RADIO
We are now almost halfway to the fantasy championship. It's been a season full of twists and turns, and as always, a shocking amount of unpredictability. Week 7 was perhaps the most difficult week this season with multiple injuries breaking the hearts and crushing the hopes of fantasy managers.
Unfortunately, teams toward the bottom of the standings may be calling it quits at this point in the year, but most should still be doing everything in their power to compete. If you have your sights set on the playoffs with a roster decimated by injuries, it's crucial to start sending out some offers before your league's trade deadline.
I will be highlighting two players that should see their value increase in the coming weeks and two others that could plummet down the rest-of-season rankings. Before we dive into it, let's review how things are trending for the players discussed last week.
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Last Week's Recap
There are both positive and negative takeaways from last week's column.
Starting with the good, Aaron Jones had his second multi-touchdown performance of 2022 in Week 7. Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers held true to their words and got Jones the ball frequently. Although he only handled eight carries, Jones saw a team-high of 10 targets, by far his most of the season. The Packers fell to Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders, but Jones should remain the focal point of the offense going forward.
Shockingly, Lamar Jackson finished with fewer than 20 fantasy points for the fourth consecutive week. The offense got starting wide receiver Rashod Bateman back, but Gus Edwards stole the show in his return with two rushing touchdowns. This is not what stands out most when you look at this game's box score, though.
Mark Andrews on National Tight Ends Day:
0 REC
0 YDS pic.twitter.com/yfJuaU2RFR— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 23, 2022
It's possible that Mark Andrews, who missed multiple practices ahead of last Sunday, was hampered by his knee injury and was intentionally utilized sparingly. Hopefully, the star tight end will be a full-go for Thursday night and can help boost Jackson back up to top-three fantasy QB value.
The verdict is still out on Darrell Henderson Jr. as Los Angeles had a bye in Week 7. The Rams were in talks with the Panthers, but ultimately did not trade for Christian McCaffrey, meaning Henderson's job as the starting running back is safe for now. It would still be surprising to see him get a heavy workload in Week 8 against a stingy San Francisco run defense.
JuJu Smith-Schuster managed to outdo his breakout in Week 6 with a 7-for-124-and-one explosion in Week 7. It still isn't a guarantee that he will be the Chiefs' every-week WR1, but he is the one to start in fantasy lineups at the moment. With plenty of rumors circulating that Kansas City could add a receiver via trade or free agent signing, dealing Smith-Schuster while he's hot still may be the right call.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Labeling the consensus first-overall pick in most fantasy drafts a buy-low candidate sounds ludicrous, but it's now or never. Jonathan Taylor is currently the fantasy RB21 in PPR points per game and was only given 10 carries this past Sunday after a two-week absence.
Add in the fact that Matt Ryan is injured and reportedly the backup for the rest of the season regardless of health, and fantasy managers everywhere are likely concerned with what's going on in Indianapolis. I won't argue that second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger is going to fix the Colts' offense, but I don't believe Taylor gets worse with him under center. These numbers should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but Ehlinger looked great this preseason.
#Colts new starting QB Sam Ehlinger had a 90.6 @PFF grade this preseason.
He went 24-of-29, 289 yards, four TDs, 0 INTs, one big-time throw, zero turnover-worthy plays.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 24, 2022
Ehlinger was not an incredible NFL prospect by any means, but his ability to scramble is evidenced by his college statistics. The Texas product accumulated 1903 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns in four collegiate years and will look to use his legs to create at the professional level. This will be especially helpful behind a struggling Colts offensive line.
What you might be thinking is that a mobile quarterback will take away from Taylor's opportunities, specifically near the end zone. While it's certainly possible that Ehlinger scores a few times at the goal line, the quarterback change should still lead to a bump in overall volume for Taylor.
Through seven weeks, Matt Ryan attempted 297 passes, the second-most in the league to only Justin Herbert. Additionally, Indianapolis currently ranks 31st in rushing play percentage, a metric in which the team has finished inside the top-10 in each of the past three seasons. Simply put, Ehlinger, who is yet to make his first big-league start, is not going to attempt over 42 passes per game like Ryan. Expect the Colts to lean on their best player as they are still in the mix for the AFC South division title.
Just to alleviate any further concerns with Taylor himself, the first-team All-Pro averaged 5.8 yards per carry last week and was given eight targets. He posted 15.5 PPR fantasy points, yet his performance left much to be desired. He took the field for a season-low 55 percent of snaps, indicating that the Colts had no intentions of force-feeding Taylor the ball in his first game back from an ankle injury.
All it takes is one monstrous showing from Taylor, and he will instantly be considered a top-three fantasy running back once again. Make an offer for him now while he is not.
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
This one feels a bit scary. DJ Moore has been one of the most disappointing fantasy draft picks this season. After being selected as a top-15 wide receiver, Moore has finished more weeks outside of the top-50 than inside the top-24. Fortunately, there are finally signs of life with Moore scoring as the WR9 this past week.
