Fantasy Basketball: Three Things I Like And Don't Like After Week 1

October 30, 2023

Alex Burns looks back at Week 1 of the NBA season and details 3 fantasy basketball trends he likes and doesn't like after a week's worth of games.

Life in the NBA moves fast. With multiple games occurring every night and so much data to digest, it can be tricky to stay on top of everything efficiently. And when it comes to fantasy hoops, being in the know is vital to your success.

Fortunately for you, that's where I come in. I'm proud to unleash a weekly column where I will take a look back on the previous week and share with you three things, or trends, that I love and three of them that I hate. The goal of this piece is to help you decipher between what's real and what's fake so you can make informed decisions when it comes to waiver wire add/drops, trades, and overall roster management.

Without further ado, let's dive right into the first edition of my new weekly column - Three Things I Like And Don't Like.

Three Things I LIKE

Jalen Johnson Is Here To Stay

If you follow me on Twitter (or X), then you already know my affinity for Johnson. I urged managers to select him with one of their last picks in drafts and it was unequivocally the correct call after one week. Through three games, he's averaging 15.3 points 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, and 1.7 steals on 64% shooting but the playing time is what I'm here for. Despite coming off the bench for the first two games, he's seen at least 26 minutes in every game and just recently supplanted Saddiq Bey in the starting lineup on Sunday.

While some trends are fake and don't have season-long value, that isn't the case for Johnson here. It's clear that Quin Snyder is a fan of his game. So much so that Snyder has closed with Johnson down the stretch in two of their close contests. Miraculously, Johnson is still ONLY 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues, so you should drop what you are doing and go add him now.

Michael Porter Jr. Crashing The Glass

We all know MPJ is an elite shooter, but he's never been an elite rebounder. His 6.0 rebounds per game for his career are modest numbers for someone who stands 6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan. I don't know if something clicked this offseason, but Porter has been a giant on the glass through one week.

He's grabbed double-digit boards in two of three games and was well on his way to going 3-for-3 if a blowout win against the Thunder didn't limit his minutes. He's off to a slow start offensively but that shouldn't last long. And when he gets that going, it's going to couple nicely with the increase in rebounds. I had MPJ as a top 70 guy in drafts, but he'll smash that number if this kind of production sticks.

Tyrese Maxey Is Taking A Leap

I've loved many things throughout the first week of the season, but seeing Maxey dominate sits atop my list. After three games, he's averaging 30.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 50/56/91 shooting splits. As someone with many shares, I'm quite pleased, to say the least. As good as he's been, we can't ignore the two elephants in the room.

Tyrese Maxey so far this season

30.3 PPG
6.7 RPG
6.3 APG
68.8% TS

pic.twitter.com/jWlFSMm9lG

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) October 30, 2023

The first is James Harden's looming return. He rejoined the team on Sunday and was on the bench for their game against the Blazers. The second one is that shooting 56% from three is simply not sustainable. He'll still be a terrific fantasy option, but perhaps it would make sense to SELL HIGH before Harden's return to the lineup. If I were to trade Maxey, I'd be looking to get a top 15-20ish player in return. If someone is willing to pony up and offer that, I think it's a no-brainer. In no way, shape, or form do I believe holding Maxey is a bad move, but savvy managers can decipher through the noise and use his hot start to improve their team.

Three Things I Don't Like

The New York Knicks Backcourt Logjam

After signing Donte DiVincenzo in the offseason, I wondered how the Knicks' backcourt rotation would shake out. Through three games, it's clear that it's going to be a headache for fantasy. The grouping of DiVincenzo, Immanuel Quickley, Josh Hart, and Quentin Grimes have all averaged less than 25 minutes per game, as Tom Thibodeau opts to utilize them all throughout the game. As a result, this has capped the upside, and fantasy value, for all of them.

As it currently stands, Hart, Grimes, and DiVincenzo can all be dropped in standard leagues, while Quickley possesses the most upside of the group. Still, I'm afraid 23.7 minutes will not be enough for Quickley to return the fantasy value we had hoped for coming into the season. This is still a fluid situation worth monitoring, but it's likely going to take an injury, or two, for us to feel comfortable rostering any of these guys. The Knicks play three games this week, so it will be worth watching this trend to see if anything changes after one week.

Walker Kessler Has Been A Major Disappointment

Through three games, I'm starting to get a little worried about Kessler. Myself, and many other analysts, had him pegged as a bonafide top 55 guy in drafts due to his elite shot-blocking ability. Well, not only have the blocks not been there, but the minutes have dried up as well. Before losing our cool, we have to acknowledge that his playing time can and will be predicated on opposing teams' lineups.

What can the Jazz do to end Walker Kessler's sophomore slump? pic.twitter.com/6uPHT5aN2A

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) October 29, 2023

If they go small like the Clippers did on Saturday night, Kessler will likely cede minutes to Kelly Olynyk. But the overall lack of production is what has me concerned. He's only putting up 5.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 0.7 blocks through three games. He doesn't shoot threes and he doesn't shoot well from the line, so if he's not averaging at least two blocks a game, he's killing your fantasy team. If you roster Kessler, you simply have to hold. You can't trade him while his value is this low and dropping him without giving it some more time would be unwise. If I had to put money on it, I'd bet gets it together soon, but man, this is certainly cause for concern after one week.

Austin Reaves' Playing Time Is Interesting

I had Reaves ranked as a top 100 guy coming into the season, but he's been far from that through three games. He's only averaging 9.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 30/25/73 splits. His 1.3 steals have been solid and I do fully expect him to see some positive shooting regression soon, but his playing time is what has me a little worried.

He's seen only 29 minutes per game over the first week (one game with foul trouble) as Gabe Vincent continues to eat into the rotation (29.7). His usage is up to 20%, but it will be tough to build off of last year's numbers if his playing time stays the same. One could hope his lower minutes are due to his poor start, but we'll need to see him pick up his play if he wants to get to the mid-30s that the rest of the starters are seeing.

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