but he is coming off a 2023 campaign in which he did not perform well later in the season. Whispers of unrest between the star wideout and QB Josh Allen may have ultimately played a notable role in the decision to jettison him.
From fantasy football perspectives, we now have to examine how Diggs could fare in a more crowded WR room in Houston. But the move obviously upgrades the projected production for C.J. Stroud in 2024. The Buffalo WR depth chart now is awfully thin after Gabe Davis also signed with Jacksonville, but we cannot assume that the current depth chart will look as concerning a few weeks from now.
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Fantasy Football Impact for the Houston Texans
In the latest RotoBaller offseason fantasy football rankings, Stroud ranked fifth before the trade behind Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. Last season, he finished as QB11 overall and 10th in points per game at QB. While it is certainly possible that the second-year man could finish ahead of any in that quartet in 2024 and Stroud is now a “sexy” upside play, I still rank him behind those more established QBs. Three of them are proven and prime rushing threats and the other is simply the best pure passer in the game.
Stefon Diggs’ new look: pic.twitter.com/CULuRctCDY
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 3, 2024
The Diggs pickup, however, puts Stroud firmly in the same tier/range of top QBs for the upcoming season. Many FFPC and NFFC high-stakes players might pick Stroud earlier than Jackson or Allen if his WR corps is not significantly bolstered soon. There is a drop-off at QB after Stroud is off the board, as the next group will consist of the likes of Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and Anthony Richardson. Stroud can be definitely marked as a top-five QB for next season, as he is the most appealing non “dual-threat” type of passer behind Mahomes.
Diggs was the clear alpha when he was with Buffalo, but he consistently lacked reliable complements. That won’t be the case in Houston, where he will be surrounded by Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and TE Dalton Schultz. The assumption will be that Diggs is still the WR1 with his new team, but this trade now bumps down the potential production of all the Texans pass-catchers while boosting Stroud’s ceiling.
We could have envisioned Diggs possibly regaining No. 1 fantasy WR status had he remained in Buffalo. That is just not going to happen now with Collins, Dell, and Schultz all sharing targets with him. The final numbers for the 30-year-old still looked good enough, as he finished with over 100 catches for the fourth consecutive season and registered 1,100-plus yards for the fifth straight year while totaling eight TD receptions. But he let many fantasy players down when it counted most.
In 2023, Diggs did not catch a TD pass after Buffalo’s Week 12 bye, and in Weeks 14 through 17, he did not catch six passes in a game. During that span, the longtime standout had three sub-30-yard outings and the other was a 48-yard performance. It was a very frustrating final run of games in the fantasy playoffs.
Diggs turns 31 in November and some fantasy players might think the late-season swoon was a signal that his career decline has truly begun. But working with other top targets in Houston, rather than being in the full crosshairs of opposing defenses, could work in Diggs’ favor. I would not expect 100 receptions in 2024, but similar yardage and TD totals to last season are certainly possible. Last year’s final numbers in those departments will be his projected ceiling.
Collins, who was seventh in FPPG last year (17.4) and finished as WR12 overall, still has a lot of promise as a fantasy WR2, although hopes of a fantasy WR1 season in 2024 seem to be dashed. He ranked as WR12 on RotoBaller before the trade, but now he gets moved down to more of the mid-WR2 range. Diggs will help him by commanding much defensive attention, so Collins may be viewed as more of a Tee Higgins/Jaylen Waddle type. Of course, if Diggs continues to slip, higher-end WR2 production is not out of the question.
Dell, who is recovering from a major leg injury, now sees his value take a significant hit. Fantasy players won’t be able to depend on him for consistent production, and I don’t want to draft him as a WR3 in seasonal formats. Dell’s dynasty appeal also tumbles now. I view Schultz as a shaky top-15 TE. I like the trade for the TD potential of Joe Mixon, as he can finish off many scoring drives for a potent offense.
Podcast: Mike Florio of RotoBaller's first views on the Stefon Diggs trade.
Fantasy Football Impact for the Buffalo Bills
As of this writing, the top of the Bills’ WR depth chart consists of the newly acquired Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Justin Shorter. Samuel did not finish in the top 40 at WR last season and averaged 9.8 points per game. Shakir has never been reliable for fantasy purposes. But we have to reserve some judgment for now on how the trade will truly impact the Buffalo offense.
The deal does indicate that Buffalo expects to feature Dalton Kincaid more, and he should be considered a potential top-five fantasy TE. Yet, how the Buffalo WR corps looks now likely won’t be how the depth chart appears in a few weeks. Another trade should not be fully ruled out, and the Bills could either take a rookie WR in the first round at No. 28 or trade up to nab one of the best prospects available. The bottom line is Buffalo’s replacement for Diggs should be on the way soon.
LSU’s BrIan Thomas Jr. is a dual size/speed threat who could be available with a move upward inside the top-20 range, and Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, Texas’s Adonai Mitchell, and Oregon’s Troy Franklin could be other quick-impact targets in the area of where Buffalo picks now in the first round. In free agency, signing Odell Beckham Jr. or Tyler Boyd could round out a trio with a prime rookie and Samuel, who at least temporarily has to be regarded as a fringe fantasy WR3 type.
Josh Allen now gets the chance to prove he doesn’t need Stefon Diggs anymore just like Patrick Mahomes proved he didn’t need Tyreek Hill.
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) April 3, 2024
James Cook might also see a notable increase in receiving targets and has some more lure as a top-15 RB. The type of pass-catching help Allen gets in the weeks ahead can determine if he dips within the top five of the QB ranks.
For more offseason fantasy football context, consult my Top 25 NFL Offseason Moves for fantasy purposes, which was written before the Diggs trade.
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