RADIO
The beginning of the regular season starting in March and that 'Thursday on-Friday off' schedule has made for a weird Friday schedule today. Just nine games are set to take place, with a few mid-afternoon first pitch times. Normally, we'd have a Wrigley game to get us through the afternoon and then a 14 game Main slate to work with - I suppose that will be back next week. Nonetheless, there are some strong pitchers on the bump today and it's going to make for a fun kickoff to the weekend.
Before we drop into player selection and analysis, let's take a look at Vegas figures that should be helpful in deciding our cash plays, our GPP stacks, which pitchers to roll with - and those to avoid, too. As of Friday morning, the teams with the loftiest run projections are as follows - Astros (5.5), Rockies (5.5), Blue Jays (5.5), Yankees (5.2) and the Rangers at 5.1. Of course, everything is relative in this DFS world, but I normally use 5.0 and above as the teams I'd hone in on for stacking - especially in cash games where we don't need to get cute or fret over ownership. On the flip side, teams like the Giants (3.7, Padres (3.1) and the Royals (3.0) all look like strong avoids.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/6/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLUCH.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Lance McCullers - SP, vs SDP ($8,500)
I love a good bargain on an elite strikeout pitcher. McCullers tailed off last season and ended the season on a cold streak, but he showed flashes of strikeout brilliance and a very high DFS ceiling. Tonight, he has the best offense backing him, he's a huge -280 moneyline favorite, and the Padres are currently just a fraction of a run (3.1) above the Royals (3.0) who own the lowest run projection for Friday's action. In his first start, McCullers was pretty fantastic, albeit in a relatively short outing. He struck out 10 Rangers in 5 1/3 innings and allowed just one free pass and four hits. I love the price point today, and the fact that he faces a San Diego team that doesn't strike too much fear in its opponents. Their projected lineup today has gone done via strikeout in 25% of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. I normally separate my cash and GPP options at pitcher, but he's too good to pass on in either format.
Also Consider: Carlos Carrasco - SP, vs KCR ($9,400); Kyle Hendricks - SP, at MIL ($8,200)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Max Stassi - C, vs SDP ($2,600)
He's a spot start catcher that has been filling nicely in a small sample so far this season, beating his price implied value in two of his three starts. If he gets the nod today, he's a good way to get exposure to the top offense on the board tonight in Houston. Dating back to last season, he has posted really strong splits - especially for a player in this price tier. His .378 wOBA offers a high floor, and the .231 ISO split is attractive as well.
Neil Walker - 1B, vs BAL ($2,900)
Attacking this position with a similar mindset as the catcher position and my Stassi selection - adding Neil to your roster gives you exposure to one of the top offense of the day and he's a super value considering that the game context and matchup. Walker posted a .378 wOBA split over the past year against right-handed pitching and the .207 ISO is quite attractive, too. Considering the fact the .207 ISO is more than .120 points higher than his mark against lefties, I am quite intrigued.
Zack Cozart - 2B, vs OAK ($3,400)
Outside of cash game plays like Cozart and Jose Altuve, there are a layer of attractive and cheap GPP options I'll get to in a minute. In cash, I would feel good about playing Cozart and, if roster construction allows, I'd like exposure to Altuve, too. Cozart is quite a bargain in comparison, and has good lineup context (projected leadoff hitter, team projected for 4.8 runs) and he had a bit of a power surge last season. He flexed a .231 ISO split against righties, and the .375 wOBA and low strikeout rate are big positives as well.
GPP Considerations for 2B: Rougned Odor - 2B, vs TOR ($2,400); Devon Travis - 2B, at TEX ($2,300)
Josh Donaldson - 3B, at TEX ($4,600)
Poor Matt Moore! Facing Donaldson when he's hot is pretty brutal and even worse when he's in a great park for right-handed power hitters. Moore allowed 1.5 HR/9 last season and pitching in Texas isn't going to help his cause in that respect. Donaldson is a lefty killer, and in the past 12 months his splits are in elite company - .411 wOBA and a .373 ISO. Oh, and one more thing - so far in 2018, he's posted a 55% hard hit rate and a 44% fly ball rate.
Corey Seager - SS, at SFG ($3,100) - RAINED OUT
Has he had a slow start? Sure. Is he a bargain, with a great matchup in a rivalry game that boasts power upside and good lineup context? Yes to all of the previous. Derek Holland is a great pitcher to pick on, and it represents a real strong opportunity for a breakout tonight. Seager's floor is incredibly high for a .401 wOBA split and while it's not an opportune park for home run hitting, there are a lot of gaps in San Francisco to launch extra base hits through.
Marcus Semien - SS, at LAA ($3,100)
With the news that LAD-SFG has been rained out, I am pivoting from to one of my favorite perpetually low owned studs, Marcus Semien. Conveniently, he's the exact same price and has a matchup I think he can exploit. Patrick Bridwell is going to be overmatched by a sneaky-strong Oakland lineup and the value in the leadoff spot that Semien brings is ultra valuable on this small slate.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
George Springer - OF, vs SDP ($4,300)
A price increase is something we want to observe (or at least be aware of) after a player has a rough outing or two, as that points to analysts "predicting" a good game. Springer wasn't a factor for the offense last night, but the matchup versus Luis Perdomo is one that favors him quite a bit. His .366 wOBA, .234 ISO and low strikeout rate against righties (18%) all bode well tonight, not to mention the fact that Houston has the highest run projection. Big time opportunity for a Springer dinger.
Curtis Granderson - OF, at TEX ($2,500)
Like the Astros, the Blue Jays have one of the biggest run projections and if Granderson is in the leadoff spot at this very low (and attractive price point), I'll be all in for tournaments. As I previously mentioned above, Moore is a pitcher to target and pick on, and while Granderson's split wont blow you away (.194 ISO, .400 slugging) the lineup and game context is strong and he'll allow us to pay up for big bats around him.
Shohei Ohtani - OF, vs OAK ($3,400)
After a disapointing Spring, Ohtani has made his presence felt over the past trio of games - crushing his DFS price implied value in the process. While he's still affordable and a bargain compared to the ceiling he represents, I'd like to fit him into my lineups today. It's a brilliant matchup for he and his teammates, and the run scoring and run-driving-in opportunities should be ever present tonight.
