September 29, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler takes a look at five players sending out warning signals that you should be concerned about heading into week 4 of the fantasy football season.

Do my eyes deceive me or did we manage to get through week three without another massive boatload of injuries? There were some unfortunate hiccups for sure, most notably that of Jeremy Langford and Thomas Rawls, but overall it looks like players are starting to remain on the field more than they did the first two weeks. As it pertains to Warning Signals, that at least gives us the ability to look at players through a more healthy lens going forward.

As always, the purpose of this piece is to analyze players who are struggling in 2016 in an effort to determine their outlook for the rest of the season. Players dealing with lingering injuries like Russell Wilson are still exempt from this list since it's obvious that their play is limited due to not being 100%. Luckily, this week is a rather tame list considering the players who had strong performances in week three.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Heed the Warning Signs

Once again, the rule of thumb for a player appearing in Warning Signals is that they can't be added to the list more than three times. Occasionally a player will get a pass if there are additional circumstances surrounding his performance. An injury, suspension, or trade, for example, would open him back up to additional analysis. Beyond that, players are what they are after a certain point so it's best to keep the names fresh.

Blake Bortles - (QB, JAX)

Call me crazy but I was never truly on board with Blake Bortles as a fantasy star heading into 2016. At first glance, his numbers on the year don't look all that terrible. Five total touchdowns with two 300+ yard games don't scream "panic," it's when you take a closer look at what he's doing on the field that makes you worry. One of the knocks on Bortles was that he threw a ton of interceptions which, in turn, inadvertently inflated his fantasy numbers since he improved in garbage time. Well guess what? He already has six interceptions on the year. And even though those five TD's and respectable yardage totals in two games seem fine, he's just the 21st highest scoring fantasy QB.

I think this is the Blake Bortles we should start getting accustomed to going forward. He's going to have some nice games where he puts up okay fantasy numbers but he's also going to hurt you with his interceptions. More importantly than that, the "step forward" many expected him to take isn't coming in 2016. He shouldn't be treated as a fantasy starter, especially with passers like Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, and even Dak Prescott having better years than him so far. Hopefully you were wise enough to grab a backup just in case Bortles didn't progress. I wouldn't drop him outright as he could still be a decent bye week fill-in given the right matchup but I can't imagine continuing to start him.

Julian Edelman - (WR, NE)

To put things bluntly (Patriots pun not intended), Julian Edelman's are not very good through three games. Granted, they're a hell of a lot better in PPR than they are in standard scoring but he's yet to find the endzone and hasn't hit 100 yards yet this season. But then again, remember who's throwing to him; it ain't Teflon Tom Brady.

Fortunately, there's only one more week remaining in Brady's suspension so I'm not concerned about Edelman's season long outlook. You're just going to have to weather the storm for one more game with whoever is under center for the Pats in week four. I'm keeping this one short because the message here should be obvious: don't worry about Julian Edelman. He's going to be fine.

Randall Cobb - (WR, GB)

You know who I'm legitimately concerned is not going to be fine? Randall Cobb. Even in a game where the Packer offense was on fire and showed us why we all believed they'd right the ship with the return of Jordy Nelson, Cobb only managed to haul in one reception for 33 yards. You would think that when Rodgers is slinging the ball around for four touchdowns Cobb would make the box score for one of them. Instead, he only had just three targets on the day.

The panic-o-meter on Cobb is nearing critical levels as Green Bay enters their bye week. If I can get anywhere close to draft day value for Cobb, I'd sell him in a heartbeat. In fact, I own him in a couple leagues and that's going to my plan for the next two weeks. It's looking like this offense is all Jordy Nelson at the top and a whole bunch of filler everywhere else with Rodgers spreading the ball around a ton. We'll revisit Cobb after Green Bay's bye but I'm not exactly holding my breath.

Jeremy Maclin - (WR, KC)

Amazingly, this week's warning signals list ended up being completely running back-free. A lot of that has to do with injuries but there are also just too many wide receivers who are inducing some serious head scratching. Jeremy Maclin falls into the latter category although I'm not as concerned as some others might be. The main reason why I'm not too worried about Maclin is the sheer amount of targets he's been getting through three games. Maclin has 29 targets on the year which ties him for 11th among wide receivers. That's more than Jordy Nelson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brandon Marshall.

The other huge bonus Maclin has going for him is that his next five matchups look absolutely delicious. Kansas City's next five games are against the Steelers, Raiders, Saints, Colts, and Jaguars. None of those defenses scare you and if anything they should all yield great performances out of the Chiefs offense. If Randall Cobb is a prime sell candidate, Jeremy Maclin is the exact opposite as a buy-low target.

Jordan Reed - (TE, WAS)

Jordan Reed is our third tight end to appear on warning signals yet he's also the one I'm concerned about the least. Reed has always been somewhat of a streaky player so I'm not all that panicked about his mediocre showings thus far. Not finding the endzone through three games can be a bit of a pain but this is a player who can win you multiple weeks by hauling in touchdowns in bunches. Throw in a Redskins offense that is once again slow to start the year and Jordan Reed isn't someone I'm fearful of going forward.

If anything, now would be the time to use Jordan Reed in a daily format with the Cleveland Browns on deck in week four. The breakouts are coming, it just so happens that this is a team that doesn't start out hot. Reed is a case where I'm more frustrated than I am worried.

Updates From Last Week

Todd Gurley - (RB, LA)

I don't mean to toot my own here, but toot-toot I will. Admittedly, this is going to be an up and down year for Todd Gurley but I was confident he'd be able to get on track against the Buccaneers and that he did. 85 yards with two touchdowns will put you at ease at least temporarily. The top five overall numbers aren't going to be there this year but he should still be viewed as an RB1 even if he isn't as dominant as we all hoped.

Eddie Lacy - (RB, GB)

Thinking back to what I wrote about Eddie Lacy last week, I think I was a bit too aggressive in dismissing him as a bounce back candidate. He had a nice game against the Lions on Sunday, running for 103 yards in a Green Bay win. Look, I still stand firm in thinking that the massive return to prominence isn't coming to fruition but if I'm willing to accept Gurley as an RB1 with his newfound inconsistency, I should have been more forgiving on Eddie Lacy as well. The running back position is just too much of a wasteland to write Lacy off so soon. If it sounds like I'm backtracking, that's because I kind of am. We'll revisit Lacy's season long outlook in a few weeks once the Packers return from their bye week to face the Giants.

Coby Fleener - (TE, NO)

Coby Fleener ended up being the biggest beneficiary of Willie Snead's absence on Monday night, totaling 109 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps the most glaring number in his stat line was the fact that he got 11 targets as well. With Snead out, Fleener was able to increase is target share and put up some much needed fantasy numbers. I'm curious to see what this offense can do with both guys on the field so it feels like Fleener is in a holding pattern for now. Unless there are better options available to you in your league (Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph), you're going to have to hope for the best that Fleener can produce with the Saints number two receiver at full strength.

Gary Barnidge - (TE, CLE)

I understand that Gary Barnidge is trending in the right direction and actually had his most productive game of the season against the Dolphins but I'm still a lot closer to panic than any other player we're revisiting here. If I'm benching but not dropping Fleener in favor of Pitta and Rudolph, I'm most certainly washing my hands of Barnidge altogether if I can find someone better. I just don't think the Cleveland offense is going to utilize the tight end the way they did last year without Josh McCown behind center. Barnidge was a great story in 2015, yet it appears we might be looking at another Browns one-hit wonder.