Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Dynasty Startup ADP Arbitrage - Patrick Mahomes vs Baker Mayfield

A couple of big hitters to look at today. Young, talented and to some, brash. Both have supreme confidence but show it in different ways. Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of the greatest seasons of all-time for a player at the quarterback position. 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns is perfection by almost every measure. With Tyreek Hill officially back, he has all of his weapons in tow and he could have another remarkable season in Kansas City as they try to win their first Super Bowl.

Baker Mayfield is not everyone’s cup of tea. But he is talented nonetheless. His 27 touchdowns in only 13 games beat the previous rookie record for touchdowns held by Peyton Manning. With Odell Beckham Jr. entering the lineup across from Jarvis Landry this offense is set to explode much like the Chiefs offense did last season. If another quarterback gets close to 50 touchdowns this season, Baker Mayfield has a chance to be the one to do it.

Both of these players come at a high cost in dynasty startup drafts. Mahomes is going in the third round while Baker Mayfield is not far behind in the sixth. If you are really gutsy and want to make people like JJ Zachariason angry, you could draft both of them. Realistically, you're going to have to choose which young QB to rely on for the years to come.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!


Pat Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

QB1 | Pick 2.12

The Golden Boy. The best thing since sliced bread. Say whatever you want about him, he was great last season. With weapons galore coming back, he looks to be here for the long haul.

With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the field along with the potential breakout of Damien Williams at running back, it is hard to point to someone else as the choice as QB1 this season.

The steep price is where you have to figure out your comfort level. Currently going as the last pick of the second round of dynasty drafts, you are giving up on a lot of value. Value which is better spent on more important positions such as wide receiver or running back. Immediately following Mahomes in ADP are Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen and Kerryon Johnson. All of these players are relatively young starters at their positions. All of these players also provide top-10 potential for fantasy owners. In a game where the difference a quarterback can make is not earth-shattering compared to hitting on a receiver or elite back, all of these players should be considered before taking Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes was far and away the best quarterback in 2018. Quarterbacks score more than other positions. But all quarterbacks on average score more than their counterparts at other positions. This means even the quarterback 2- will score more than the WR 20 or RB 20. So, whether you get the QB one or QB 20 you are making out points wise. This means going for the higher upside positional players makes a lot more sense than the elite quarterback.

If Mahomes drops to the fifth or sixth round? Grab him for sure. But at the price of a top 10 receiver or running back? Wait a while longer. Please.


Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

QB6 Pick 6.05

Unlike Patrick Mahomes, who can only regress off last season’s stats, Mayfield is going to improve on his. Not only did he only play in 13 games last season, he also has new weapons to use in the offense.

Odell Beckham Jr. joins the team as the WR1, replacing Jarvis Landry in the role. This not only gives Mayfield a higher-end WR1 than even Tyreek Hill is in Kansas City, it also gives him a better, more reliable WR2 in Cleveland. Sammy Watkins can be good. We have seen it in college. But he has failed to live up to his hype in the NFL due to lingering foot injuries. Listening to the Pat Fitzmaurice podcast this week, it was brought up that Sammy Watkins looks like a 32-year old receiver in the body of a 25-year old. This is true and it means he is not going to age well.

On the other hand, Jarvis Landry has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and even in a bad season for him last season, he still had 81 receptions for 976 yards. After four years in which he made the Pro Bowl and averaged 100 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards, this “down season” is still better than many number one or two receivers on other teams. Moving back to his preferred role in the slot, he will again find traction and get close to his career averages with the razor-accurate Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball.

Keeping Duke Johnson, at least until Kareem Hunt returns to the lineup is a big deal. In 2017, he was the RB12 in PPR leagues and with Nick Chubb not known as a pass-catcher, his ability in this area will be invaluable. He could have another top-20 fantasy season and perhaps make Kareem Hunt an afterthought.

All of these weapons and Baker Mayfield is a much better pick at his current price of the fifth pick of the sixth round than that of Patrick Mahomes. Whereas you would be passing up elite top-10 receivers like Diggs, Thielen and Allen for Mahomes the same cannot be said for Mayfield. Players going near him in ADP are a who's who of injury concerns and playing time battles. Players like Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Hunter Henry and Mark Ingram.



This seems simple. Pat Mahomes is going to regress. Baker Mayfield is going to progress. At the end of the season, the stats could be very similar in both camps. So, you have to ask yourself, if Mayfield and Mahomes finish back to back in the rankings, something which clearly could happen, would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Stefon Diggs, or Keenan Allen? Or would you rather have the potential QB1 or QB2 and Christian Kirk or Mark Ingram? The answer seems pretty clear.

More ADP Showdown Articles

More Recent Articles


Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 15

What a tremendous upset to kick off the fantasy playoffs (in most league formats)! The Chicago Bears pulled off a tremendous upset of the NFC East leading Dallas Cowboys last Thursday, with Mitch Trubisky throwing for three scores and David Montgomery getting 20 touches in the win. Most of Dallas' playmakers returned solid days, but... Read More

Show Me The Money! Stashes That Could Win Your League

Success in the fantasy playoffs is all about planning ahead. Your bench is no longer a safe space for high floor players without much of a ceiling; they won't win you the big game. You need to look ahead and stash players with exploitable matchups in the weeks to come so that you don't get... Read More

Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 14 Analysis

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. If you are preparing for Week 15 matchups, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which is designed... Read More

The King's Week 15 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find my Week 15 fantasy football lineup rankings for the second round of your playoffs. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR, and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions, especially on the weekends. Skill Position analysis versus... Read More

Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Kenny Golladay, Kenyan Drake, James White

If there was ever a week to have more booms than busts in your fantasy football lineup, it’s this week. The playoffs are either underway or about to start in fantasy football leagues across the nation and around the world. If you are lucky enough to be the proud owner of a playoff team, then... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is now expected to suit for Week 15. Adam Thielen (hamstring) is expected to return... Read More

Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids

Week 13 was a pretty chalky one with just three underdogs winning outright. The biggest upset was the Broncos absolutely annihilating the Houston Texans who were still celebrating their "Super Bowl" win against the Patriots the week prior. Three weeks remain and I'd be a fool to think there are hundreds who are reading this... Read More

The Tape Tells All - Robby Anderson Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson, who's shaken off a slow start to the 2019 season by going... Read More

Fantasy Football Risers, Fallers - Zach Ertz, Emmanuel Sanders, Robert Woods

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More

Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Sit Your Studs?

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More

Week 15 Warning Signs: Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Julio Jones

You made the playoffs. Awesome. Now you have even won your first game. That is even better. But now what? There are many players, some of whom performed in the first round, who may not be so fortunate this week. Whether it is a bad matchup or injuries to key players around them, this could... Read More

WR/TE Leaderboards After The First Playoff Round - NFL Next Gen Stats

Things finally got serious. If you're here, it's only because one of two reasons: 1) you have followed the series all along and want to keep reading just so you don't feel bad with yourself, or 2) you won your first round of the fantasy playoffs and are still on the lookout for the smallest... Read More

Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 15

The first week of the fantasy playoffs is in the books, and hopefully you're still writing another chapter in it. Week 14 was absolutely brutal from an injury perspective, with several big name players getting carted off the field and burying multitudes of fantasy teams in the process. Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, Devante Parker, Alshon... Read More