X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Nats Aren't Trading Juan Soto, But Should You?

juan soto fantasy baseball rankings outfield MLB injury news

Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto is having a disappointing 2022 season for fantasy baseball. Should fantasy managers trade him, hold, or buy low?

It’s sometimes easy to forget Juan Soto is just 23 years old. It wasn’t crazy to call him the best hitter in baseball heading into 2022, and he was getting drafted in the top-three in just about every fantasy league. He also reportedly rejected a $350 million dollar offer from the Nationals and has since been a subject of trade talks.

Everyone was expecting A LOT out of Soto this season, but it’s hard to say that he has come through on those expectations thus far. He is currently ranked as the 56th overall player on Yahoo after finishing 11th in 2021.

The Nationals have been firm in that they will not trade Juan Soto, but that is real life. Should you be looking to trade Soto in fantasy? Is he due for a monster second half or have the trade talks and expectations gotten to him?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Juan Soto's Plate Discipline

When evaluating Juan Soto’s performance, the first thing we should look at is his plate discipline. His command of the strike zone and willingness to take walks has been the most impressive thing about him so far in his career, and it's what really makes him stand out above the other young superstars in the game. I’m happy to report that his plate discipline is still fantastic. He has a .376 OBP and his 18.2 BB% is in the 100th percentile in baseball. His K% of 15.3% is up from the last few years, but it's still 83rd percentile. His whiff rate and chase rates are 70th and 95th percentile, which again are down from 2021 (80th and 100th respectively), but again, these are still incredibly impressive numbers. So, if Soto’s plate discipline is not the issue, what is causing the decrease in production?

 

Breaking and Offspeed Pitches

One aspect of Soto’s game that has seen a noticeable decline has to do with his hitting breaking and offspeed pitches. The charts below show Soto’s stats against both offspeed and breaking pitches in 2022 compared to 2021, with every stat that has decreased highlighted in yellow.

As you can see, these are significant drops across the board. Soto seems to have no answer for sliders right now, as he has a .054 average against sliders in 2022.  This is obviously something that he is going to have to sort out, as teams are going to become more and more aware of this fact as his struggles continue.

It’s hard to pinpoint a real reason for this, especially with his plate discipline still so strong. He is still identifying pitches just fine, but when it comes to putting the bat on the ball with authority, he has come up short if it isn’t a fastball. Pretty much all young hitters deal with this at some point, but it seemed like Soto was already past that point of adjustment in his career. Obviously, that is not true, so this is something Soto is going to have to improve on if he wants to be the #1 hitter in fantasy baseball.

 

Juan Soto's Batted Ball Profile

The most glaring concern about Soto’s 2022 season is his .228 batting average. After hitting .313 and .351 in 2021 and 2020, his batting average is actively hurting every single Soto owner this season. But as we know, batting average has a decent amount of luck involved, so you hope that he has been making enough quality contact to believe his luck will turn.

Overall, Soto’s Statcast numbers are still very good, but there are a few drops in stats that you don’t like to see in your first-round pick. His average exit velocity is sitting at 89.3 MPH, down from 93 MPH in 2021. That may not seem like a huge drop, but when it comes to percentiles compared to the rest of the league, it is. His 93 MPH average exit velo in 2021 was good for the 94th percentile in MLB, while his 89.3 MPH of this year puts him all the way down to the 53rd percentile, right around league average. His hard-hit rate is also down, going from 52.7% in 2021 to 44.4% this season. Again, these are not horrible numbers at all, but it’s a noticeable decline and not what you want to see out of your first-round pick.

His ground ball and fly ball rates have been right in line with his career averages, so that’s good to see there aren’t any issues there. His line-drive rate is at a career-low 17.2%, and it’s clear that he’s going to need to get that up closer to his career average of 22.8% to get that batting average up.

 

What To Do With Juan Soto

So, given all this information, what should we do with Soto? Overall, while there are some noticeable declines in key statistics, Soto has maintained his stellar plate discipline and overall approach at the plate and has still produced a 136 wRC+ (100 being league average). A quick look at his Statcast numbers from 2021 vs. 2022 tells you that not too much has changed really.

When it comes to a dynasty setting, there is no reason to see Soto any differently than you did before the season. He is still a 23-year-old with tons of expectations and pressure, so it’s natural that he sees a few bumps in the road at some point. That is especially the case this season with the trade rumors constantly surrounding him.

