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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 7 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Miami.
Week 7 College Football Playoff Projections
What just happened?
Winless UCLA played host to Penn State this weekend. It should have been a Nittany Lions blowout victory, but instead Penn State somehow lost, falling 42-37 and dropping the team not just from the playoff field, but from the AP Top 25 entirely.
Another team from last week’s playoff projection that dropped all the way out of the Top 25? Texas, which lost 29-21 to Florida. That means the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the AP’s preseason poll are both out, and it’s only the second week of October. Who moves into their spots? Here’s what the CFP field looks like heading into Week 7.
12. Memphis
Last Week: Not Ranked
Like I’ve been saying, the highest-ranked conference champion in the final CFP rankings is going to be whoever wins the American. That’s even more true following a Boise State loss to Notre Dame, which puts the top non-American contender in a hole. Last week, I had North Texas here, highlighting the Mean Green’s undefeated start.
On Friday, UNT hosts South Florida in a huge game, and the winner of that might be the new American favorite, so I want to take this week as a chance to highlight Memphis. The undefeated Tigers haven’t played the toughest schedule, but you can only beat who’s in front of you. Last week, quarterback Brendon Lewis threw three touchdowns and rushed for another in a 45-7 win over Tulsa.
11. Georgia Tech
Last Week: Not Ranked
There are 10 teams that feel solidly in right now. Things might get weird if Texas Tech runs the table and then loses in the Big 12 title game, but for now, the top 10 positions feel set. But whew — that 11th spot is up for grabs. LSU, Tennessee, and Missouri are all contenders for it, but I think Georgia Tech’s schedule shakes out better. The Yellow Jackets don’t play Miami or Florida State in the regular season, putting the team in a good spot to get to 11-0 heading into the season finale against Georgia.
Get a win there and it’d be almost impossible to leave the team out, no matter what happens in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, LSU has four more games against ranked teams. Tennessee has three more. Missouri might be in the best shape of that SEC trio; it has four more ranked games, but also more margin for error, as the team hasn’t lost yet.
10. Texas Tech
Last Week: 10th
Texas Tech stays at 10 after a 35-11 win over previously unbeaten Houston. I debated moving the Red Raiders to ninth, but it’s important to note that the team has no wins over teams that are currently ranked. Still, this team is the class of the Big 12 so far and will have a great shot to run the table, assuming it can beat Arizona State on the road on Oct. 18.
9. Indiana
Last Week: 11th
Indiana was off last week, but moves up due to two teams ahead of it losing. The Hoosiers also jump Texas Tech because Indiana’s win over Illinois is better than any of Texas Tech’s wins. None of this matters, though. Indiana goes on the road against Oregon this week, and that game will determine where the Hoosiers rank in the CFP rankings going forward.
Get a shock win, and Indiana is probably suddenly in the running for a bye. Lose a close one, and the team should be right around this same spot. Get blown out, and the path to a playoff spot gets a little murkier, though with no more ranked teams left on the schedule, it will climb back in as the SEC cannibalizes itself.
8. Georgia
Last Week: Seventh
Dropping Georgia down to eighth after a win over Kentucky might seem insane, but I’m losing some confidence in Gunner Stockton.
Besides that, the SEC teams that Georgia is behind are all teams Georgia should be behind. Three of the remaining four SEC teams in these rankings are undefeated. The other has a head-to-head win over the Bulldogs.
7. Texas A&M
Last Week: Eighth
The Aggies climb one spot after a dominant 31-9 win over Mississippi State. It wasn’t the greatest game we’ve seen from A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, but Rueben Owens II rushed for 142 yards, and the defense held the Bulldogs out of the end zone until late.
A&M’s playoff future looks bright. The undefeated Aggies play just two more ranked teams, and neither of those teams is even in this playoff projection. They got really, really lucky with their schedule this year, especially since Texas is currently in the process of falling apart.
6. Alabama
Last Week: Sixth
If we erased the season opener against Florida State from existence, Alabama would be in contention for a top-three seed. As it stands now, the Tide sits in sixth after picking up its second ranked win in a row.
This time, it was a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt, with quarterback Ty Simpson throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns while the Alabama defense picked off Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia twice.
5. Oklahoma
Last Week: Not Ranked
Okay, okay, okay. I was wrong. I thought losing John Mateer would put the Sooners in a bad spot with games against Texas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss coming up, but Mateer is reportedly pushing to return for the Red River Showdown on Saturday. If he only misses the Kent State game, then Oklahoma is right back on track for a playoff berth.
Even if he winds up missing this game, Oklahoma can beat Texas with Michael Hawkins Jr. under center, but the team needs Mateer for the game against the Gamecocks on Oct. 18.
4. Ole Miss
Last Week: Fourth
Alright, time for the boring part of things. The top four this week are the same top four as last week in the same order.
Of these four teams, Ole Miss is the most likely to drop out because of the difficult upcoming schedule. For now, though, the Rebels are undefeated with wins over Tulane and LSU. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been one of the best surprises in college football.
3. Miami
Last Week: Third
It was tempting to move Miami up to No. 2 after its 28-22 road victory over Florida State, which is the third ranked win this season for the Hurricanes.
For now, though, Miami remains in third, for no other reason than that the two teams ahead of them would probably be favored against them on a neutral field. However, Ohio State and Oregon have more chances to lose than Miami does since they’re likely heading for a Big Ten title game showdown, so the Hurricanes have a path to at least No. 2 if they go undefeated.
2. Oregon
Last Week: Second
I went back and forth on whether to drop Oregon to No. 3 following Penn State’s loss to UCLA. The Ducks’ best win suddenly looks a lot worse after that.
Ultimately, though, I believe the Ducks are one of the two best teams in the country, and I believe they’re going to prove that on Saturday when they face Indiana.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
The No. 1 team in the country is still the No. 1 team in the country.
On Saturday, Ohio State defeated Minnesota 42-3, with quarterback Julian Sayin throwing three touchdown passes in the win. The Buckeyes played Texas close in the opener, but the last four games have been blowout victories. I’d expect similar against No. 17 Illinois this weekend.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oklahoma
- No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Alabama
- No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Texas A&M
- No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
