X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 3 Outliers

Week 3 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought many surprises and unexpected sleepers and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances in order to provide reasonable advice to fantasy owners.

Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, we are starting to get a better picture of the fantasy landscape as offensive roles continue to solidify. However, there were a few players that didn't have their normal roles in Week 3, and those situations warrant a closer look.

It's also a little concerning that certain players, such as Sony Michel, continue to underperform. At this point, we have to decide if multiple disappointing performances are the start of a trend or simply an early-season slump.

Now, we will take a look at some of the outlier performances from Week 3 and evaluate how to move forward.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)

Week 3 Stats: 20 carries, 36 yards, 1 TD

The Philadelphia Eagles are No. 3 in the NFL for rushing defense, surrendering just 2.9 yards-per-carry through the first three weeks of the season. Kerryon Johnson looks to be moving well and according to PFF, has gained an average of 2.21 yards-after-contact while averaging just 2.63 yards-per-carry. The numbers indicate that Johnson is creating yards on his own, but his offensive line isn't getting much blocked for him up front. As a result, he was stifled in this matchup, only saved by a one-yard plunge over the goal-line on a second chance.

Bottom Line:

Kerryon Johnson is getting a lot of work for the Lions, averaging 16 carries and two passing targets through the first three weeks of the season. The Lions offensive line was banged up to start the year and the unit as a whole is starting to get healthier. Johnson is a buy-low candidate, and if you own him, hold steady despite his low yards-per-carry, because things will get better as the offensive line continues to gel.

 

Josh Jacobs (RB, OAK)

Week 3 Stats: 10 carries, 44 yards, 2 targets, 0 catches

Josh Jacobs was sick leading up to the Raiders Week 3 contest against the Vikings and reports out of Oakland claimed that Jacobs lost 10 pounds during the week. Jacobs was likely weakened while recovering from his illness and should bounce back in Week 4.

Bottom Line:

Don’t read too much into Jacobs’ poor Week 3 performance. The latest word out of Oakland is that they may plan to involve him in the passing game more as well.

 

Sony Michel (RB, NE)

Week 3 Stats: 9 carries, 11 yards, 1 TD

In 2018, Michel started slow out of the gate, but his inability to create yards on his own early this season is starting to get a little concerning. In Week 2 against Miami, the second-worst run defense in the league, Michel was able to run for 3.95 yards-per-carry. In Weeks 1 and 3, Michel faced run defenses that were ranked in the top half of the NFL and he struggled, running for just 0.93 and 1.22 yards-per-carry in each respective game.

Bottom Line:

If you try to trade Sony Michel right now, you are selling low and likely won't get a good return. At this point, Michel is still getting significant opportunities to carry the ball in the Patriots offense, so you need to keep him on your roster if you own him. However, you should only start him in 12-team leagues if he has a favorable matchup until he turns things around running the ball, improving on his 1.67 yards-after-contact.

 

Auden Tate (WR, CIN)

Week 3 Stats: 10 targets, 6 catches, 88 yards

Auden Tate started in place of Damion Willis in Week 3, who had been starting in place of the injured AJ Green (ankle). Out of all the Bengals wide receivers, Tate had the most favorable matchup in Week 3, finding himself covered by Levi Wallace on most of his routes. Tate is physically imposing, standing 6'5", weighing in at 228 pounds, and he looks the part. This was Tate's first real opportunity to perform at the NFL level and he made the most of it.

Bottom Line:

Don’t spend a significant amount of FAAB on Tate unless you need a one-week rental at wide receiver. Once Green returns to the lineup, Tate will disappear from fantasy relevancy.

 

Preston Williams (WR, MIA)

Week 3 Stats: 12 targets, 4 catches, 68 yards

Through the first two games of the season, Williams played on just 55.86% of the Dolphins offensive snaps. In Week 3, with Josh Rosen making his first start under center for the Dolphins, Williams played on all of the Dolphins offensive snaps and was targeted a team-high 12 times, catching just four of those balls for 68 yards.

Bottom Line:

Williams may be Josh Rosen’s favorite target and if you need help a wide receiver, he may be the man you need. Williams was used heavily in Week 3 and may be on the verge of a breakout if he continues to play a majority of the Dolphins offensive snaps.

 

D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

Week 3 Stats: 2 targets, 1 catch, 52 yards and 1 TD

In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers Defense put up a tremendous effort against the high-octane Cardinals offense, sacking rookie quarterback Kyler Murray eight times. As a result, Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen only had to put the ball in the air 26 times a significant percentage (26.9%) of which went towards tight end Greg Olsen, exploiting that coverage mismatch. Moore's one reception went for a long touchdown, salvaging his fantasy day. There are still reasons to worry about Moore with his low target volume and no Cam Newton around for another week.

Bottom Line:

Don’t read into the lack of targets too much, it was more a product of game-flow and matchups than Moore's ability to get open or Allen's ability as a passer. If an owner in your league is unsettled by the lack of targets in Week 3, buy low on Moore.

 

Jordan Akins (TE, HOU)

Week 3 Stats: 5 targets, 3 catches, 73 yards and 2 TD

In Week 1, Akins played on 70.3% of the Texans offensive snaps. His snap-share went down to 59.4% in Week 2 and reduced even further down to 45% in Week 3. Even though Akins snaps have been going down, over that same span, his targets have gone from two in Week 1 to five in Week 3.

Bottom Line:

One of Akins touchdowns came on a play that was extended by a scrambling Deshaun Watson where Akins caught a short pass and ran over 40 yards for the score. Akins runs well and demonstrated big-play ability in Week 3, but he simply isn't playing enough to warrant a spot in your starting lineup. If you are in a 14-team league or struggling at the tight end position, Akin may be worth a speculative add.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Jauan Jennings

Gets Incentives Added to Contract
Jakobi Meyers

Unsure About Potential Extension
Matthew Stafford

Off Injury Report Ahead of Week 1
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Kyle Finnegan

Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Jackson Chourio

Absent on Wednesday With Hamstring Cramp
Roman Anthony

Officially Goes on Injured List
Jauan Jennings

Limited on Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 1
Malik Nabers

Not on Initial Injury Report
Roman Anthony

"High Probability" Roman Anthony Lands on Injured List
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Jason Adam

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Roman Anthony

Will Undergo MRI on Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Travis Hunter

Jaguars List Travis Hunter as Starting Wide Receiver, Backup Cornerback
Kyle Tucker

Leaves With Calf Tightness on Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Max Scherzer

Blue Jays Confident Max Scherzer Will Make Saturday Start Despite Back Tightness
Roman Anthony

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Done for the Year With Torn ACL
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Nick Kurtz

Back in Action on Tuesday
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Nick Lodolo

Scratched With Illness
Dalton Kincaid

Role Not Expected to Grow?
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
Najee Harris

Says He's Expecting to Play Against Chiefs
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Departs Monday with Quad Injury
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP