X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Rolling xwOBA Risers/Fallers - Statcast Hitter Analysis (Week 20)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 20 of the 2019 MLB season, sorted by xwOBA. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

Statcast just keeps getting better. Rather than having to manually run searches with advanced filtering, a new feature has been added to display a rolling xwOBA leaderboard for both pitchers and hitters.

In this series, we'll naturally focus on the hitters to see who is rising and falling over their past 50 plate appearances. We last looked at xwOBA almost two months ago in our Week 12 edition, so it's long overdue that we revisit this important metric.

As a reminder, I will examine hitters that have shown either surprising results, questionable fantasy value, or are not outright obvious studs like Nelson Cruz.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

xwOBA Risers

All stats current as of August 12, 2019 and show changes from the past 50 PA compared to the previous 50 PA.

 

Giovanny Urshela (3B, NYY)

+.269 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Anduwho? The season-ending injury to Miguel Andujar might have been a blessing in disguise because Gio Urshela is having arguably a better season than his predecessor. Urshela is batting .323 with 17 HR, 61 RBI and expected stats that are among the league leaders across the board. His .312 xBA is in the 97th percentile, his .534 xSLG is 93rd percentile, and .381 xwOBA is 91st percentile. Since August began, he's posted four multi-hit games and two multi-homer games. One of them wasn't even against the Orioles!

Urshela is a top-100 fantasy player on the season yet he's owned in only two-thirds of fantasy leagues. I know some owners have tuned out of the second half because they're out of the race in their league but don't be that guy if he's somehow available in yours.

 

Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET)

+.168 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Too little, too late? Miggy has just eight HR this season, his walk rate is down to league average at 8.4%, and his terrible surrounding cast has resulted in just 46 RBI despite a solid average. Cabrera is still hitting the ball hard but the counting stats just aren't there. He's batting .404 with runners in scoring position but that's only occurred 89 times all year. By comparison, Rafael Devers (see below) has 28 more at-bats in the same situation. It's the end of an era, as Cabrera just isn't fantasy relevant anymore.

 

Willy Adames (2B/SS, TB)

+.162 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Adames has been well below average in all Statcast measures this year other than Sprint Speed. In this case, not much has changed. His .312 xwOBA is still disappointing and it hasn't gotten much higher at .416 over the past 50 PA. The reason he is one of the biggest climbers is due to how putrid he was doing in his previous 50 PA (.254). Since the All-Star break, Adames is slashing .244/.313/.478. He has shown some pop with five HR in the last 90 AB and has improved his plate discipline but the second-year breakout some experts such as myself predicted just isn't happening. He's just 23 though, so don't give up on him altogether.

 

Brian Anderson (3B/OF, MIA)

+.153 50 PA rolling xwOBA

He's lightly owned, barely mentioned, and underwhelming in roto leagues but Anderson has been playable in points leagues based on his ability to crank out 28 doubles along with 20 long balls. He's kept his strikeout rate right around 20% and is picking things up in August in all areas, including a .325 average over the last 40 AB. He could be doing better, as his hard-hit rate ranks in the 87th percentile. With an all-fields approach, Anderson could see his average keep climbing down the stretch.

 

xwOBA Fallers

All stats current as of August 12, 2019 and show changes from the past 50 PA compared to the previous 50 PA.

 

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS)

-.181 50 PA rolling xwOBA

What goes up must come down. Devers was off to a rather slow start in the power department but then exploded from May through July with 21 HR and 76 RBI. His batting average was even better, as he was leading the majors in base hits at one point. August has been... unkind. In his last 47 at-bats, Devers is hitting .191 and has just one walk, resulting in a .208 OBP. His season-long xStats are through the roof but he could be hitting a wall or facing a long overdue slump. Normally a player of his talent in such a potent lineup would be an automatic start in fantasy leagues, no matter how bad the slump. As the third-worst xwOBA faller on the leaderboard, you may want to give him a little breather though.

 

Mitch Garver (C, MIN)

-.165 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Garver was just highlighted in my Mideseason xSLG Overachievers piece, so it would be pretentious of me to sweep aside this recent fall from grace. Garver has been great all year, especially for a catcher, but he was bound to slow down at some point. Although his 48.4% hard-hit rate rank in the 94th percentile, his .231 xBA is down in the 16th percentile. He's been in a miserable slump since August began, as it appears he's getting pull-happy trying to leave the yard. With Jason Castro there to share time behind the plate (also slumping in August), Garver is losing value in single-catcher leagues. Maybe try Jonathan Lucroy or Francisco Mejia instead.

 

Paul DeJong (2B/SS, STL)

-.125 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Just as Goldy heats up, DeJong slows down. DeJong had been hitting well but he's getting back to doing what he tends to do - swing and miss.

DeJong's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom quarter percentile so it's almost a wonder how he's been able to match last year's power numbers. By now, we can figure out what he is - a .250 hitter with 20 HR power that will hurt you wherever strikeouts matter. He can play as a MI in 12+ team leagues but when he has swoons like this with a .244 xwOBA over his last 50 appearances, he can be benched.

 

Max Kepler (OF, MIN)

-.120 50 PA rolling xwOBA

Another Twin who had been experiencing a breakout season and is also slowing down. Kepler's .318 xwOBA over the past 50 PA is a definite drop but it may not be a major concern just yet. His 100 PA rolling xwOBA is still positive at +.113 and his plate discipline isn't much different. He's picked up a hit in five of the last six contests and hasn't gone more than three games without a homer since mid-July. Kepler may be on a downswing temporarily but still has the potential to break out with a monster game at any time, so bench him at your own risk.

 

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Stefon Diggs

Likely to Begin Camp Working on the Side
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Xavier Legette

Should be More Productive
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Cole Bishop

has Good Shot to Win a Starting Job
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Nate Wiggins

Ravens Think Nate Wiggins has Star Potential
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Quinshon Judkins

More Details Emerge on Quinshon Judkins' Arrest
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kaden Elliss

Could be Atlanta's Most Impactful Pass-Rusher
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Darius Robinson

Ready to Make his Mark in 2025?
Jauan Jennings

Expected to Report for Training Camp
Trey Smith

the Only Player Still on the Franchise Tag
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Jauan Jennings

Seeking New Deal or Trade From 49ers
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF