RADIO
It's been a long time since it looked like this Western conference was the best in the whole division. What, with their talent on both offense and defense, their litany of stars and excitement, and so many amazing options at both RB, so much.....
Oh, the AFC West. My apologies. They are, uh, mostly fine.
But really, a few years after being the toast of the town (and also the Oakland Raiders), the AFC West is certainly in a time of transition, both in reality and in fantasy. The best quarterback in the division is a 36 year old, criminally underrated arm, who looked to finally have a complete offense before Hunter Henry was declared out for the season. The Kansas City Chiefs sent Alex Smith packing to usher in the Patrick Mahomes era. Denver kept assuring people they had an exciting up-and-coming quarterback before finally just trading for one. And by the time I write this column next year, the Raiders will be playing in another state entirely, yet we still won't know how to properly evaluate Amari Cooper.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Outside of the obvious, the best offensive contributor will be __________
- Tyrell Williams
- Antonio Gates
- Mike Williams
- Travis Benjamin
Rule out the number ones real quick; take away Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, and, hell, take away the defense. Who is really left in this offense that you can depend on, if not weekly then at least in BYE weeks? Despite my hype on every second or third-year receiver in the league, Mike Williams is only a solid maybe. Travis Benjamin has once again done away with any opportunity and instead simply stayed at a forever WR3 in this offense. Antonio Gates is still rumored to be coming back, but we're well past "go or get off the pot" time. It leaves us with Tyrell Williams, who reminds me a bit of Davante Adams in year two-going-on-three. Williams had a breakout campaign, couldn't do much with it in year two as the offense didn't do much with him, and starts 2018 as the #2 receiver in this offense. He's been the 64th WR off the board in standard leagues, below guys like Geronimo Allison and Josh Doctson.
I've said a lot that there are some real last-pick-in-the-draft guys worth monitoring, but I truly believe Tyrell Williams should be rostered in at least 12-man leagues, ahead of Mike Williams. And I love Mike Williams, but given a so-so campaign in preseason, there's a very real chance we've once again bought in on the hype of the sophomore too much and ignored a player more poised to actually break out once and for all.
Kansas City Chiefs
_________ will drop in a lot of drafts, and I'd recommend taking him
- Kareem Hunt
- Tyreek Hill
- Sammy Watkins
- Patrick Mahomes
In PPR, Tyreek Hill is currently going as a top-12 player. Sammy Watkins is going in the ninth round among guys like Devin Funchess and Jordan Reed. Patrick Mahomes is strictly a dynasty or keeper league play, and drafting him in any other format is just being a homer or being cute. These are all about the right places. But Tyreek Hill, going at about pick 25, is probably the best among the bunch of players he's being drafted around (per Fantasy Football Calculator, it's Joe Mixon, Mike Evans, Jerick McKinnon, and TY Hilton). There is a trend I'm seeing in my drafts though, and it usually involves teams trying to lock up 2 RBs in the first three rounds, meaning Hill is falling to mid-third round in ten team drafts.
Hill was a lighthouse in 2017, a consistent source of production for the Chiefs, especially in the second half of the season, save for the fact that he was seeing a touchdown total more consistent with fantasy WR2's. That should change with Mahomes, and may account for some deeper production for the talented receiver. I wouldn't say take him at 25 full stop, but keep an eye on him if he falls and is available to you in the third or fourth round, a casualty of the sexy, RB-centric sleeper-focused drafts permeating 2018.
Denver Broncos
PICK ONE: Emmanuel Sanders or Demariyus Thomas
Don't let the performance of Demariyus Thomas in 2017 fool you, the shift to Case Keenum is a boon to Emmanuel Sanders and should mean that the 28th (!!) wide receiver off the board per his ADP is simply an error by us as rankers. Chris Mangano summed it up nicely in his Mid-Round Targets targets, and PFF's Scott Barrett highlighted succinctly how Sanders is being utilized in the snap-and-route count in preseason so far.
Demariyus Thomas is being taken well ahead of his co-receiver in the slot, but Sanders is being criminally undervalued, and could see a resurgence in fantasy that'll make everyone wonder why we took him only slightly ahead of Julian Edelman who is suspended for more than a quarter of the fantasy football regular season. And that criticism will be well earned.
Save Your Dollar for _________
- Jordan Leslie
- Courtland Sutton
- Phillip Lindsay
- Justin Forsett
Shoutout to everyone who looked at this list and went "wait is Justin Forsett really on the Broncos?" Yeah! Weird right? Anyway, Courtland Sutton jumps out as obvious here, but if either Sanders or Thomas go down, there isn't much depth here, and the rookie receiver could stumble his way into a Rookie of the Year conversation, at least among the pass catchers.
Oakland Raiders
The real sleeper in this offense is ____________
A: Jordy Nelson
B: Marshawn Lynch
C: Derek Carr
D: Martavis Bryant
I've heard it all. "It's gonna be Marshawn Lynch this year." "You have to like Martavis Bryant/Jordy Nelson in a comeback year." "Oh hey maybe Jared Cook is good at football." All good thoughts! All wrong. As the Oakland Raiders still refuse to pay Khalil Mack, and we can't pretend that John Gruden is going to immediately transform this team, this team is staring mediocrity and committee play in the face. While that's problematic for fantasy, the only player you can take a flyer on believing that the coaching staff will prioritize him is.... Derek Carr.
It's a little strange that the guy who hosted years of a program grilling quarterbacks isn't immediately being touted as the guy who can fix Derek Carr (at least in fantasy circles; in local news circles, that's generally the narrative.) Carr is barely being taken in 2QB leagues, but if you're in such a league and decided to wait on that second play caller, Carr is absolutely worth a flyer as he looks to correct a turnover problem that really plagued him in the second half. While it's hard to determine if anyone outside of Amari Cooper will be any sort of marquee fantasy talent, Carr is quietly carrying the best opportunity.
