X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Take a Hike - The Importance of Grabbing an Elite QB

Depending on when you learned, or were taught, to play fantasy football, you picked up on a certain trend, whether consciously or subconsciously. While the fantasy community loves to talk about "Zero RB", it's a strategy that only got its name a few years ago.

Many of us that get tweeted or asked fantasy football questions each week have a hard time remembering, when push comes to shove, how Peyton Manning performed as a week-to-week fantasy starter when he was playing in Indianapolis, let alone guys like Jim Harbaugh.

Because when we talk about the game being "different back then," we actually don't have to look back that far to see how positions radically changed over five year increments.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

It's All About the Tiers

So, let's take QB, specifically Jim Harbaugh. If you're familiar with the San Francisco 49ers coach, you're probably less familiar with the Indianapolis Colts starter. And twenty years ago, that starter was a fantasy liability. the 25th-ranked quarterback in terms of points per game (with at least five starts) at a whopping 10 points per game. This also made Jim the 94th player overall by the same metric, which sounds generous to some degree, but the 25th-ranked quarterback in 2016 (Ryan Tannehill) was good for the 54th-ranked overall player in points per game, all in relation to PPR scoring.

Why does all of this matter? Because it explains the growing trend of "You Can Wait on a Quarterback." Year after year, it's become something more prevalent because quarterbacks, no matter who they are, are still largely the highest scoring position by per game score. Jameis Winston, who probably didn't win many leagues for people with his 15 points per game good for 20th-best at his position, also scored more points per game than Larry Fitzgerald, the guy who led the NFL in receptions! In a PPR league!

Ok, now that I've gotten past my feigned shock to prove a point, when quarterbacks as a whole tend to have this built in cushioning for scores, it means less and less reliance on picking a QB early on. If just about anyone can be better than the receiver with the most receptions, than who cares who you pick?

Here's where the system gets the most interesting. The biggest gap for nearly every position sits at the top. The absolute best guy? He's markedly better than the 10th guy. David Johnson this year was four points a game better than Ezekiel Elliott, which made the only guy in front of him in PPR scoring, Le'Veon Bell, five points better than the third best player at his position. Of course, that put Johnson and Bell at least ten points ahead of the 10th-best guy, Mark Ingram. But once you get past the top 10, the gap shrinks big time. Players 11 through 20 at WR, in PPR scoring, were separated by no more than two and a half total points in 2016 and 2015. For RB, this looked similar.

After (generally) the top 10 project wide receivers and the top 10 projected running backs are all off the board, then and only then based off of ADP are you left with the decision that brought you to this article. Do you draft a quarterback, or another running back or wide receiver?

We'll qualify an "elite" quarterback in this case as a guy who will get you twenty points a game. And dependent on the last three years, you're looking at a range of only four guys who have done it at least twice: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. Three of the five of those guys were on at least 40% of teams that went to the playoffs (sorry, Luck and Wilson owners) in 2016.

You cannot tell, straight away, who is going to be a top-10 wide receiver or running back each year. There are guys who have proven to be repeated linchpins in great fantasy rosters for a few years, but it's worth remembering that the average career of a quarterback in the NFL is three years. The average career of all positions is slightly more than two and a half years, each statistic a little bleak for the purposes of fantasy football. But it applies. Over that three year period, nine different wide receivers have claimed the title of "top five player in points per game." 12 different running backs hold that title over the same period. For QBs, it was just five guys, all averaging at least 20 points a game each season.

It's a long, long way to go to make a fantasy point. If you have an obvious top-five RB, you have to take him. If you have a young WR you believe could be a top-10 guy, take him too. It's after these choices that you'll be left with the possibility of picking from some of the best, most consistent arms in the game, or another offensive player who, statistically speaking, is probably worth one to two points of difference from a guy you'll pick in the next round anyway. Yes, you could hit the lottery with a one-two running back punch who ends up topping the league and running you straight to the championship. And even if you pick another receiver to go along with that combo, there is basically no reason why you couldn't also grab a consistent beacon of offensive production, and shore up a greater chance at reaching the playoffs.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Moritz Wagner

Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Jaxson Hayes

Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF