RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Today, Rory McIlroy put on an absolute clinic, shooting a bogey-free 6-under 66 and climbing up the leaderboard into a tie for third heading into the weekend. Justin Rose avoided any major mistakes and remained at the top of the leaderboard at 8-under after carding a 1-under 71 in Round 2. He is followed closely by Bryson DeChambeau, who put together another solid round, finishing with a 4-under 68. The leaderboard remains tight at the top, with Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Matt McCarty, Shane Lowry, and Scottie Scheffler all tied for fifth, trailing Rose by three strokes. This weekend should deliver plenty of drama and excitement as some golfers will need to get aggressive and others just avoid mistakes to put themselves in a position for a shot at the coveted green jacket.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The wind conditions today were slightly calmer than originally predicted in the forecast, resulting in the course playing nearly a full stroke easier than in Round 1. The forecast for Round 3 tomorrow suggests relatively calm conditions, especially compared to the late afternoon winds we saw today. This may give the groups starting in the mid-morning a slight advantage.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Bryson DeChambeau has put together two solid rounds by minimizing mistakes off the tee and rolling it well with the flat stick. In Round 1, he wasn't exceptional in any specific statistical categories, but he was consistent across the board. In Round 2, he was excellent around the greens, gaining 3.23 strokes around the green and 1.77 strokes putting. DeChambeau gained 1.37 strokes on approach in Round 1, but lost 0.87 strokes on approach in Round 2, and we know Bryson's ability when it comes to his approach game. If he can execute on approach just marginally better than he did today, he will have plenty of birdie opportunities.
In his second round, Bryson DeChambeau made adjustments and reaped the benefits with a four-under-par 68. #themasters
https://t.co/hvki8Go5MU— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 12, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele has been one of the better players on tour this season with the flat stick; BUUUUUT he lost 0.89 strokes putting in Round 1 and 0.56 strokes putting in Round 2, yet he still managed to shoot a 3-under 69. The biggest contributor was his EXCELLENT approach play, which we have come to expect from Xander. He gained 0.51 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 3.86 strokes on approach in Round 2. If he continues to execute his approach shots as effectively as he did today, we could see him dropping more of the birdie putts he's missed in the first two rounds.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Viktor Hovland was solid on approach during Round 1, gaining 1.50 strokes. He followed that up in Round 2 by gaining 3.04 strokes on approach. In addition to his approach play being dialed in, Hovland has been great on the greens in both rounds, gaining 2.01 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.95 strokes putting in Round 2. Hovland dropped 11 birdies in the first two rounds, and I don't see him slowing down tomorrow.
Other Options: Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Akshay Bhatia
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Jason Day has made only one bogey over the first two rounds, with his only blemish coming today on the 18th hole. He has been solid on approach in both rounds, gaining 1.87 strokes in Round 1 and 1.12 strokes in Round 2. Although he lost 0.35 strokes putting in Round 1, he rebounded well in Round 2, gaining 1.37 strokes putting. Today, Day lost 0.82 strokes off the tee, but with calmer conditions expected tomorrow, he should have every opportunity to put himself in better positions off the tee, allowing him to be more aggressive on approach and create birdie opportunities.
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Patrick Reed, Tyrell Hatton, Sahith Theegala, Michael Kim
The Green Jacket requires patience, persistence and skill. Over the next two days, one person will display all three. #themasters pic.twitter.com/3EUdN0C0sz
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 12, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Davis Riley has played consistent golf throughout the first two rounds, but his approach play has been OUTSTANDING in both rounds. In Round 1, he gained 2.16 strokes on approach and 1.46 strokes on approach in Round 2. On top of that, he's shown he can get it done on the greens, gaining strokes putting in both rounds: 0.08 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.61 strokes putting in Round 2. Although he lost strokes off the tee in both rounds, I’m taking my chances on a player whose approach game is dialed in, proven he has the flat stick working, and has dropped nine birdies across both rounds—especially at this salary range.
Other Options: Tom Hoge, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Brian Campbell
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Nico Echavarria is one of the top putters on tour this season, and he's shown he can get the job done both on the greens and around the greens. In Round 1, he gained 0.57 strokes around the greens and followed that up by gaining 0.16 strokes around the green in Round 2. He put himself in terrible positions off the tee in Round 1, losing 1.51 strokes off the tee, and his ability to execute approach shots suffered, losing 0.36 strokes on approach. Round 2 was a different story as he gained 0.38 strokes off the tee and gained 0.66 strokes on approach. TO TOP IT ALL OFF, he found a way to drop seven birdies in the first two rounds, and the ability to find birdie opportunities despite the volatility in his game over the first two rounds is exactly the type of guy we want to target in this section of the article.
The Tournament storyboard entering the weekend. #themasters pic.twitter.com/vvau4L8IjM
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 11, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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