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Editor's Note: for a little extra something today, check out some more of RotoBaller's DFS lineup picks and value plays for today's MLB games, featured right on FanDuel's insider blog courtesy of our very own Real Talk Raph.
Daily Fantasy Leagues - FanDuel Lineup Picks (5/16)
Please check the posted lineups and weather forecasts for each game before finalizing your lineup.
SP: Lance Lynn vs. ATL (vs. Ervin Santana) - $7800
Let me start off by saying Jose Quintana is probably the better pick based solely on points and salary. However, I imagine he’ll be the highest selected SP for tonight’s matchups. He’s a great pick against a terrible offensive team. Lynn has to face a tougher opposing pitcher, also. That being said, I think Lynn is a good high-upside play, especially in bigger tournaments where you need to take a high risk-high reward approach. Over his career, Lynn has a 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 9.18 K/9 at Busch Stadium. Moreover, Lynn is much tougher on right-handed batters. The Braves will likely only have two LHH in the lineup (Freeman and Heyward). Atlanta’s offense has been atrocious against RHP this year too with a wRC+ of 73 which means they're 27% worse than MLB average. Lynn has the chance to have a fantastic start tonight, and I think he’ll actually get more points than Quintana tonight. He’ll just cost a little bit more.
C: Steve Clevenger vs. KC (Jeremy Guthrie, RHP) - $2300
Clevenger has played very well since Matt Wieters started having elbow issues, which currently have him on the DL. He’s the type of player that actually goes against my high-upside credo. However, he’s got a terrific matchup and he’s hitting in a great lineup. Clevenger has always hit for a great average with little power. He keeps his strikeouts in check, and he hits a lot of line drives and groundballs. Jeremy Guthrie has the most prominent splits among any of the starting pitchers tonight. His wOBA versus LHH is a whopping .385 since 2012. Clevenger doesn’t get the benefit of playing in his hitter friendly home ballpark, however, Clevenger doesn’t really hit homeruns anyways, so this shouldn’t affect his value much. For $2300, Clevenger deserves your consideration tonight.
2B: Jedd Gyorko vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa, LHP) - $2800
I won’t sugarcoat it. Gyorko has been abysmal this year. There are a couple of positives: he’s swinging and missing less and he’s swinging less at pitches outside of the strike zone. This generally leads to positive results. Part of Gyorko’s problem has been awful luck on the balls he does put in play (.175 BABIP). However, part of that is Gyorko’s fault. Of the balls he’s put in play, only 13.7% of them have been line drives—down from 22.5% last year.
He’s hitting fly balls at about the same rate though, which is promising for a date at Coors Field. Jorge De La Rosa struggles mightily with RHH, allowing a wOBA against of .351 since 2012. At a position where it’s tough to find homerun potential, Gyorko is a nice high-upside play at Coors Field tonight.
3B: Pedro Alvarez vs. NYY (David Phelps, RHP) - $3300
Alvarez has taken great strides as a hitter this year. He’s much more disciplined at the plate, and he’s not swinging and missing at pitches nearly as often. The one concerning number is his extremely low 11.6% line drive rate. That doesn’t concern me much for this matchup, however. This matchup is about Alvarez’s opportunity to hit a homerun or two. Moving from PNC park to the short porch in left field at Yankee Stadium is a dream for Alvarez owners. He’s also facing a back of the rotation right-handed pitcher. Alvarez hits lots of homeruns off RHP in general. Add in the pitcher he faces, and you’ve got a really high expected point value. Moreover, his team gets to use a DH and play in a hitter friendly park, increasing his odds of getting more PA, runs, and RBI. $3300 is extremely reasonable for Alvarez tonight. He’s probably my favorite play on FanDuel.
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