RADIO
In lieu of a fun, clever fantasy football related story to get you excited about the AFC South, the best division I've covered so far in this series, I'll simply show you an email I received from my grandmother, who was giving my mother fantasy football advice.
Before reading, take a second and think about that sentence. Did anyone else get mocked for playing this game at a certain point in their lives, if not recently?
Look how far we've come.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
AFC South Pop Quiz
Here's grandma's email:
"my friend says the that the fantasy
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My friend, Kay, at the pool, is a big fantasy football person and she says get Fantasy Index which comes out every Monday and you probably only need to get it the Monday before you draft. It's a lot of stuff and tells about the players and their statistics and they are located in Seattle. She says be sure to get a good running back that scores. She won the year before last in their group and was second last year. She says it is lots of fun. She does it with paper but thinks you can do it over the internet.
Good Luck
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i
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monday
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I personally think it's a bold move to draft Will Monday, but for you grandma, I'll do it. Now, onto the NFC South.
Houston Texans
No, the price on ___________ isn't as crazy as you think
In my end-of-the-year column on breakout quarterbacks of 2017, I noted that Deshaun Watson would have been the best quarterback of 2017 had he kept his six-game pace and remained healthy. Of course, that trendy analysis has been parroted all offseason (thanks for reading guys) so there isn't much of a buy-low opportunity left on the talented signal caller, and if anything there are more questions about what his 2018 will look like. Our experts have him ranked as the fourth-best quarterback heading into 2018, and his ADP in standard leagues is the second quarterback coming off the board. It's very easy to go "that's too high for that guy."
If anything, this year I'm reverting back to my strategy of prioritizing the positions that other teams are foregoing, especially quarterback. While expert after expert is saying to ignore quarterbacks, defenses, and kickers until you absolutely have to, I'd advise playing against that trend. In this case, Deshaun Watson plus a replacement level quarterback, which you'll need to draft while we evaluate if Watson is injury prone, should place you solidly with a top-5 option dependent on health. As I wrote in the article, very few quarterbacks can consistently rank in the top-5, so if you have a shot to get one that will likely run the ball in, you'll have to go for it.
Indianapolis Colts
It feels like everyone is forgetting about __________
A player "failing" a physical with a team doesn't normally bounce back to be a number 2 wide receiver in a productive offense, but Ryan Grant being virtually undrafted feels more like an oversight than analysis. Grant was boom-or-bust in an overcrowded Washington Redskins offense, but no such problem exists for him in Indianapolis. While Grant hasn't impressed at camp, Andrew Luck is still Andrew Luck, meaning that Grant should either see him share of the work quickly or be usurped quickly for a superior option. Either way, in the very deepest of leagues, I'd rather have a guy like Grant (or whoever the Colts WR2 is) compared to a Danny Amendola or Corey Coleman.
Tennessee Titans
One breakout season, delivered by __________
A: Corey Davis
B: Taywan Taylor
C: Dion Lewis
D: Derrick Henry
I think it's insane that Derrick Henry is going as the 15th RB per Fantasy Football Calculator, but because he'll be left out of the receiving game while Dion Lewis quietly thrives there, he may not quite qualify for "breakout" designation. No, that role will go to Corey Davis, who I am unapologetically standing for this season. With a 20% target share, with what has to be a bigger focus on the passing game in 2018, and with his full health back, Corey Davis has to improve here and see the endzone a few times at some point. I like Taywan Taylor and Rishard Matthews in deeper leagues, towards the end of the draft, because I see them getting more work as well. But with Davis going around Marvin Jones, Alshon Jeffery, and Will Fuller, it's not particularly close for me when it comes to who I'd pick.
Remember: Everyone Needs a Defense, Why Not Tennessee?
The Tennessee Titans can count themselves as one of the few teams that have their run-block, pass-block, and secondary all ranked in the top 13 (along with the Vikings, Broncos, and Jaguars) off Pro Football Focuses defensive rankings while basically being left as the last picked in 10 or 12 team leagues per their ADP. While we expect a lot of offense out of this division, that doesn't mean the defense is going to face a ton of tough matchups or situations they can't handle. If you're left picking between a handful of defenses, add Tennessee to your list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm yet another fantasy analyst telling you to grab ____________
A: Keelan Cole
B: TJ Yeldon
C: Dede Westbrook
D: Corey Grant
They are going close enough to make sure we differentiate between them, but Keelan Cole's usage in 2017 represented a shift in how the receivers were utilized. While Westbrook is going into his second year and could easily make a Corey Davis-esque jump in his usage, Westbrook went from the best replacement WR1 to the end of the season to allow Cole to take that role. While it's hard to tell if that was a Bortles preference or play-calling, the Jaguars haven't shifted in terms of their coordinators or coaching, so that trend shall continue with Lee being out.
Ultimately, given that they are both going at about WR5/WR6 levels (and likely racing up draft boards as we speak) it's not crazy to grab both and ride the pine.
Now a small note, if you are a Leonard Fournette owner and want to make sure you have insurance, it's a must to have Corey Grant (and more importantly give up on the TJ Yeldon myth. It's just not ever happening). The talented third year shouldn't take anything from Fournette, but if Fournette goes down again, expect Grant to take the lion's share of work.
