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Top recommended prop bets, picks, and betting advice for Super Bowl LIV. Seth Finkelstein gives an in-depth fantasy football preview for the big game.
The biggest game of the football season is upon us, but it's a melancholy game. We all are excited to watch and find out who wins, but as each second passes, the closer we are to not watching a meaningful football game for seven months. That's why you need to make the most of this game. Most people do that by gathering with friends for Super Bowl parties. However, most of those people don't know anything about football. They cheer for meaningless plays and don't understand the basic concept of 1st-and-10. In fact, for some people, the Super Bowl is the only NFL game they'll watch all season. For us hardcore fans, at least Vegas gives us many wild and crazy prop bets to follow so that we can focus on something meaningful.
In this column, I will be breaking down the big game including several prop bets, whether it's a player prop or game prop. These props were found in VSIN's 78-page prop bet compilation, as well as DraftKings and FanDuels sportsbook My best advice would be to handicap the game as to what you think will happen and bet accordingly. If you expect a shootout, then go over on pass attempts and completions. If you expect a ball-control, low-scoring game, then go under rushing yards, etc. I'd highly advise not betting the coin toss. That's because you have to bet $102 to win $100 on a 50/50 chance. You're better off betting that with a friend and this way don't have to pay the extra juice.
I can't stress enough to shop around for the best value. If you're in Nevada, you have a robust amount of sportsbooks to choose from. If you're in New Jersey, DraftKings and FanDuel are both options. If you're unfamiliar with gambling, -110 means you have to lay $110 to win $100. If the line is +110, that means you bet $100 to win $110. Now, let's get to the final game of the NFL season and pick some props that will hit.
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Super Bowl Picks - Player/Game Props
Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 (-155) - Circa
This is heavy vig, but it's worth it to lay the extra money. This prop hit in all four divisional-round games as well as both championship games. With referees reviewing every scoring play, how often is the runner down just before the goal line which then sets up the 1-yard touchdown?
First pass attempt of Patrick Mahomes incomplete (+180), Jimmy Garoppolo (+165) incomplete - DraftKings
Last year, both Tom Brady and Jared Goff threw an incompletion on their first attempt. How will that impact this game? There is absolutely no correlation but if you bet both and one of them throws an incomplete pass on that first pass, you win, because you're getting plus money on both.
Matt Breida OVER 15.5 rushing yards (-110) - South Point
Raheem Mostert is all the talk of Niner fandom after his 220-yard, four-touchdown performance in the NFC Championship game. But Breida has been consistent all season, going over 15.5 yards in all but two games. One of those games was the NFC Championship. Even if Mostert gets the bulk of the carries, the 49ers' motto lately has been to run, run, run. Why stop that against the Chiefs when the recipe to beat them is controlling the clock by running the ball? Add in a run defense that was sixth-worst in the league and this seems like an obvious bet. The other 49ers running back is Tevin Coleman but he's been dealing with a separated shoulder. All you need is Breida to break one or two runs for a decent-sized gain and you'll cash this ticket.
Matt Breida OVER 3.5 rushing attempts (-110) - South Point
The only game in which he didn't have 3.5 rushing attempts was the NFC Championship.
Three unanswered scores by either team? YES (-170) - Circa
So you may think this prop should be plus-money, but it hits more often than not. That's why Vegas has heavy juice on the "yes" on this.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 29.5 rushing yards (-110) - William Hill
Mahomes's highest rushing games have been 59, 54, 54, 53, 25, 21 and so forth. So only in four of 16 games (including the playoffs) has Mahomes gone over 29.5. I'm nervous about Mahomes escaping the pocket on a four-man rush and beating this prop on one play, but that's gambling.
First quarter under 10 total points (+105) - Circa
First half under 27 total points (-120) - William Hill
I'll put these two unders together. It takes teams a little while to get out the jitters of playing in front of the world. I also expect the 49ers to come out and try and slow the game down with a ton of runs and long drives. The 49ers Defense allowed the fewest number of passing plays of more than 20 yards and second-fewest plays of more than 40 yards this season.
Cross-Sports Props
Miami (FL) points +15.5 vs. Raheem Mostert rushing yards (-110) - Superbook
The Hurricanes average 72 points per game. They play in Pittsburgh Sunday and the Panthers allow an average of 63 points a game. Say Miami scores 67, Mostert would need 83 rushing yards or more to lose the prop. He's hit that number three times this year: Week 2, Week 13, and the NFC Championship game. I think everyone is making way too big a deal about the game against the Packers. Their defense was suspect all season and they were finally exposed. Kyle Shanahan rode the hot hand, which was Mostert, but that could very well be Breida this game.
George Kittle receiving yards +3.5 vs. St. John's points (-110) - Superbook
St. John's averages 75 points per game while their opponent Sunday allows, Georgetown, allows 73. However, St. John's played Villanova Tuesday night and they couldn't finish a layup or hit wide open threes. It was a really poor shooting performance. Kittle's receiving yard total is set at 70.5. So even if St. John's gets to 70 points, you're getting 3.5 yards. Kittle is the 49ers' engine and I expect the Niners to get him going early.
Super Bowl Score Prediction
These teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game so they'll know each other's tendencies. The 49ers are the better overall team but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. As I mentioned above, the recipe to beat Kansas City is to sustain long drives, chew the clock, and run the ball. It's also being able to get pressure on Mahomes without blitzing, something the Niners can do very well. When you have a defense like the Niners, it's really hard to not go with them in the Super Bowl. Top defenses usually win. Think Broncos against Panthers in 2016, Seahawks against Broncos in 2014, and Ravens against Giants in 2000. It really does feel like Andy Reid will finally get his Super Bowl but you can't bet with emotion.
49ers 27 - Chiefs 24
Thanks for reading my columns all year. I'll be back writing my NFL Survivor Picks series in the fall!
