RADIO
The Super Bowl matchup is officially set, which means that there are now 30 NFL teams beginning preparations for next season. It will be interesting to see what upcoming free agents are retained by their current organizations and which players will be finding a new home, and now is the perfect time to call your shot on how this will impact dynasty value.
Sure, you will have all offseason to trade and strategize for 2023, but why not get a head start and capitalize on some players' values before they fluctuate in the coming months? Plus, leagues with deadlines are likely opening trading back up now, so there could be some antsy managers in your league itching to trade.
Generally, players are valued differently on contending and rebuilding rosters, but I actually think all four of this week's suggestions can be applied regardless of your outlook for next year. As always, I'll identify players that I find to be a bit undervalued, and others that I would look to get a solid return for. Let's kick things off with the two I'm looking to acquire.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Much has been made of Diontae Johnson's 2022-2023 campaign, specifically how he managed zero touchdowns on 147 targets. If you had Johnson in any fantasy league this year, you were rightfully disappointed.
Only so much of the fault can be attributed to Johnson, though. The Steelers totaled just 12 passing touchdowns all season, with one coming from Chase Claypool before the wideout was traded to the Chicago Bears.
Although many believe the verdict is still out on Kenny Pickett as a franchise quarterback, it can only benefit him to operate as the de-facto QB1 for the entirety of training camp, as opposed to splitting reps with Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. Even if Pickett never puts up prolific numbers, it's reasonable to expect this offense to take a step forward.
To what extent Johnson turns around his bad touchdown luck remains to be seen, but what we can be sure of is his opportunities. He has proven to be a target hog regardless of who is under center, averaging over 153 looks per season since 2020.
If Diontae Johnson "sucks" why does every QB keep throwing him the ball?
- 3rd in targets/7th in target share among WR's in 2021 (with Big Ben at QB)
- 6th in targets/15th in target share among WR's in 2022 (with Trubisky/Pickett at QB)
He's not holding a gun to their heads.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 29, 2023
At just 26-years-old, Johnson is worth inquiring about for both contending and rebuilding rosters. He finished as the WR28 in PPR scoring this season and we have every reason to believe this is his absolute floor going forward. Give him four touchdowns and he's suddenly a firm fantasy WR2.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
After finishing two consecutive seasons as a low-end fantasy TE1, Mike Gesicki recorded just 32 receptions for 362 yards and five touchdowns in 17 games this year. There's no guarantee he ever becomes an every-week starter, but Gesicki's price in dynasty makes him well worth the risk.
On KeepTradeCut, Gesicki is valued as the TE23, below players such as Cade Otton and Jelani Woods. It shouldn't take much more than a third-round rookie draft pick to acquire him, at least for now. The 27-year-old is a pending free agent who seems destined to leave for a new home this offseason. His post following the Dolphins' Wild Card round exit reads mostly like a goodbye to the fans of Miami.
I didn’t even know I was making memories, I was just having fun. No telling what the future holds, just control what you can control. Everyone that knows me knows I would stay in South Florida forever, time will tell. No matter what and no matter where, the show goes on. . . 🤐 pic.twitter.com/uKWypwoMMu
— Mike Gesicki (@mikegesicki) January 18, 2023
As Gesicki pointed out, there's no telling what the future holds, but the writing has seemingly been on the wall for a while now. Gesicki entered the season as the subject of trade rumors and was never implemented as a focal point in Mike McDaniel's newly-installed offense.
The grass may not always be greener on the other side, but at least we know Gesicki has the talent and athletic profile to become a fantasy force in the right situation. Gesicki was drafted out of Penn State in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the second tight end off the board after only Hayden Hurst. His 4.54 second 40-yard dash time places him in the 95th percentile among tight ends, but perhaps the most impressive of Gesicki's metrics is his SPARQ score.
Nike's rating system assigns athletes a score based on their speed, power, agility, reaction, and quickness as adjusted for their weight. Gesicki has an insane score of 136.9, placing him in the 98th percentile at the position. For reference, Kyle Pitts, who was widely considered the best tight-end prospect of all time, recorded a SPARQ score of 120.9.
If Gesicki lands on a team that will utilize his abilities as a receiving threat, his price is sure to skyrocket. Trading for him at his current value ensures that it won't sting too badly if he signs somewhere uninspiring.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Fresh off a career season, Miles Sanders now finds himself competing for a Super Bowl in his fourth year as a pro. Sanders finished fifth in the league in regular-season rushing yards with 11 touchdowns en route to becoming the RB15 in PPR fantasy scoring. You're unlikely to get a haul for Sanders, but his trade value right now is arguably as high as it will ever be.
Sanders, like Gesicki, will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. It's certainly possible he returns to the Eagles, and that may seem like the best-case scenario with Philadelphia boasting one of the best offensive lines in football. In reality, Sanders has been ceding some volume to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott while losing goal-line work to Jalen Hurts. Gainwell may even be carving out a more significant role for himself going forward.
Kenneth Gainwell in two playoff games:
28 touches
195 yards
1 TDHe’s taken this run game another level.
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) January 30, 2023
Given that Sanders doesn't have much of a pass-catching role in Philadelphia, his floor is extremely low on a week-to-week basis. Sanders scored fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points in eight separate contests this season and finished as a top 12 fantasy running back just four times.
If he signs elsewhere, perhaps he is utilized as a receiver out of the backfield, but there aren't many teams in need of a three-down workhorse. In the event he is given this role, he's even less likely to be on a team with an offense as potent as the Eagles'.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It was a strange season for Mike Evans, who somehow managed to keep his streak of 1,000-yard seasons alive. This felt like a long shot between Weeks 9 and 16 when Evans averaged fewer than 50 receiving yards on four receptions per game. His Week 17 explosion salvaged an otherwise disappointing campaign, as Evans went off for 10 catches, 207 yards, and three touchdowns in his final game of the regular season.
There's no denying Evans' talent, but he has been considered a boom-or-bust fantasy option for much of his career. I'm concerned that his bust performances could come even more frequently next season with Tom Brady likely having played his last game in Tampa Bay.
#Bucs QB Tom Brady will take time away before making his decision, but based on final interactions, several #Bucs players believe he won’t be back in Tampa.
My story: https://t.co/oevz1tfzA2
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 21, 2023
Of course, Brady has made it known that he would've announced his decision had he made one already, but the 45-year-old was visibly frustrated for much of the season. If he retires or signs elsewhere, the Buccaneers will be left with a huge question mark at the quarterback position.
Kyle Trask was a second-round selection in the 2021 Draft but has hardly seen the field. Tampa Bay could look to draft another QB in April, but their options in free agency or the trade market will be limited given the team's cap situation.
Brady did not look like himself this year, but it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Buccaneers' passing attack improves next season. Evans' most realistic path to fantasy success may actually be through a trade, but that's not a gamble I'd love to take. Similar to Sanders, Evans isn't a player you'd be getting a king's ransom for, but he's exactly the type of asset I would like to add to a second-round rookie draft pick to move up into the first.
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