FAAB Bidding - Week 16 Waiver Wire Targets

December 17, 2019

In fantasy football leagues that use FAAB (free agent acquisition budget), it can be hard to know how much money to spend on key players at QB, RB, WR, or TE. Nick Mariano gives fantasy owners his recommendations on how to spend FAAB for Week 16.

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be targeting to spend on a particular player. This changes in playoff weeks, where you simply do what you must and the amounts go up.

There is no "next week" for many of you, and if there is then please appeal to your commissioner to let Week 17 go like a deadbeat friend pushing their multilevel marketing scheme on you. Your goal is to optimize your starting lineup, that's it. No friendliest loss, no being a slave to site projections. Note your wallet $ and your opponent's waiver priorities, and act accordingly. To bring home the title, here are our FAAB auction bidding recommendations for Week 16 below.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

25% owned

Just as we all predicted at the season’s beginning, Ryan Fitzpatrick dialed up a top-eight QB performance in Week 15 to help guide us to the championship round. What? You didn’t read that everywhere?! Fitzmagic connected with Devante Parker for two TDs against the toothless Giants secondary, though he only completed 23-of-41 passes in the loss. He also chipped in 33 rushing yards, though he would lose a fumble as well. He has high-end QB2 appeal at home against Cincy in Week 16 for those seeking high ceiling and willing to risk low floor.

Drew Lock (QB, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

6% owned

Lock could get hot at the snowy Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, only completing 18-of-40 passes for 208 yards with one interception. Those conditions are tough for anyone, let alone a rookie making his third start. Lest we forget he topped 300 yards with three scores the previous week against Houston. Especially since he draws a soft Lions Defense that just gave up 450+ and four TDs to Jameis Winston and the backup receivers.

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

8% owned

Shockingly, Dalton flopped against a stout Patriots Defense that could pin its ears back throughout the second half. His four interceptions and measly 151 yards point to his not being the franchise’s future, but he may go out on a high note with fantasy owners thanks to a Miami matchup in Week 16. You know, the Dolphins team that has yielded an average top-three QB finish in 2019 even with a three-INT Brian Hoyer date in the mix. To be clear, I prefer Fitzpatrick, Lock, guys like Mitch Trubisky, but I’m trying to provide options and context here.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Deandre Washington (RB, OAK) - FAAB Bid: 50-60%

36% owned

According to Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs had trouble getting his shoulder pads off after Sunday’s game. Gruden grinder extraordinare, this franchise still has to protect its future and nobody awards points for grit. Washington may have been dropped in many leagues with news that Jacobs was playing -- this means you throw it in reverse, he’s relevant again. A starting RB needs to be owned, even if you won't play him then I wager it's wise to block your opponent from the option.

Mike Boone (RB, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%

3% owned

At this point, I don’t care how optimistic Dalvin Cook and company are about his health, you need to have Boone on the squad. How shocking that a shoulder injury would flare up in a game predicated on hard contact? With Alexander Mattison inactive, Boone stepped in to deliver 56 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. Minnesota gets Green Bay’s bottom-10 run defense in Week 16, making this as good a speculative grab as any.

Boston Scott (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 15-20%

8% owned

Scott cashed in a top-30 RB performance, chipping in behind Miles Sanders’ incredible day. He rushed six times for 26 yards -- solid -- and caught all seven of his targets for another 39 yards. That’s some swanky PPR action, and it makes sense given Philly’s nonexistent receiving corps. The Eagles face a must-win scenario against the Cowboys next week, and their newfound lightning rod should remain involved. Scott has played on 44% and 45% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks, he’s in play.

Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

0% owned

Gaskin split snaps with Patrick Laird, turning in nearly five yards per carry (9-43) alongside 29 receiving yards on two catches. It’s a noticeable jump after combining for 11 total carries in his previous four games and the 19-5 touch split with Laird in Week 14. The Laird memes are funny I suppose, but he hasn’t actually done anything to inspire confidence. Gaskin may be useful to 14-teamers in Week 16 against the Bengals.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Breshad Perriman (WR, TB) - FAAB Bid: 100%

11% owned

After posting a season-high 83% snap rate after Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury in Week 14, Perriman popped for 113 yards and three touchdowns on just five catches. Jameis Winston is making a case for a new contract in Tampa Bay with back-to-back games of over 450 passing yards, but no Evans, Chris Godwin, or even Scotty Miller for Week 16 means Perriman must be “the guy.” Ronald Jones II and Peyton Barber combined for an embarrassing 40 yards on 21 carries -- there’s no run game to bail Tampa out against Houston next week. Deshaun Watson will offer a shootout-style fight, you can almost guarantee it.

