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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 6 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Miami.
Week 6 College Football Playoff Projections
We just had a wild weekend of college football action, which saw Penn State, LSU, and Georgia all lose, shaking up the projected College Football Playoff field.
That includes LSU falling out of the rankings. Sure, the Tigers are still 4-1, but it’s been pretty clear for a while that this wasn’t an elite team and that losses would come. LSU can get back in by winning out, but I just don’t think the Tigers are going to win out.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma remains out of these rankings despite sitting at No. 5 in the AP poll. That’s all because of my skepticism about how the team will look while quarterback John Mateer is sidelined, but there’s a good chance I’m just incredibly wrong about that. After a week full of shake-ups, let’s take a look at the 12-team CFP field as we head into Week 6.
12. North Texas
Last Week: Not Ranked
Okay, hear me out on this one. The No. 12 spot in these rankings is basically going to boil down to whoever wins the American championship game. I don’t see any other conference champion finishing ahead of the American champion in the CFP rankings. Therefore, we might as well highlight an American team other than South Florida, right? So, let’s talk about North Texas.
The Mean Green are 5-0 for the first time since 1959 thanks to the shocking play of quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who leads the American in touchdowns and adjusted yards per attempt. UNT is off this week, but its next game on Oct. 10 will either solidify its spot in the rankings or knock them out, because it’s against South Florida.
11. Indiana
Last Week: 10th
This feels like splitting hairs. Indiana falls one spot despite a win because the team struggled a bit against unranked Iowa, winning 20-15.
Fernando Mendoza is still probably the best quarterback in college football, but Indiana has two pretty scary games still to play, including the team’s next contest on Oct. 11 when it goes on the road to take on Oregon.
10. Texas Tech
Last Week: 11th
Texas Tech was off this past weekend, but it looks like the class of the Big 12 at the moment after a big win over Utah back on Sept. 20.
Tech goes on the road this weekend to face an undefeated Houston team, a game with major playoff implications. The top of the Big 12 is tightly packed right now, and every game between the top contenders is going to matter.
9. Texas
Last Week: Ninth
I’m not dropping Texas since it didn’t play this week, but I’m still not sold on this Longhorns team. This week’s road game against Florida feels like one that could trip up Steve Sarkisian’s program.
Luckily for the team’s playoff chances, the Red River Showdown on Oct. 11 won’t feature Oklahoma starting quarterback John Mateer, which is a huge win for Texas.
8. Texas A&M
Last Week: Eighth
Texas A&M has a pretty great schedule for an SEC team, as the team won’t play Ole Miss, Georgia, or Alabama.
The Aggies will have to play LSU, Missouri, and Texas all on the road, but they can likely still make the playoffs as long as they win one of those three games, provided they run the table against unranked teams.
7. Georgia
Last Week: Second
Georgia suffered its first loss of the season against Alabama, falling 24-21. That came just one game after the team only defeated Tennessee by three points.
Georgia dropped all the way to No. 12 in the AP poll, but I think that was too big of a drop. Losing by three to a team led by a potential Heisman finalist quarterback in Ty Simpson just doesn’t feel like a bad-enough loss to drop the Bulldogs that far.
6. Alabama
Last Week: Not Ranked
Welcome back, Alabama! The Crimson Tide dropped a surprise game to a very good Florida State team to open the season, but have won three in a row since, including last week’s win over Georgia.
Now, the team has to play five of its next six against ranked teams, so there are plenty of chances for the team to stumble. However, Ty Simpson is playing some of the best football in the nation and Alabama feels like it might officially be back.
5. Penn State
Last Week: Fourth
Yes, James Franklin feels historically bad at winning big games, but you really can’t drop the Nittany Lions too far after a double-overtime loss to an Oregon team that might be the best team in the country.
Penn State might no longer be in line for a bye, but this is still a very good football team with only two more ranked teams left on its schedule.
4. Ole Miss
Last Week: Not Ranked
Ole Miss makes an insane jump this week, from not being ranked last week all the way up to the No. 4 spot this week. What happened?
Well, Ole Miss beat LSU, pushing the team to 5-0, which includes a dominant win over Tulane, one of the nation’s best Group of Five programs. There are just two more ranked teams left on the Rebels’ schedule, so an undefeated season is not out of the question. That has to be factored in to this projection.
3. Miami
Last Week: Third
Miami was off this past week. This Saturday, the Hurricanes go on the road to face Florida State in what’s probably the best chance left for someone to actually beat Miami.
Following that game, not a single team left on the team’s schedule is currently ranked. The team’s already played its toughest game of the year, a Week 1 win over Notre Dame. Carson Beck just needs to keep playing well and the Hurricanes will keep winning football games.
2. Oregon
Last Week: Fifth
I’ve never been closer to moving Ohio State out of the top spot. Oregon’s double-overtime win over Penn State probably ranks as the best win by any team this season, and the Ducks have a very, very strong case for the No. 1 seed. The Ducks are off this week, but on Oct. 11 will host Indiana.
Win that game, and it’s smooth sailing to the Big Ten title game, as the team’s final six opponents are currently unranked.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
Like I said in the Oregon blurb, I considered moving Ohio State down, but it’s hard to drop the No. 1 team in the country when they’re coming off a 24-6 conference win.
The gap between Ohio State and Oregon has closed, though, and because the two sides don’t play in the regular season, it looks like they’re likely on a collision course for the Big Ten title game.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Penn State
- No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Alabama
- No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Georgia
- No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Texas A&M
