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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 10 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 10 College Football Playoff Projections
Another week of college football is behind us, and there have been a few more shake-ups in the College Football Playoff projections. I’ll get to the Group of Five one in a moment, but first, let’s talk about Oklahoma.
The Sooners are (probably) out. ESPN gives the Sooners a 19 percent chance to make it in at the moment after its loss to Ole Miss. 6-2 Oklahoma still has to play three more ranked teams in a row, including a road game against Alabama, and the path to the playoff is basically “win out.” That 23-6 loss to Texas stands out as one of the biggest playoff-shifting losses by any team.
So, who is in the playoff field? Let’s take a look.
12. Memphis
Last Week: Not Ranked
This was South Florida’s spot to lose…and the Bulls lost it.
Memphis lost a shocker back on Oct. 18 to UAB, ending the team’s shot at an undefeated season, but a 34-31 win over South Florida this week puts the team in the driver’s seat in the American.
However, we have a huge game on Saturday between Navy and North Texas. The Midshipmen are undefeated, and a win over a 7-1 Mean Green team would provide proof that the team is for real. That could lead to another change to the No. 12 seed next week.
11. Vanderbilt
Last Week: Not Ranked
Last week, it was between Oklahoma and Vanderbilt for the No. 11 seed. The Sooners lost, the Commodores won, and this playoff spot now belongs to Vandy.
The team’s 17-10 win over Missouri was its third win over a team that was ranked at the time of the game. Two of those teams — South Carolina and LSU — are no longer ranked, but the point remains that what Vanderbilt has done this season has been very impressive.
10. BYU
Last Week: 10th
The Big 12 title race is an interesting one, with five Big 12 schools currently ranked in the AP poll. BYU, though, is clearly in the lead as the only undefeated team left in the conference.
BYU moved to 8-0 with a 41-27 win over Iowa State on Saturday. Up next is the biggest test yet, a road matchup with Texas Tech. Before that, though, the Cougars have an off week to prepare for the game.
9. Miami
Last Week: Seventh
I normally hate moving a team down after a win, especially a 42-7 win, but it doesn’t seem fair at this point to have Miami ahead of an undefeated Georgia Tech team, while Ole Miss jumps after a big win.
Miami is a good football team, though, and seems very likely to run the table and beat the Yellow Jackets in the ACC title game. This week’s road game against SMU could be a spot where the team gets tripped up, but the Hurricanes are double-digit favorites for a reason.
8. Georgia Tech
Last Week: Ninth
Georgia Tech is going to be undefeated heading into the season finale against Georgia. I mean…technically, they could lose to NC State, Boston College, or Pitt, but realistically, quarterback Haynes King isn’t letting this team lose any of those games. That dude is the real deal.
As has been the case for weeks, though, Georgia Tech’s playoff chances face a real test against Georgia on Nov. 28. The Bulldogs will be favored there, and a Georgia win would have Tech in an interesting spot heading into the ACC title game against Miami. Would two-loss Georgia Tech be guaranteed a spot?
7. Oregon
Last Week: Sixth
Oregon’s playoff chances almost took a major hit this week as the offense struggled against Wisconsin. Quarterback Dante Moore was knocked from the game with a facial injury, and the team went to the fourth quarter with just 14 points.
Thankfully, the defense held Wisconsin to a single score, and Oregon escaped with an ugly 21-7 win. The team is off this week, giving Moore a chance to heal up ahead of a road meeting with a strong Iowa defense.
6. Ole Miss
Last Week: Eighth
Ole Miss cleared arguably its last hurdle on the path to the playoffs this week, knocking off Oklahoma 34-26 on the road. Now, the team has four games left, and those games are all extremely winnable: three consecutive home games against South Carolina, The Citadel, and Florida, then a road contest against Mississippi State.
As for the SEC title game, the Rebels probably won’t be there. Texas A&M and Alabama are undefeated in SEC play and don’t face each other, plus Georgia has the tiebreaker over the Rebels thanks to their head-to-head win.
That’s probably good news. Ole Miss losing in the SEC title game wouldn’t knock it out of the playoff hunt, but it might impact seeding. As it stands right now, the team can win four relatively easy games and enter as the fifth or sixth seed, with an outside shot at a bye if some teams ahead of it end up with two losses.
5. Georgia
Last Week: Fifth
Ranking Georgia fifth might be the easiest thing ever. There are three undefeated SEC/Big Ten teams ahead of the Bulldogs, and there’s a one-loss team that has a head-to-head win over Georgia. They come in ahead of Ole Miss because they beat Ole Miss.
The Bulldogs were off this week. The next four games are relatively easy (with the possible exception of Texas), though the final regular-season game could be an issue as the team faces a currently undefeated Georgia Tech squad.
4. Alabama
Last Week: Fourth
Alabama ranks the highest of teams with a loss. After dropping the season opener to Florida State, the team has won seven in a row, though it played relatively close with South Carolina this week.
The Crimson Tide have played their toughest regular-season games already. The only ranked team remaining on the schedule is Oklahoma on Nov. 15, putting Alabama in good shape to win out and earn a spot in the SEC title game.
3. Texas A&M
Last Week: Third
The Aggies defeated LSU 49-25 this week to move to 8-0. LSU fired its coach after the game, so…that probably says a lot about how A&M dominated the contest.
A&M is off this week before it faces Missouri on the road on Nov. 8. Both ranked games left on the schedule are on the road, but A&M should still be favored in both games.
2. Indiana
Last Week: Second
Indiana destroyed UCLA on Saturday, taking down the Bruins 56-6. Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman frontrunner, and the Hoosiers have no ranked teams left to face until the Big Ten title game. Life is good for the Hoosiers.
Really, the question right now is if Indiana deserves to be No. 1. The team has wins over Oregon and Illinois on its resume, and just one game this season was decided by one score, a 20-15 win over Iowa.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
The Buckeyes remain No. 1, just as they have all season since their season-opening win over Texas propelled the defending champions to the top of the AP poll.
The Buckeyes have allowed double-digit points just once all season. This week, they play what was supposed to be their toughest game of the year against Penn State. That was before the 3-4 Nittany Lions fired their head coach. Penn State enters this game on a four-game losing streak.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Vanderbilt at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Oregon
- No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech
