Early FFPC ADP Observations - Running Back

July 19, 2019

Scott Engel analyzes 2019 fantasy football running back ADP trends for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) in terms of NFL player values. Who's being overvalued or undervalued?

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Throughout Fantasy Football draft season, we will check in on how High Stakes Players are viewing certain player selections. When we’re looking at Average Draft Positions from the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), we can determine the latest trends and outlooks through the lens of the world's high-stakes players. In this installment, we look at recent ADPs for Running Backs. You will note a few rookies have interesting situations here. 

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Early ADP Trends

Daring to invest in Dalvin Cook (FFPC ADP of 10 at RB): Despite his well-documented injury issues over his first two pro seasons, FFPC players are willing to take him as a top-10 RB. High stakes players are often more willing to take risks to get the desired results, and Cook still has a heck of a lot of upside. He is versatile and explosive and can be a major focal point of the Minnesota offense when he is available.

But many fantasy players are willing to take another shot on Cook too, as he does not have an ADP lower than 12 on any other site. If Cook actually plays close to a full schedule, he definitely has the abilities to produce as a fantasy RB1. 

Mild hesitation on Gurley (11): FFPC players are obviously still willing to take Todd Gurley as an RB1, although they have bumped him to the back of the chain. Players on other sites are a bit more aggressive, as he is going inside the top-10 and as early as seventh at the position.

This recent Fantasy injury article I did leading with Gurley indicates he simply is too big of a risk to take him as a top-12 RB. His chronic knee issues could lead to some extended absences in 2019. 

Moving on Mack (16): The FFPC crowd is slightly higher on Colts RB Marlon Mack than drafters on any other site. He is going at 19th on two other notable sites. It is not a major difference, but Mack had a breakthrough season last year and will be the finisher for an offense that may have the deepest and most impressive passing crew in the league this season. He could be a high-end RB2 for 2019. 

Raider rookie skepticism (20): Again, it is not a major difference, but FFPC drafters are lowest on Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs. Players on three other notable sites are taking him as early as 16th, and I am going to agree with them and go against the high stakers here. In an era where NFL teams have decreased the draft emphasis on the RB position, Jacobs was the only RB taken in the first round this season.

He is a well-rounded player who will be a very important piece of an improving offense. I believe Jacobs is a top-15 player who will make an instant impact, and I will personally take him higher than any of his ADPs indicate. 

Bigger on the Bear? (21): The FFPC players are highest on Bears rookie David Montgomery, as he is the 26th to 29th RB off the board at RB on other sites. I’m not with the high stakes crowd here, as I believe Montgomery is being overrated by many players and analysts. I cannot draft him as a fantasy RB2.

I may be the only one warning fantasy players not to overlook the presence of Mike Davis. He is going to make a push for quality playing time and could share carries with Montgomery or even (gasp) operate as the lead ball-carrier over him. Montgomery must earn the lead RB role that a lot of fantasy types are expecting him to easily walk into. 

Stiff-Arming Sony (25): The high stakes drafters in the FFPC seem to be approaching Sony Michel with more caution than players on other sites are. While he is going as early as 21st and 22nd on some other sites, the FFPC owners won’t take him until 25th at the position. Michel already entered the league as a flagged injury risk last year and he continues to wear the tag. Michel can be a high-end RB2 producer at times when available, and sometimes outstanding. But he does not catch enough passes, either, and that further dings his appeal in the eyes of many owners.

Michel is a strong RB2 when healthy, but make sure you handcuff rookie Damien Harris and back up the New England starter with other quality depth options if you take him as a second starter at the position. 

Not Quite Feeling the Philly Rookie (25): Players from the FFPC are taking a cautious approach on Eagles rookie Miles Sanders, taking him as the 25th RB off the board when he is going as early as 20th at the position on two other notable sites. Reports on Sanders so far have not been favorable, as he dealt with a hamstring injury during OTAs and there have been whispers about pass protection issues and sharing time in the backfield. There is general disdain for Jordan Howard, but it is not elevating the stock of Sanders too much. Hell, he'd have to look very good during the preseason to fully escape a fantasy RB3 label. 

A Bit Forward with Foreman (43): FFPC drafters are slightly higher on D’Onta Foreman than players on other sites. Foreman is going at 45 and 50 on two other platforms. On a related note, FFPC types are also slightly higher on Lamar Miller (30) than players on other sites. This is finally the season that Foreman is seemingly healthy and ready to cut into Miller’s workload. He should overtake him as the preferred goal-line runner for the Texans and Houston is reportedly planning to have the two RBs share time. Miller is in a contract year and we could see Foreman progressively overtake him, so he is a very good upside play as the 43rd RB off the board.

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