RADIO
Steve Halupka ranks the best & worst offensive lines in the NFL heading into Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season. This could impact fantasy football value at QB, RB, and WR.
At a certain point of every season, it’s time to re-examine what we believed to be true early in the season to see if that is still the case as we head towards the fantasy playoffs. Teams change throughout the season as sometimes injuries cause head coaches’ plans to alter, and in other instances, coaches do a great job self-scouting and figure out the best ways to maximize the talent around them.
One such case has been the Indianapolis Colts. First-year head coach, Frank Reich, has developed a game-plan that fits in with his team’s strengths. He’s getting the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands quicker than in year’s past (2.61 seconds per throw vs. 2.88 in 2016). It may not seem like much, but a split second can mean the difference between a hit on your quarterback and keeping the franchise player upright and healthy.
This week I’ll take another look at the Indianapolis Colts offensive line to see how they’ve improved since week 1’s match-up against the Bengals. Have the rookies up front made that much of a difference for the Colts, or is Andrew Luck just working his magic to perfection? Can we depend on the Colts running game going forward with Marlon Mack heading up a three-pronged attack? Those questions and more answered below.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Indianapolis Colts
There is certainly something to be said for a group that has vastly improved from 2017 to 2018. Most thought the Colts were on the right track when they selected Quentin Nelson and Braden Smith early in this year’s draft. Little did we know how much of an impact these two players in combination with a revitalized Ryan Kelly at center would do to improve this unit overall.
The Colts are currently third in the NFL in sack rate coming in at just 4.2%, only giving up 10 sacks in 2018 year to date. They’ve rallied to become one of the better units in the league versus 2017, where the team was dead last in sack rate at 10% (56 sacks for the season). Not only has youth and health both been on the side of the Colts, but scheme as well.
The Colts are doing things that are characteristic of the best offensive line units in the NFL. In this first clip on a 3rd and 9, the Colts pick up this line stunt fairly easily. What can be lost on the casual observer is the initial punch by center Ryan Kelly. The strength of Kelly’s punch knocks the looping defender off course and he is unable to come around to get a pressure on Andrew Luck. Another aspect is the help that is provided by rookie Quentin Nelson. He checks the B-gap defender first and when that defender tries to rush outside, he comes to aid the rest of his linemates to ensure there is no inside pressure on Luck.
This perfect harmony can be seen later in the game on another 3rd down. The Titans attempt another stunt up front, and even though they are able to knock down right guard Mark Glowinski, the Titans are unable to get home. Left tackle Anthony Costanzo does a great job scanning the defense after his most dangerous threat drops into coverage to pick up another looping defender. Andrew Luck casually slides to his left and delivers a first down.
This unit is very, very impressive overall. Rookie right tackle Braden Smith has stepped in well for Joe Haeg and has improved to a top half of the league offensive tackle mid-way through his rookie season. Nelson, who struggled a bit early on, is proving why he’s deserving of the number six overall selection in this year’s draft, grading out as the number 11 offensive guard according to Pro Football Focus. He has been solid in both the run and the pass game, grading out at a 65 in the run game and a strong 78.5 in pass protection. While most thought that Nelson would certainly shine as a rookie, the big surprise is the Colts' other guard, Mark Glowinski. Glowinski is filling in for Matt Slauson, who was put on IR earlier this season. After some early career struggles, Glowinski is now the number seven guard according to Pro Football Focus, grading out at a 74.8.
This entire line is helped out by one of the best blocking tight ends in all of the NFL in Jack Doyle. Doyle has been incredibly consistent over the past few seasons, with no season under a 70.8 grade since 2013. He’s blocking at a near Pro Bowl offensive lineman level, grading out at a 76.9 in run blocking and 80.9 in pass protection. His run blocking dominance can be seen in this outside zone run to the left on first down. The combination block between Doyle and Costanzo is masterful. Doyle is able to turn his hips and wall off the defender, setting the edge, and making an easy read for Nyheim Hines. Doyle even gets a knockdown at the end of this play for good measure, while Costanzo gets to the second level and temporarily locks up the oncoming defender.
The strides this unit is making can not only be seen on the plays above, but also bear out in the reduction of the number of runs that are being met at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Colts are currently third in the NFL in “Stuffed” rate according to Football Outsiders, with only 16% of runs being tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Their improvement in the run game, coupled with their massive successes in keeping Andrew Luck upright has made the Colts a near-elite offensive line in the NFL.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: T.Y. Hilton
It’s about time TY Hilton and Andrew Luck demonstrated that they are one of the elite combinations in all of the NFL. Hilton is coming off a massive game in which he burned the Titans Adoree Jackson for a deep score. Those deep scores can come in bunches for Hilton, especially on the fast track in Indy. TY hasn’t been called on to carry the load for most of the season, as Andrew Luck has spread it around to all his wide receivers, but Hilton is trending in the right direction, and should be a safe low-end WR1 in all formats going forward.
Cause for Concern: Marlon Mack
Since his return in Week 6, Mack has certainly been the Colts number one running back. He’s seen games of 12,19,25,12, and 16 carries, which would make you believe that Mack should be in for a massive workload down the stretch. To quote a famous man, “Not so fast my friend.” Mack will be facing the Jaguars and Texans in weeks 13 and 14, which are brutal match-ups for running backs. Ride him out this week against the cupcakes that are the Miami Dolphins, but he will be nothing but a low-end flex come the final weeks of the fantasy regular season.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Los Angeles Rams
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Green Bay Packers
5) Indianapolis Colts
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Buffalo Bills
31) Arizona Cardinals
30) New York Jets
29) Minnesota Vikings
28) New York Giants
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
