Fantasy Basketball: Three Things I Like And Don't Like After Week 3

November 15, 2023

Alex Burns looks back at Week 3 of the NBA season and details 3 fantasy basketball trends he likes and doesn't like after a week's worth of games.

Life in the NBA moves fast. With multiple games occurring every night and so much data to digest, it can be tricky to stay on top of everything efficiently. And when it comes to fantasy hoops, being in the know is vital to your success.

Fortunately for you, that's where I come in. I'm proud to unleash a weekly column where I will look back on the previous week and share with you three things, or trends, that I love and three of them that I hate. The goal of this piece is to help you decipher between what's real and what's fake so you can make informed decisions when it comes to waiver wire add/drops, trades, and overall roster management.

Without further ado, let's dive right into this week's edition of my weekly column - Three Things I Like And Don't Like.

Three Things I LIKE

It's Almost Bilal Coulibaly Time

Ever since the calendar flipped to November, it appears Wes Unseld has remembered that Bilal Coulibaly is on his roster. He played the rookie sparingly across the first couple of weeks of the season but has bumped his playing time up to just over 27 minutes a night so far in November. While Coulibaly has played well in stints all season, his last two games are what should make us excited. He's played 33 and 34 minutes respectively and put up 15 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.5 steals in that span. This shouldn't come as a shocker, as we all saw what he's capable of during the preseason, but it's nice to see him get a shot. This is a noteworthy trend as both contests were close and all of Washington's wing players were healthy and active.

With the Wizards (obviously) tanking, it just makes sense to play Coulibably heavy minutes, and if this trend is here to stay, the rookie should be added in all 12-team+ formats moving forward. His offensive game is still raw, but his usage has been small enough to where it won't hurt you in category leagues. And I must say, after relentlessly urging managers to select him with one of their last picks in drafts, it's been nice for my psyche to witness a couple of good games from Coulibaly.

LaMelo Ball Found His Shot

The panic surrounding Ball's offensive start to the year was deafening over the first two weeks of the season. The assists and playmaking were there, but he was struggling mightily with his efficiency. For crying out loud, I had managers sliding into my DM's asking if they should trade away the guy they likely spent a late first-round pick on.

Oh, how the turntables (shoutout to Michael Scott). He's now averaging just under 30 points on 50% shooting over his last five games and with the playmaking, rebounding, and defensive stats still in place, he's providing the first-round that we expected back in draft season.

Let this be a fantasy basketball lesson before tilting on a player's performance again. It was theoretically impossible for him to continue shooting as poorly as he was. Regression, both positive and negative, should always be taken into consideration when analyzing fantasy basketball projections.

Skylar Mays Is Good At Basketball

With Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Malcolm Brogdon all banged up, the Blazers have had no choice but to turn to fourth-year guard Skylar Mays to run the show. And the guy has delivered. Mays averaged 16.5 points and 11.5 assists for the week and is seeing heavy minutes. This shouldn't come as a major surprise, as he balled out late in the season last year, averaging 15.3 points and 8.3 assists in a larger role. He's a bonafide must-add in all formats and should continue to provide value in assists and chip in enough scoring to make a difference. The Blazers play a back-to-back on Tuesday/Wednesday, so it would behoove you to get Mays into your lineups.

Three Things I Don't Like

The New-Look Clippers

Arguably the most important thing to watch in Week 3 was how James Harden would fit in with the Clippers and how that would impact the fantasy production for everyone involved. After one week, I'm not encouraged. First off, Harden is still finding his legs after missing the beginning of the season, so it's too early to panic. After a few games, I don't see how his presence will impact Kawhi Leonard positively. Kawhi has only averaged 18.7 points for the week while Paul George was able to put up a few good lines. While Leonard won't always be this invisible offensively, Harden's arrival has certainly stripped away some upside.

As for Russell Westbrook, he's seen his assists dip to 4.5 per game during this span after averaging 7.0 over the first five games of the season. It's clear that his and Harden's playstyle doesn't mesh well, so I believe it's only a matter of time before Ty Lue starts Terance Mann over Westbrook.

Sure, this is just a prediction, but aside from fantasy production, this new-look roster has yet to win one game. If you roster Leonard or Westbrook, you are holding, but we're not off to the hottest start.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Poor Play Continues

It's hard to imagine a worse start to the season for the Grizzlies but here we are. Record aside, Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to be extremely underwhelming from a fantasy perspective. He hasn't even recorded a multi-block game since November 3, which is primarily the reason he was a top-24 selection by most in drafts. The scoring has come and gone, albeit inefficiently, but he's been the 85th-best fantasy value over the last two weeks according to Basketball Monster.

History tells us that he'll regress to the mean, but it appears he thrives best with a big-bodied center down low (Steven Adams), which allows him to roam and create havoc defensively. It's not time to panic yet, but one would hope that Bismack Biyombo continues to serve as a reliable anchor down low.

 Jabari Smith Jr.'s Losing Playing Time?

Can we all collectively agree not to put too much emphasis on a player's performance in Summer League? I know, I can be guilty of this at times, but it's clear that it doesn't mean much when projecting numbers for the coming season. Case in point: Jabari Smith Jr. Many had him pegged as a fantasy breakout after his performance this summer, but through three weeks, he's just not doing much. He's ranked as the 146th value on Basketball Monster and I don't see a clear path for him to improve. To make matters worse, his minutes are seemingly declining. After averaging minutes in the mid-30s to start the year, he's seen no more than 26 minutes in each of the Rockets' last four games.

The worst part? The Rockets are winning. I'm not going to sit here and say their winning streak is a direct correlation to JSJ playing less, but clearly, Ime Udoka has found a rotation that he likes. Tari Eason's return from injury hasn't helped, but with a decrease in playing time and plenty of mouths to feed in Houston, Smith's usage has tapered off as of late. This is still a trend worth monitoring, but by no means is this encouraging for his fantasy prospects.

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