January 27, 2018

Cliff Clinton takes a look back at the quarterbacks who took the next step towards fantasy football glory in 2017.

If you have to build a football team, start with the QB first. If you have to build a fantasy football team, you can do one of three things:

1. Pick a surefire guy in the second or third round, confident that the player you picked will be a lock, worry about nothing else.
2. Roll the dice on a comeback season from a seasoned veteran who may have under-performed last year (see: Big Ben) or a can-he-keep-this-going type player who is still young and can either continue his pace or advance to the next level (see: Derek Carr.) In fact, take two of these guys, ride the hot hand, and see what happens.
3. Draft a guy who you like, with no regard to variables. Favorite team? I would’ve ended up with Jimmy Garoppolo halfway through the season. Like watching him play? It’s how my wife ended up with Dak Prescott, while openly laughing at me as I took Philip Rivers.

 
Use your analytical hat and ask which one of these is the smartest way to draft a QB? The dumbest? Ok, now take your hat off and allow yourself to judge if the “smartest” way ended up serving you the way you had hoped, or did you have a dumb friend who is an Eagles fan who ended up with Carson Wentz, meaning this guy gets to both smack talk you AND get better results despite not using the quote unquote best method. It’s both the great joy and curse of fantasy; you can arbitrarily take one of the 32 starters in the league, just cause you want to, and potentially do better than the smartest guy in the room.

The fact is, 2017 was really the year of the breakout quarterback. For a position that has oftentimes been stagnant with familiar names, this year we got to see, more than ever, what the future looks like at the position. Whether they won you a league, a bet, or a game that will keep you thinking about him for the whole offseason, here were the breakout quarterbacks of 2017.

Quarterback Breakouts

Carson Wentz - Philadelphia Eagles

You're gonna spend the entire offseason reading Carson Wentz was in 2017, and rightly so, especially from the guys who grabbed him at the end of the draft or picked him up from waivers. Through the 13 games he played, Wentz was the owner of the fourth best passer rating per Pro Football Reference, and was within one passing TD of being tied for league leader in the category alongside Russell Wilson. Some will rightfully point to the touchdown numbers are being unsustainable, at least in the short term, a problem that the Eagles could fix if they find a reliable goal line back in the future.

While there may be some truth to that, the Eagles also weren't attempting any sort of outlandish number of passes per game, as Wentz was used for about four pass attempts less per game on average compared to his rookie year. What's more, the team didn't go to Wentz often for long passes, meaning that his 12.4 yards per completion isn't skewed by more Hail Mary's than any other quarterbacks. It all points to an Eagles offense that may end up having Wentz throw more next year, for longer, with an eye on improving figures such as completion percentage. In short, Wentz was the fourth best fantasy QB, despite missing three games, not being a top-10 QB in terms of completion percentage, and not even attempting as many passes as nearly all of the quarterbacks he outperformed. If he is used more and improves his completion percentage, he'll rightfully be included in the discussions for first QB off the board.

Jared Goff - Los Angeles Rams

The tale of the tape for Jared Goff is nearly as impressive, as the guy who floundered in Jeff Fisher's offense in his rookie year found a more sure footing in 2017. If it weren't for Wentz and his performance, we would be devoting more time to talking about how Goff changed his rookie stat line from a 5-7 TD/INT ratio to a 28-7 ratio, or that he finished only behind Roethlisberger in Pro Football Reference's long pass stat with 94, or that he was the league leader in average yards per completion.

These are all phenomenal statistics for a sophomore QB whose best WR was Robert Woods, but between Wentz and Todd Gurley, Goff is at risk of being remembered as a second fiddle in whatever discussion we have about his performance in 2017. The fact that he built such a rock solid campaign in 2017, registering league-high marks in both yards per passing attempt (8.0, second behind Drew Brees) and yards per completion (12.9, best in the league) without even breaking 500 pass attempts, means that Goff is potentially a better fantasy choice than Wentz in 2018 while likely have a significantly lower ADP. Goff may be the bridesmaid for 2017, but it may not be much longer until he vaults into an MVP worthy conversation in his own right.

Alex Smith - Kansas City Chiefs

He's certainly the oldest name on the breakout list, but considering Alex Smith was undrafted in many leagues while earning the title as one of the most valuable QBs in both fantasy and actual football, it's worth discussing how Smith had a year, after a twelve year career, that may largely be considered one of his best ever. Color commentators and analysts spent the postseason, and will likely to spend the offseason, discussing how the quarterback isn't in the Chiefs plans in 2018, making it more of a crime that a truly great year of QB play will go quietly into the night.

Smith put up career metrics in adjusted yards per attempt, interception rate, and passer rating while throwing for more yards, attempts, and touchdowns than ever before. Smith wouldn't have just been good for the Chiefs this year, but he would've been better than any other QB in the league this year per his passer rating. It's a reminder that Smith has had a complicated relationship with the NFL and the media, as the quarterback, arguably the best of this year and fourth best in fantasy, will spend his vacation wondering if he'll be traded or simply benched.

DeShaun Watson - Houston Texans

There's really only one more name on this list that could be considered a true breakout QB in 2017. He played in a handful of games, the team looked much better with him under center, and though he had some turnover problems, he's arguably one of the best quarterbacks for 2018.... and it's not Jimmy G, or Jimmy GQ, or Jimmy Franchise (I'll get to him later.) In reality, the numbers that Deshaun Watson put up in six games make nearly every other QB pale in comparison.

Through six games as the starter, Watson accounted for 19 touchdowns as a passer, with an additional two chipped in for rushing. Though obviously a much smaller sample size than nearly every other player in 2017 due to injury, Watson accounted for better yards for completion than anyone else in the league (13.5), touchdown percentage (9.3%), and would have held the highest passer rating than all QBs save for Alex Smith and Drew Brees. Watson may be due for a sophomore slump due to both the ACL issues and the obvious regression that comes with putting up stats like these, as well as a pretty high interception rate, but quietly the greatest young QB to be put on IR this year may not have been a Philadelphia Eagle.

Other Breakouts

A few assorted breakout names. Jimmy Garoppolo was better at real football than fantasy, helping the San Francisco 49ers go 5-0 without throwing a ton touchdowns and a few too many interceptions. Garoppolo dealt with a mostly injured team that didn't do a great job at protecting him or helping him out, so look for his real breakout season to be next year. I don't know if DeShone Kizer will be starting for the Cleveland Browns next year due to his turnover issues, but his second half suggests decent yardage and scoring potential, so while I wouldn't recommend drafting him if he does land a starting job next year, I'd monitor his performance in 2018 and act accordingly. And in the deepest of leagues, or 2 quarterback leagues, see if Josh McCown still gets to run the offense in New York next year. The improvements of guys like Robby Anderson could mean a McCown who sneaks into the top-12 of fantasy QBs.

More Year In Review Columns