He is still walking more than anybody else, so he still has a lot of value in points leagues or OBP leagues. His underlying stats do suggest a positive regression, so I wouldn’t be looking to move Soto in those leagues. When it comes to standard roto redraft leagues, there may be an opportunity to move Soto and get some value out of the name. Specifically in the situation where you need batting average and were relying on Soto to be an anchor in that category.

Again, I do think he will end the season with a far better than .220 average, but his drops in hard hits and massive struggles against breaking/off-speed pitches suggest that his average may not be spectacular in the short term. If you have the chance to cash in on a hefty return by utilizing Soto’s name value, that might be a move that saves your season. But that is a pretty specific situation, so rest assured that Juan Soto is going to be just fine. He is still a once-in-a-lifetime talent and will continue to be just that this year and for years to come.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Sign La'el Collins
Joe Flacco

Sees Most of First-Team Work on Friday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Misses Second Straight Practice
Justin Jefferson

Works With Trainers on Friday
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses in Practice
Saquon Barkley

in Line for More Receiving Work in 2025?
Juan Soto

Back in Lineup Against Giants
Mack Hollins

Patriots Have Big Plans for Mack Hollins?
Jalin Hyatt

Adds Weight Over the Offseason
Keenan Allen

Visiting Chargers on Friday
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Friday
George Springer

Goes on Concussion Injured List
Dyami Brown

"Explosive" in Jaguars Camp
James Proche II

Impressing in Titans Camp
Kyle Williams

"Up and Down" in Training Camp Practices
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parsons Requests Trade Out of Dallas
Kenny Pickett

Returns to Practice in Limited Capacity
JoJo Romero

the Top Candidate for Saves in St. Louis
Braelon Allen

Returns to Jets Practice
Xavier Worthy

Avoids Concussion
Nolan Arenado

Going on Injured List With Shoulder Injury
DeVonta Smith

Misses Fourth Practice
Dontayvion Wicks

Takes Part in Friday's Practice
Jayden Reed

Practicing on Friday
Conor McGregor

Enters UFC Testing Pool
Emanuel Wilson

Suffers Leg Injury on Friday
Bryce Young

and Starters Will Play First Two Preseason Games
Grayson Rodriguez

Considering Having Surgery
Devin Williams

Yankees Plan to Keep Devin Williams in Closer's Role
HyunSung Park

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Tatsuro Taira

Set For UFC Vegas 108 Main Event
Mateusz Rębecki

Mateusz Rebecki Looks For His Second Consecutive Win
Chris Duncan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Elves Brener

Looks For His Fourth UFC Win
Esteban Ribovics

Set For UFC Vegas 108 Main Card Bout
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos Aims To Bounce Back
Karol Rosa

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Nora Cornolle

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Neil Magny

Returns At UFC Vegas 108
Kevin Vallejos

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 108 Main Card
Danny Silva

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Mikal Bridges

Signs Extension with Knicks
Jackson Chourio

Expected to Go on Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Jonathan Aranda

Rays Hope Jonathan Aranda Can Return in September
Shelby Miller

Brewers Acquire Shelby Miller
José Caballero

Jose Caballero Shipped to the Bronx
Bailey Falter

Traded to Royals
Charlie Morton

Headed to Detroit
Camilo Doval

Yankees Acquire Camilo Doval
Griffin Jax

Traded to Tampa Bay
Connor McDavid

Oilers Hope to Finalize Connor McDavid's Contract Extension Soon
Willi Castro

Joining Cubs
BUF

Devon Levi Re-Signs With Sabres for Two Years
Merrill Kelly

Rangers to Acquire Merrill Kelly
Martin Pospisil

Signs Three-Year Extension
Ramón Laureano

Ramon Laureano Heading to San Diego
Ryan O'Hearn

Padres Acquire Ryan O'Hearn From Orioles
Jesús Sánchez

Jesus Sanchez Traded to the Astros
Carlos Correa

Astros Acquire Carlos Correa From the Twins
Dario Šarić

Dario Saric Hoping to Have Meaningful Role with Kings
Donte DiVincenzo

to Skip EuroBasket Due to Injury
Ayo Dosunmu

Set to Remain in Chicago
Malevy Leons

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Thunder
Daeqwon Plowden

Kings Pick Up Daeqwon Plowden on Two-Way Deal
Bryce McGowens

Signs Two-Way Deal with Pelicans
Jonathan Kuminga

Declines Latest Offers from Golden State
Gary Woodland

Eyeing Strong Finish to Reach Playoffs
Max McGreevy

Chasing a Miracle at Wyndham
Stephan Jaeger

a Solid Value Play at Wyndham Championship
Max Homa

Fighting to Salvage Disappointing Season
Nicolai Hojgaard

a Sleeper at Wyndham Championship
Rickie Fowler

Riding Quiet Momentum Into Wyndham
Brian Campbell

a Wild Card at Wyndham Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Flip the Script at Wyndham Championship
Aaron Rai

Finishes Tied For 34th at Open Championship
Andrew Novak

Finishes Tied For 63rd at Open Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 16th at Open Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Wins 3M Open
Tom Kim

Finishes Tied For 28th at 3M Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Misses Cut at 3M Open
Max Greyserman

Misses Cut at 3M Open
Jordan Spieth

Looks to End Regular Season on a High Note at Wyndham Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Tied For Fourth at Open Championship
Eric Cole

Misses Cut at 3M Open
Keith Mitchell

Needs a Big Week at Wyndham Championship
Robert MacIntyre

is the Perfect Kind of Ball-Striker for Wyndham Championship
Charlie McAvoy

Ready to Go for Next Season
Dylan Samberg

Agrees to Three-Year Contract with Jets
Michael Kim

Needs More Solid Finishes
NBA

Thanasis Antetokounmpo Added to Greece Training Camp Roster for EuroBasket 2025
Los Angeles Clippers

Patrick Baldwin Jr. Waived by Clippers
Josh Green

May Not be Ready for Start of Hornets Training Camp
NBA

Thomas Bryant Set to Move to Greece
Cam Thomas

Nets Far Apart in Contract Talks
Kristaps Porzingis

Feeling "Great" Ahead of New Season
Chris Paul

Hints He Could Extend His Career Beyond the 2025-26 Season
Brandon Miller

Close to 100 Percent
Jayden Struble

Canadiens Lock Up Jayden Struble for Two Years
Robert Whittaker

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Reinier de Ridder

Gets Split-Decision Win
Conor Timmins

Avoids Salary Arbitration with Two-Year Deal
Marcus McGhee

Drops Decision At UFC Abu Dhabi
Toronto Raptors

Colin Castleton Waived by Raptors on Monday
Petr Yan

Extends Win Streak
Marc-Andre Barriault

Suffers Decision Loss
Shara Magomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jose Ochoa

Dominated At UFC Abu Dhabi
MMA

Asu Almbayev Dominates At UFC Abu Dhabi
Kyle Larson

Falls Short of Back-To-Back Victories at Indianapolis
Denny Hamlin

Rallies Into Third Place At Indianapolis
Chase Briscoe

Pit Strategies End up Failing Chase Briscoe at Indianapolis
Ty Gibbs

Wins NASCAR's Inaugural In-Season Challenge Tournament
Ryan Preece

Finishes Fourth but Loses Ground to Playoff Cutline
Brad Keselowski

Has Good Strategy, but Not Enough to Win
Ryan Blaney

Bails from Hail Mary Strategy Attempt but Recovers to Finish Seventh
Tyler Reddick

Eliminated from Brickyard 400 in Crash After Top Five Run
Chicago Bulls

Billy Donovan Agrees to Contract Extension with Chicago
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Indianapolis This Week?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Indianapolis DFS Lineups?
NASCAR

Could A.J. Allmendinger be A Solid Tournament DFS Option?
Zane Smith

Is a Respectable Value Option for Indianapolis Despite Low Experience
Cole Custer

Is A Solid Value Option for Indianapolis DFS Lineups
Riley Herbst

Is an Unfavorable DFS Option for Indianapolis Lineups
Zeev Buium

Aims for Big Role Next Season
NHL

Conor Sheary Signs Tryout Deal with Rangers
Denny Hamlin

an Easy DFS Target After Wreck in Qualifying
Arvid Soderblom

Agrees to Two-Year Deal with Blackhawks
Kyle Larson

Will Start 13th to Defend Brickyard 400 Crown
Chase Briscoe

on Pole for Brickyard as Momentum Continues to Build
Ryan Blaney

Learned a Lot in Practice at Indianapolis
Brad Keselowski

Should Be Very Strong at Indianapolis
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Challenge for a Brickyard 400 Win on Sunday?
Ryan Preece

Don't Forget About Ryan Preece at Indianapolis
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF