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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on April 30, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's matinee slate features an enticing nine-game mix. However, with inclement weather threatening several games around the league, checking in with your preferred meteorologist will be essential. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this ten-game slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/30/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. NYM ($10,900 DK, $11,800 FD)
Assuming rain doesn't interfere again, Strider will be an excellent play today. It's getting to the point where he is the top arm on pretty much any slate that he's available for. Strider is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, including an eight-inning, 13-strikeout performance against the Marlins earlier this week. He's yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any appearance this season, and Strider has managed a minimum of nine strikeouts each time out. He's floor and ceiling all in one.
Looking deeper at Strider's numbers, he's as dominant, if not more so than he was last season. He sports a 2.40 xERA, .266 xSLG, .175 xBA, .244 xwOBA, and 5.6% barrel rate through five starts. Those numbers highlight his status as an elite arm, but what sets Strider apart as a fantasy asset is the 42.6% strikeout rate, up from 38.3% in 2022. Strider's outstanding 40.1% whiff rate and 34% chase rate suggest the strikeout totals aren't going away any time soon.
Strider will square off against the New York Mets, who enter play in the midst of an offensive slump. They've scored just 18 total runs over their past six games en route to a 1-5 record. In total, the Mets carry a weak .386 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching, including a .138 ISO and 80 wRC. Despite the Mets' relatively low strikeout rate, this is a good opportunity for Strider.
Sonny Gray, MIN vs. KC ($10,400 DK, $11,500 FD)
Sonny Gray enters play with a staggering 0.62 ERA through his first five outings of the season. He has yet to allow more than one run in any appearance. Gray also put workload limitation concerns to rest with a seven-inning, 107-pitch performance against the Yankees last time out. Overall, he sports an impressive .331 xSLG, .270 xwOBA, .195 xBA, 31.2% whiff rate, and 29.3% strikeout rate.
Today's matchup with the Royals offers no reason to suspect Gray will lose steam. Kansas City carries a .585 OPS against right-handed pitching, the worst mark in the majors, including a .111 ISO, 51 wRC, and a 26.4% strikeout rate -- the highest in the majors. Gray has one fault in his game this season and it's his 9.5% walk rate. Fortunately, the Royals are only walking at a 5.6% rate, of course, the lowest in the majors.
Gray will be an expensive roster spot, but it's hard to imagine a more favorable combination of momentum and weak opponent.
Also consider: Drew Rasmussen, Chris Bassitt, Johan Oviedo
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Tylor Megill ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD)
Olson is a great pick regardless of who he's up against. He ranks near the top of all batters with a 95.2 MPH average exit velocity and 23.3% barrel rate, alongside a .511 xSLG, 46.7% hard-hit rate, 149 wRC+, and .362 xwOBA. That amounts to eight home runs and a .932 OPS.
Olson will take on Tylor Megill, who has noted struggles with left-handed hitters. Lefties are slugging .549 against Megill for his career, including .451 with a .390 wOBA this season. Olson generally hits everyone regardless of splits, so I'm confidently rostering him in this spot.
Joey Gallo – 1B/OF, MIN vs. Brady Singer ($4,400 DK, $3,500 FD)
I do believe Brady Singer is a better pitcher than we've seen for most of 2023, but something isn't working, and I'll exploit it in the meantime. Singer is getting crushed this season to the tune of a .573 xSLG, .392 xwOBA, 12.8% barrel rate, .317 xBA, and 22.5% whiff rate. Further, he ranked in the bottom percentile of all pitchers with a 94.8 MPH average exit velocity and 61.6% hard-hit rate. That's good news for Joey Gallo.
Gallo is playing out of his mind this season. He ranks in the top percentile among all hitters with a .790 xSLG, 77.4% hard-hit rate, 98 MPH average exit velocity, and 32.3% barrel rate. Gallo has a career-long problem with whiff rates, but Singer isn't missing any bats, so the stars are aligned here.
Mike Brosseau– 3B, MIL vs. Jose Suarez ($2,400 DK, $2,400 FD)
This is purely a splits-based pick. Right-handed hitters are slugging .773 against Suarez with seven home runs this season. He surrendered five home runs to the Athletics last time out. The Brewers are not particularly good against southpaw pitching, but Brosseau is their specialist. For his career, Brosseau slugs .478 with a .205 ISO against left-handed pitchers. He becomes a pinch-hit risk later in the game but usually bats near the top of the order and garners a reasonable share of at-bats for a near-minimum price.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Trout – OF, LAA vs. Colin Rea ($6,200 DK, $4,100 FD)
Trout is enjoying another great campaign, slashing .320/.408/.612 through 26 games. His numbers are fantastic across the board, sporting a 51.5% hard-hit rate, 92 MPH average exit velocity, 14.7% barrel rate, .524 xSLG, .395 xwOBA, and 164 wRC+.
Conversely, Colin Rea is simply not equipped for this matchup. The 32-year-old has surrendered a .462 xSLG, 52.2% hard-hit rate, 93 MPH average exit velocity, .367 xwOBA, and 5.77 xERA this season. For his career, right-handed hitters are slugging .467 against Rea. I'll favor Trout every time.
Josh Lowe – OF, TB vs. Mike Clevinger ($4,400 DK, $4,000 FD)
Lowe is experiencing a breakout season, featuring a .356/.397/.658 slash line, five home runs, and four stolen bases. Thanks to the strict platoon Tampa Bay employs, he's doing it almost exclusively off of right-handed pitchers, who he owns a .306 ISO against.
On the flip side, Mike Clevinger isn't himself these days. He sports a 5.50 xERA along with a career-worst 89.6 MPH average exit velocity. Clevinger isn't completely washed, but he also doesn't usually pitch deep into games, having only made it through six innings once out of five outings this season. That's where things get extra interesting. The White Sox have the second-highest bullpen ERA (6.59) in the majors. Look for Lowe or one of several other prolific Rays' hitters to take advantage.
Jack Suwinski – OF, PIT vs. Josiah Gray ($3,400 DK, $3,200 FD)
Suwinski is off to a torrid start season. He's smacked five home runs alongside some really impressive metrics, like a .630 xSLG, .434 xwOBA, 22.5% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate, and 92.3 MPH average exit velocity. He's a pinch-hit risk
Josiah Gray has kept bats relatively quiet this season, but the sample size is small enough. In 2022, Gray allowed 38 total home runs, including 22 home runs against left-handed hitters with a .598 slugging percentage and .415 wOBA. I'm not convinced Gray has overcome his trouble with the long ball.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Colin Rea
Rea is simply outclassed in this matchup. He's allowed a .462 xSLG, 52.2% hard-hit rate, 93 MPH average exit velocity, .367 xwOBA, and 5.77 xERA this season. It's nothing new, either. Rea has been up and down between the big leagues and the minors on and off since 2015. He's 32 years old with a 4.92 career ERA through 170 innings pitched.
Conversely, the Angels' lineup is full of lethal bats. They score 5.2 runs per game and are certainly capable of more on any given night. Rostering names like Trout and Ohtani is expensive, but it's a worthwhile endeavor. Premium prices should help limit the Angels' ownership, considering the pitching worth spending up for today.
Favorite Plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon
Minnesota Twins vs. Brady Singer
I highlighted Brady Singer's troubles above. He's getting hit about as hard as any pitcher in the league this season, ranking in the bottom percentile among all pitchers with a 94.8 MPH average exit velocity and a ridiculous 61.6% hard-hit rate. To make matters worse, Singer is not missing any bats, posting a 22.5% whiff rate. He's allowed five or more runs in three of his last four outings. Even looking beyond Singer, the Royals' 5.55 bullpen ERA is the fourth-worst in the majors.
The Twins aren't the scariest lineup in the league, but they carry many capable bats. Their main pieces don't carry excessively premium pricing, and there are discount options too, making Minnesota stacks reasonably accessible.
Favorite Plays: Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
Also Consider: Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays
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