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The L.A. Rams have suddenly struggled on offense midseason, especially Matthew Stafford. Justin Dunbar evaluates the team to project fantasy football value for their key WRs for the rest of the 2021 NFL season.
When the Rams traded for star edge rusher Von Miller, they made it clear that they were defining this season as a "Super Bowl or bust" season.
Their own Twitter account confirmed that by indicating they were putting their chips into the table for this season:
We're all in. pic.twitter.com/3Z0ELD11RW
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At the time, how could you blame them? They had a 7-1 record, were averaging 30.63 points per game, and were beating their opponents by an average of 15.25 points during their four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, quarterback Matthew Stafford, appeared to be the favorite to win the MVP. Since then, things have not gone as planned.
The Rams are coming off of back-to-back losses to the Titans and 49ers respectively, being outscored by 35 points in that span with just 13 points scored per game. That's not what we were expecting from them. So, what is causing these struggles, and can they be fixed? Luckily for Rams fans, it appears that this is a relatively easy solution.
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How Turnovers Impact Game Script
When analyzing the Rams' recent offensive performance, what stands out is the turnovers they have committed. Matthew Stafford has thrown four interceptions in the first half of each of the past two games, leading to the team falling behind in back-to-back games. For perspective, he had thrown four interceptions in the first eight games of the season combined.
As a result of falling behind, head coach Sean McVay has had to change his game-plan. For the year, 23.4% of the team's passes are out of play-action, where Stafford is averaging 9.9 yards/pass attempt. However, that number has dipped over the past two weeks:
- Week 9: 16.4% play action
- Week 10: 13.6% play action
As you can see, Los Angeles has been forced into more obvious passing situations, which may be hurting their receivers when it comes to getting open. Stafford's average time to throw – 2.79 seconds in Week 9 and 2.77 seconds in Week 10 – has been much higher over the past two weeks than his season average (2.59 seconds). This indicates that either he's trying to do too much, or the receivers are simply struggling to get open. Play-action passes are known to help with creating separation for receivers, and without them getting open, Stafford is forcing the ball into tight windows.
The good news? This should not continue. Turnovers are very volatile on a week-to-week basis, and you'd assume the Rams see some positive regression there. With that in mind, they shouldn't be in immediate negative game scripts, especially since they've proven themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, they are Pro Football Focus' highest-graded team this season! In less-predictable situations, Stafford's play should improve. As a result, it should benefit the rest of the team. Sometimes, it's as simple as that.
Better Luck Ahead
Turnovers aren't the only way the Rams have suffered over the past two games. When you analyze the team's success rates on early downs, they've remained a prolific offense. However, on third down, that hasn't been the case. In 25 tries, they've converted just seven of them (28%), which is a very low mark. Luckily for Rams fans, third-down production has been proven to be unstable from week-to-week, and I'd bet the offense to see better days ahead in that category.
Meanwhile, the team also had to deal with an absurdly high 18.8% drop rate against the 49ers on Monday Night Football. One of those drops – on a screen pass to tight end Tyler Higbee – led to a pick-six, which set the stage for a rough night for the Rams. Turns out, drops are another unstable metric. For the season, Rams receivers are dropping just 8.2% of the passes. which should be the expectation moving forward. Once again, expect better days ahead.
A New-Look Receiving Corps
So, problem solved, right? Not quite. Prior to the team's Week 10 game against the 49ers, marquee receiver Robert Woods suffered a torn ACL, knocking him out for the rest of the season. As the WR12 in fantasy football with 76.8 receiving yards/game over his past five games, Woods is a big loss for the offense.
At the very least, the Rams certainly lucked out signing receiver Odell Beckham Jr. two days prior. The initial expectation was that Beckham Jr. would serve as the vertical threat of the offense, replacing Van Jefferson, but he now may be asked to fill the shoes of Woods. The problem is that the two receivers are extremely different.
Woods' average depth of target this year was just 8.7 yards. Why? Well, because he's the team's top option providing yardage after the catch, which has been a staple of McVay's offense. Beckham, on the other hand, has consistently had an average depth of target in the double digits and has been a non-factor after the catch in back-to-back seasons.
Does this mean Beckham Jr. won't come in and produce as a WR2 for Los Angeles, similarly to Woods? I don't think that's the case. The 29-year-old is still an excellent athlete who likely can make more plays after the catch if given the opportunity to do so, as opposed to being simply a deep threat. Even if that's not the plan McVay had when the team signed him, it's what they may be forced to do now, and something Beckham Jr. showed the ability to do prior to 2020.
I don't think he'll match the receptions that Woods would have been projected for, but he'll provide much more per each reception. OBJ also has some extra touchdown upside based on his ability to work a vertical route tree. There might be a slight drop-off here, but not enough to be concerned about.
Conclusion
It's easy to get concerned about the Rams following their two-game skid, but all indications are they are suffering from poor luck in unstable areas: turnovers, third downs, and drops. These all have led to negative game scripts, taking away their play-action passing game and making them a predictable offense.
With better luck in future games, Los Angeles can get back to running the offense they want to, allowing the receivers to create more separation and for Stafford to make quicker, smarter decisions. Considering that, feel confident continuing to start Stafford on a weekly basis, as is the case with running back Darrell Henderson and receiver Cooper Kupp. As for Beckham Jr., I'd view him as a low-end boom-or-bust WR2 moving forward, while Jefferson creeps into high-end WR4 territory.
Better days are definitely ahead for the Rams offense. It may require patience as you wait for them to come off of their bye week, but the result will be a better product. It will be interesting to see how Beckham Jr. is incorporated into the offense, but one thing is for certain: head coach Sean McVay should be trusted to utilize a talented playmaker. For the sake of your fantasy team, don't read much into their two-game skid.
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