June 16, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on the 2024 UFL Championship game.

Sadly and sweetly, we have reached the conclusory game of the 2024 UFL season. I am already yearning for the start of the 2025 season and eager to follow along as the draft happens, the rosters change, and 2024 stars get their NFL opportunities. There is plenty to reflect on: the great attendance numbers for some teams (and the awful numbers from others), encouraging social media exposure and TV ratings, and whatever a future expansion picture might look like. It looks like Spring Football is here to stay for the time being, but the accomplishments of the 2024 campaign need to be built upon to sustain security and growth.

Thankfully, we still have indoor/arena, European League of Football, and CFL action to take in, and the NFL/College Football seasons are really right around the corner. But--make sure to take in this Father's Day Championship Game for all that it is worth. It may not be the hometown attraction that the league was hoping for in St. Louis, but it is the matchup of the best team from each conference: the gold standard franchise of Spring Football against the team that the league had always hoped would end up in this spot.

I went 3-3 last week including player props, so let's finish the season strong and get down to discussing the UFL Championship. Thanks for riding with me this season folks.

UFL Championship Picks

Birmingham Stallions vs. San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, June 16th, at 5PM ET)

San Antonio (+3.5), Over 41.5, ML (+150)

I could get so very burned by going in this direction, but this is one I'll just have to dive into because this championship game is not as simple and chalky as we thought it would be. We can remember that the Birmingham Stallions beat the the Michigan Panthers 31-18 in the USFL Championship and that the ended the game on a crazy run, but we also need to remember how long it took for the Birmingham Stallions to get going last week. It has been those moments this season that have led to a loss (including 18-9 to San Antonio) and considerably closer games than we are used to seeing the Stallions play. They split time again last week between Adrian Martinez and Matt Corral to a combined 285 yards, three touchdowns, and two INT on 19/30 passing--with the top two benefactors being TE Jordan Thomas and WR Gary Jennings. The real offensive star was RB C.J. Marable, who ran for 77 yards on eight carries--and defensively, they shut Michigan out in the second half and recroded five sacks, seven tackles for loss, and three picks. The good news is that, other than the already inactive guys like Larry Rountree III and Mark Gilbert, Birmingham will not be missing any additional key players today.

That is not the case for the San Antonio Brahmas, who will be missing S Jordan Mosley in the title game. Even still, the Brahmas defense is in fantastic shape. Last week, they held St. Louis to just 15 points in front of the Battlehawks home crowd, tallying four sacks and nine TFL with strong performances from the likes of DTs Prince Emili/Caeveon Patton and LBs Tavante Beckett/Wyatt Ray. Offensively, Chase Garbers was efficient in terms of his completion percentage (71.4%) on 15/21 passing and actually hit over 13 yards per completion for two touchdowns and one interception. It was a well-rounded offensive outing too. John Lovett and Anthony McFarland Jr. combined for 198 yards and a score on 19 attempts out of the Brahmas backfield, and the receiving trip of Justin Smith, Jontre Kirklin, and Marquez Stevenson combined for 193 yards and a score. If I had to be critical, I would say that I would like to see Alize Mack get more than a single target, but I digress. St. Louis ended up having their moments and capitalizing on some mistakes to get the game close, but Will Reed's defense had the Battlehawks offense bewildered and frustrated all game, and A.J. Smith's offense is the one that took control of the game early and never relinquished it.

Everyone is motivated to win the championship, and who knows what the crowd composition might be between the two teams' fans and Battlehawks fans there to root for one team or the other. I'm sure that Skip Holtz and the Stallions have vengeance on their mind after losing to San Antonio during the regular season, but I'm also sure that the Brahmas have a lot of confidence coming into today, knowing that they have what it takes to get it done. We saw an upset in the 2023 XFL Championship Game, and it is not the Pittsburgh Maulers that the Stallions are facing this time. Birmingham was the best team all year, but this Brahmas team has looked better and better, and their stout defense and offensive depth can now match that of Birmingham's--even the quarterback performances are evening out. I faded the Brahmas for a little too long, not realizing the full scale of their defensive prowess, and the offense can be trusted so much more with McFarland in the lineup. I think that this is going to be a close game, with each team probably scoring at least 20 but no more than 25. That naturally lends to taking the Brahmas +3.5 and over 41.5. But for all of the reasons mentioned above, I think that the Brahmas have an excellent chance to become the inaugural UFL Champions. This is now an evenly-matched game that will come down to the wire, and so +150 as a ML play feels like a steal to me. Of course, things could turn out just the opposite. Anyhow, it's going to be a fun one--so everyone enjoy Father's Day, and enjoy the grand finale of the 2024 campaign.

Player Props of the Game: Anthony McFarland Anytime Touchdown (+110), Jace Sternberger Anytime Touchdown (+185)

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