NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids

November 4, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

Football. The game doesn't add up. Sometimes all stats point to one team dominating but just the opposite happens. That transpired with  the Bengals Sunday, but the game that really made no sense was the Titans-Colts. Indy jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead before the Titans crawled back and then it was back-and-forth. Now when you look at the stats, you'd think Derrick Henry got them back in the game, but it was just the opposite. Henry had 68 rushing yards on 28 carries. Ryan Tannehill only threw for 265 yards. The turnover battle was dead even until Carson Wentz threw the pick in overtime. It didn't seem possible the Titans could come back without a running game, but they did. Go figure.

Finally an underdog won. The Jets came back from 11 down with five to go to stun the Bengals. It was the first time all season a favorite of more than seven points lost outright. It devastated survivor pools. In my pool, it knocked out about half of remaining entrants. Including one of mine. I know, I said I was doubling up on Kansas City, but I didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket.  And if I did, I may have a had a heart attack watching them almost lost to the Giants. But how could the Bengals lose to Mike White and  theJets, especially when they were up by two scores in the waning minutes? Football. The sport we all love the most is the one that makes the least sense.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 9

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Bills -14.5 at Jaguars, Colts -10.5 vs. Jets, Cowboys -10 vs. Broncos Dolphins -6.5 vs. Texans, and Rams -7.5 vs. Titans.

Teams on bye this week; Bucs, Lions, Seahawks, Washington

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 9

Bills -14.5 at Jaguars

This is the top play of the week. The question is are there other options so you can save Buffalo for later in the year. Check this schedule; at Jets Week 10, vs. Colts Week 11, vs. Panthers Week 15, vs. Falcons Week 17, and vs. Jets Week 18. Buffalo is the most reliable team in football. They don't take any team for granted and they keep their foot on the gas the entire game. This is my pick this week. I just want to advance.

Bills 41 - Jaguars 13

Rams -7.5 vs. Titans

The Rams are another logical platy Sunday night against the Titans who will be without Derrick Henry. The next-best option to take LA is Week 13 against the Jaguars. I'm holding the Rams till then.

Rams 34 - Titans 20

Cowboys -10 vs. Broncos

This game is very simple if Dak Prescott plays. Dallas averages 32.1 points per game, third best in the league, while Denver ranks 23rd averaging 19.6.

Cowboys 41 - Broncos 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Colts -10.5 vs. Jets

Indy seems to be a very wise choice this week. They host the Jets Thursday night. They should win, but can you really trust Carson Wentz? The guy panics, can't handle the pressure, and throws the ball left-handed for an easy Titans pick-six? He then forces a throw in overtime which is intercepted and the Titans go on to win. Inexcusable.

Colts 23 - Jets 20

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Texans

Miami may seem like a logical choice because they're hosting the Texans but I can't put my faith in Tua Tagovailoa. He's averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, far below the league average, The offense is 31st in yards per play, worse than Houston. They average 17 points per game, 28th, while Texans are averaging 14.9, last. And Miami's defense is 26th in yards per play. These teams are very even statistically. And Vegas is begging you to tease Miami down to pick so all they need to do is win. Beware.

Houston 19 - Dolphins 17

Raiders at Giants (no line posted as of Wednesday morning)

I originally had the Raiders as a team to play as they are a road favorite off a bye, and they're playing a team on a short week. But Las Vegas has had so many distractions. They lost their head coach due to his emails, now their young budding star wide receiver, Henry Ruggs III who's since been released, is facing a fatal DUI charge. How much more can this team take?

I do like how the Raiders are a complete team; 7th in yards per play, 4th in opponent yards per play, and eighth in turnover margin. They should handle but I worry about the distractions here.

Raiders 23 - Giants 22

Chiefs -8 vs. Packers

This line was Chiefs by one before Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID. This is too high though. Did we all just not watch Kansas City almost lose to the Giants? Their offense looks lost and defense was never good.

Chiefs 24 - Packers 23

Best Bets

• Patriots -4 at Panthers - New England's defense should dominate the injured Sam Darnold.
• Vikings +5.5 at Ravens - Just when you count out Minnesota and you think they're done, their offense rebounds and keeps the game close.
• Packers +8 at Chiefs - Like I said above, Kansas City should not be a touchdown favorite over this Packers team even without Aaron Rodgers.

Running Totals

• Last week: 0-3
• 2021 season total: 9-14-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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