What changed? For starters, the Panthers traded away superstar running back Christian McCaffrey and field-stretching wideout Robbie Anderson. Perhaps even more importantly, though, PJ Walker started and led the team to a divisional win in Week 7. Head coach Steve Wilks announced that Walker earned another start, which is great news for Moore.
There is not a huge sample to work with, but in four starts since the beginning of the 2020 season, Walker has targeted Moore almost nine times per game. Better yet, McCaffrey was not on the field for two of those contests in which Moore earned a 38 percent target share. His efficiency metrics are also way up when compared to his numbers with Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold at the helm.
We now have a 174-route sample size across three seasons of DJ Moore catching passes from PJ Walker.
⬇️ DJ Moore splits ⬇️
Target per route run rate
27% - PJ Walker at QB
26% - Darnold
21% - BakerYard per route run rate
1.97 - PJ
1.88 - Darnold
1.15 - Baker https://t.co/GcmVm6oNKQ— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 25, 2022
No one should project Walker to catapult Moore into fantasy WR1 territory for the remainder of the season, but a WR2 finish is reasonable. He can be acquired for much less at the moment and may have even been dropped in some shallow leagues.
There are also plenty of NFL teams interested in trading for Moore ahead of the November first deadline, but it has been reported that Carolina views the 25-year-old as a foundational piece. If he is moved for draft capital too rich for the front office to pass on, it will be to a competing roster with a need at the position. Moore's value should only increase from here on out.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders stunned the Green Bay Packers on Sunday with Taylor Heinicke under center. It's safe to say at this point, though, that the Packers simply aren't a good football team. Heinicke struggled early on and finished the game with a lower QBR than Rodgers, but was still able to come out victorious.
Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin found success with Heinicke last year and posted five receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown in the quarterback's 2022 season debut. With Carson Wentz on Injured Reserve, some fantasy managers may be excited about McLaurin's prospects over the next few weeks.
McLaurin's eight targets tied him with Curtis Samuel for the most on the team in Week 7. Samuel currently leads Washington in targets through seven games and has seen the most utilization among its receivers. This usage persisted with Heinicke as QB1.
Week 7 WR Fantasy Usage
1 Mike Evans (20.8 exp half PPR)
2 Tyreek Hill (17.7)
3 DeAndre Hopkins (17.2)
4 Chris Olave (17.1)
5 Chris Godwin (15.3) Full tilt
6 Ja'Marr Chase (15.3)
7 Brandon Aiyuk (15.2)
8 Christian Kirk (14.6)
9 Curtis Samuel (14.6)
10 Zay Jones (14.0) Redacted??— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 24, 2022
Rookie Jahan Dotson was also heavily involved through the first four weeks, and although he has been hampered by a hamstring injury, should return to the lineup soon. It's hard to have faith in tight end Logan Thomas to get and stay healthy, but the veteran will also introduce target competition for McLaurin when active.
Yet another reason to be concerned about McLaurin's fantasy production moving forward is his upcoming schedule. The Commanders have one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the league when it comes to fantasy wide receivers. The Colts, who have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to receivers, are on tap for Week 8, and tough matchups with the Eagles, Texans, and Giants are all on the horizon before Washington's Week 14 bye.
There is definitely a chance that Wentz's time as the team's starter has come to an end even when healthy, but this doesn't guarantee that Heinicke will remain atop the depth chart for the rest of the season. Washington currently sits at 3-4, firmly at the bottom of the competitive NFC East. Unless more wins start coming quickly, we could see rookie Sam Howell get some starts as the team decides whether or not to draft a quarterback next April.
McLaurin is a talented wide receiver, but there is a lot working against him becoming an every-week WR2. Capitalize on his big day before his value takes a hit.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
The Detroit Lions have allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. In four of their six games, they have surrendered multiple rushing touchdowns. In other words, Ezekiel Elliott was destined for success in Week 7.
Zeke took advantage of his opportunity and found the end zone twice, finishing as the fantasy RB12 for the second straight week. The Cowboys' schedule for the rest of the season is appetizing for running backs, but this could be better news for Tony Pollard than Elliott.
Pollard out-snapped Elliott for the first time this season this past Sunday, and he's already been out-producing him on a per-touch basis.
#Cowboys RB Tony Pollard is @PFF's No. 3 graded running back on the season.
He continues to be one of the NFL's most explosive RBs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) October 24, 2022
Although Pollard has not been used in the passing game as much as some may have expected, he has still seen 10 more targets than Elliott on the season. The lack of receiving production has been concerning for Zeke all year long as he has been effective as a pass-catcher throughout his career.
Elliott did sustain a knee injury in the second quarter of Week 7's contest but did not seem to be limited at all in the second half in which he scored both of his touchdowns. Fantasy managers should expect Elliott and Pollard to keep splitting the backfield work, but if Pollard's upward trajectory continues, Elliott will be a true touchdown-or-bust fantasy option. Frankly, he already was, as all three of his top-24 weekly finishes have come in games that he scored.
If fewer opportunities become the norm for the 27-year-old, his value will quickly plummet. Trade him ahead of Week 8 fresh off of his best outing of the season.
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