RADIO
There are a bunch of teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back, so while there have already been a few announcements for players resting, like Kemba Walker, make sure you are noting all the rotation changes before you throw away money. With just eight games, we have options, but with five of these teams playing the second game in two nights, there are increased odds for variables to impact the game.
The Nets, Kings, Warriors, Hornets, and Knicks all fall under that category, but only Golden State were able to keep their starters playing under 30 minutes. Against Atlanta, there shouldn't be much resistance on defense, unless Clint Capela dominates this game start to finish, the Warriors will have no problem competing.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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NYK @ PHI
Joel Embiid (PHI) LESS 25.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 10.5 Rebounds
Tobias Harris' availability is uncertain and that doesn't bode well for the 76ers, who already lost to the Knicks once this season. Joel Embiid was not able to beat the defense of Mitchell Robinson and it wasn't a challenge. Embiid failed to get shots up, failed to generate any momentum when he finally had the ball in his hands, and failed to provide support as a secondary playmaker. The Knicks played yesterday and let up 37 points to Ricky Rubio, but it's very unlikely they abandon what's working in the frontcourt to stop the bleeding in the backcourt. Especially when that backcourt is only facing Seth Curry and Tyrese Maxey.
This is the first back-to-back of the season for the Knicks, and that's not enough of a factor to assume they will get beat Monday night. Julius Randle has much more options at his disposal on offense this year, and it's allowed him to play more to his own style and speed, compared to forcing it consistently. Since Philadelphia is arguably, throwing out a dilapidated team each night, especially knowing a roster spot is being wasted by Ben Simmons, someone has to clean up on the extra stats. Since Embiid and Robinson will be occupied with eachother, this can be a monster game for all Knicks rebounders.
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MIN @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 24.5 Points - Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) MORE 24.5 Points
Defense will be played this game, to be sure, but it just might not be good defense. Where both of these players thrive, the other struggles. Steven Adams holds his own in the paint, but he's not the most versatile defender and that matters when it comes to guarding Karl-Anthony Towns at all three-levels. Towns needs to convert, and his production in the Timberwolves last four games, all being losses, isn't a great indicator of what is to come. He can put up 20 points with ease on most given nights, so when the defense isn't locked onto him from the start, he still puts up massive stat lines.
The case is similar for Ja Morant, except he has the luxury of lining up against D'Angelo Russel. Who is not yet at 100%, but is playing and going to sacrifice a ton of points on the defensive end. Since Morant fills the stat sheet when he isn't able to score, there's reason to attack his Fantasy Point projected line as well. Since the Grizzlies are still the Grizzlies, Morant doesn't have much choice but to try and score and they are subject to keep slipping and losing games if the rest of the team doesn't provide support. Luckily, we can bank on that not happening and Morant having another big game.
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NOP @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 26.5 Points - Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) MORE 17.5 Rebounds
If you aren't aware, or the rock you are hiding under is too heavy, the Dallas Mavericks have fallen off a cliff. Whether it was on purpose or not doesn't matter, but they are absolutely, one of the worst teams in the league currently. They have one of the best scorers in the game, but the lack of support Luka Doncic is getting from the rest of the roster, combined with the defensive effort the collective is providing, it's amazing the Mavericks have done this well. Doncic has seemingly found some scoring efficiency lately, so there's no reason to assume he will have a bad game when a 27-point projected isn't all that difficult for him, especially playing against the one team that might be in a worse situation than Dallas. Some might scoff, but even as someone who isn't a Doncic fan-boy, it's hard to see him not continuing his impressive play.
You could replace Luka Doncic and the Mavericks with Jonas Valanciunas and the Pelicans, and not only still give off a tasty European jazz band vibe, but the first paragraph would still ring true in terms of the actual players and not my cruddy jokes. Once Brandon Ingram went down, Valanciunas had no choice but to dwell in the usage that the Pelicans guards would throw at him. It's worked so far and there have been few players putting up similar stats, especially players in this type of helpless situation. It's about time New Orleans had the chance to face a worthy opponent and with just Kristaps Porzingis or Dwight Powell manning the paint, Valanciunas is going to eat.
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PHX @ SAC
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 27.5 Points - De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 19.5 Points
It's not fair to say that Devin Booker is responsible for the Suns latest win streak, but it's arguably more ridiculous to say his scoring isn't the key facet in Phoenix' success. There's only been one, of his previous four games, Booker didn't score above 20 points and it came in a 12-point victory over the Pelicans. It's fair to say that if he was going to have a bad game against anyone, it comes against the team that even Jae Crowder could score on. The Kings defense isn't bad, but there isn't a defensive scheme capable of slowing down player like Booker when he is rolling.
Since Booker scored 31 points in the first meeting between the two, and De'Aaron Fox had an incredibly inefficient 18 point, nine-assist game, it's obvious both of these players are going to get shots up Monday night. Fox has more of a climb because of how well Booker has played, and how well the Suns have found a way to keep him producing, but even in a down season for the Kings point guard still has him averaging nearly 15 points a game along with numerous hustle stats. Since both of these players have shown the ability to distribute the ball AND get rebounds, the fantasy point bet here is just a good as the points bet.
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