If Miller doesn’t return, then Justin Watson (6%) steps up. Even Ishmael Hyman (0%) becomes viable as the third receiver if Godwin and Miller can’t go. The Bucs signed Cecil Grayson off the Cowboys’ practice squad on Tuesday -- he’s a burner that could offer some downfield pop.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 60-70%

26% owned

Miller’s now topped 10 PPR points in five straight games, peaking with 140 yards and 118 yards in two of his last three games. He saw a season-high 15 targets in Week 15, giving him double-digit targets in three of Chicago’s last five contests going into a likely pass-happy gamescript against the Chiefs next Sunday night. Allen Robinson is still the No. 1 WR, but Miller has established himself as a WR3 heading into the finals.

Greg Ward (WR, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 40-50%

1% owned

Ward stepped up with seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown against Washington, providing Carson Wentz with a WR option who actually looked the part. JJ Arcega-Whiteside looked lost, while Ward supplied the game-winning TD. Even if Nelson Agholor comes back for Week 16 against Dallas, Ward has to have leapfrogged JJAW, who had zero catches. Robert Davis was the only other WR to get any snaps, at an unactionable 21%.

Chris Conley (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%

20% owned

Conley was a ghost throughout an ugly first half of football from Jacksonville, only to come alive with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. You’ve got to love that Raiders Defense. Conley hadn’t scored since Week 8, so we like seeing that red-zone attention. Week 16 against Atlanta should call for heaps of passing, as it seems Matt Ryan remembered to throw to Julio Jones more often. Conley is a low-end WR3 for me, settling near my top-35 for Week 16.

Danny Amendola (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 15-20%

25% owned

Amendola worked Tampa Bay’s fledgling secondary for 102 yards on eight catches, including a highlight 56-yard catch in between two defenders while drawing a DPI call. The eight receptions tie season-high marks set in Weeks 7 and 8, back when Matt Stafford was slinging it. Week 16 in Denver offers a markedly tougher test, but no Marvin Jones, a shaky run game and an unreliable defense may call for another 13-target game.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

O.J. Howard (TE, TB) - FAAB Bid: 12-15%

41% owned

Howard quietly drew eight targets from Jameis Winston against Detroit, but his 4-46-0 was drowned out by Breshad Perriman. Howard is most likely to be Tampa’s No. 2 “receiver” in Week 16 against Houston, where they’ll look to play spoiler. The Texans have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs in half-PPR, with Jonnu Smith going 5-60-0 last week and Noah Fant logging 113 yards and a score the week before.

Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 10-12%

13% owned

Speaking of Smith’s 60-yard receiving day, we didn’t even get to mention his 57-yard rush. It was his first 100-yard day and comes after he’d scored in Week 14 against Oakland. The Titans are jockeying for a Wild Card berth, but will need all hands on deck next week against Drew Brees and the Saints. With Smith drawing more attention from Ryan Tannehill than Corey Davis, he makes for a high-end TE2 in the championship week.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA) - FAAB Bid: 5-6%

31% owned

Gesicki’s eight targets made him one-of-seven TEs to see that much attention in Week 15. Even without stupendous results (four catches, 46 yards) that means we’re paying attention. Week 16 against the Bengals could be a quiet slugfest between two uninspired teams, but you’re playing for Gesicki’s volume here regardless.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs CAR) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

30% owned

I know, the Colts were just laughed out of the Superdome by a record-setting Drew Brees. But the Colts get to come home and likely face a rookie in Carolina’s Will Grier.  I’d anticipate a steady dose of Christian McCaffrey as Grier finds his footing, but the Colts’ stellar offensive line should massacre Carolina’s awful run defense and may put the Panthers in a hole. If Grier is forced to make throws, good things should come for the defense.

Denver Broncos Defense (vs DET) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

23% owned

The Broncos just held Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes-led offenses to under 24 points in back-to-back road games, which tells me they’re playing rather well and ready to feast on the rookie, David Blough. The Lions are missing a few key cogs and generally look disinterested in playing. Mix that with their traveling to mile-high air and I could see Denver picking them apart and making it four weeks in a row with three or more sacks.

Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs JAX) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

7% owned

Atlanta’s defense turned a corner after their Week 9 bye, and have since recorded 17 sacks with 12 turnovers and a touchdown over their last six games. For context, their first eight games yielded only seven sacks and three turnovers. A home game against a Jekyll-and-Hyde slinger such as Gardner Minshew should provide Atlanta with takeaway attempts, especially as the offense likely tilts the field against Jacksonville’s struggling defense.

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