Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Disaster Recovery Week 9: Mike Evans Lacks (Fitz)Magic


mike evans fantasy football dynasty analysis

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds.

This isn't a place to find out why you should have benched a player for somebody on your bench. Disaster Recovery is to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about benching, and deciding if you should be panicking at all about their value moving forward.

This season we'll be covering one dud per week. There will be two major qualifiers: the player must have performed well below expectations without an injury, and the player must be considered a must-start in most formats.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Rankings System

I'll also be implementing a new panic meter ranking system this year. It goes as follows:

  1. This week was a fluke. Don't panic!
  2. I still have full faith in this player, but there are some red flags. Be cautiously optimistic moving forward.
  3. There are genuine concerns here. Consider selling on name value, but don't panic too much unless you receive an offer you can't refuse.
  4. This player will not be the player you expected him to be. Regardless, his value may be too low to trade, and his ceiling is going to be better than anything you can get in return. Panic, but hold tight.
  5. Absolutely abandon ship. We're not coming back from this.

Week 9 saw the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick, which was expected to be a positive for the Tampa passing attack. For Mike Evans, it wasn't.

 

No, No, No, Fitzmagic!

Mike Evans' Week 9 stat-line: one reception for sixteen yards on ten targets. 

Connection Lost

The good news for Mike Evans was that he received double-digit targets. The bad news was that most of them weren't catchable.

It was a surprising day from Evans. In Fitzpatrick's three starts earlier in the season, Evans was averaging 122 yards and a touchdown per contest. The once-dynamic duo was not able to forge a connection in Fitzpatrick's return to action. The lack of Evans didn't phase him much, as Fitzpatrick completed 23 of 30 passes to non-Evans receivers.

Bradberry's Conquest

Some credit here should be given to Panthers cornerback James Bradberry. He spent his afternoon guarding one of the NFL's best receivers and shined doing so. Bradberry only allowed one catch from Evans and was responsible for two defended passes. It was a dominant performance by the third-year cornerback.

James Bradberry is not prime Darrelle Revis. He's a fine player, but he should not be able to completely remove one of the NFL's best receivers from the game. Bradberry allowed at least four receptions and 50 yards in every game since Week 1 this season entering Sunday. He did a respectable job on guys like Julio Jones and AJ Green, but he was shredded by Odell Beckham and allowed seven catches for 58 yards in a game where his primary coverage was Josh Doctson. There's no reason why a player like Bradberry should be able to remove Mike Evans from a football game.

 

Can We Trust Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Extreme Volatility 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been anything but consistent during his NFL career. There's a reason why he's played for seven teams in his career, and there's a reason why he was benched after a historic three-game start this year. Fitzpatrick's play will vary from game to game. Sometimes he'll look like Peyton Manning, and other times he'll look like Ryan Leaf. 2018 was the fifth time Fitzpatrick opened the season with three consecutive multi-touchdown games.

Let's take a look at 2012 as an example. Fitzpatrick opened the season with 12 touchdowns in his first four games. He followed it up by throwing for 12 more touchdowns, only it took him 12 games to do so. There's no predicting when you'll get a good Fitzpatrick game versus when you'll get a bad one. Even this year, he followed up three straight 400-yard, multi-touchdown games by getting benched at halftime against the Bears. Journeymen are typically journeymen because they don't give teams a good reason to invest in them long-term.

The good news for Evans is that Fitzpatrick has performed fine in four of his five starts this year. From a fantasy perspective, you can't complain about Fitzpatrick throwing four touchdowns this week. Carolina made it a point to remove Tampa's outside receivers from the game. This opened things up for Adam Humphries and OJ Howard to score two touchdowns. While Howard will likely remain a factor and a red zone thief in Tampa, Humphries won't. Evans still led Tampa in targets in his worst game of the year.

Panic Meter: 1.5/5

I'm not going to sit here and act like we should have any thought of fading Mike Evans after one bad game. He's currently a top 10 receiver in all formats. Given where he was being drafted this year, there's no reason to complain about owning Evans, and there's definitely no reason to consider trading him unless the offer is too good to pass up.

Evans is on pace to surpass his career high in receiving yards. Even with OJ Howard and Chris Godwin becoming Tampa's favorite targets in the red zone, Evans is still on pace for eight touchdowns.

Tampa Bay will continue to throw the ball a lot. The passing attack will go as far as Ryan Fitzpatrick takes them. Some days, he'll take them to the moon. Other days, he'll take them to the deepest depths of the ocean. Evans will find a huge amount of targets in both of these scenarios. Going one for ten on targets is something that rarely happens in today's NFL. I can't imagine it happening again. Evans will continue to see a whole lot of work moving forward, and he should be able to make the most of it. Don't panic.

What To Watch For

Fitzpatrick to reform his magical connection with Evans. The duo dominated defenses early in the year. This game should be an anomaly on an otherwise stellar season for Evans. If it isn't, we may be back in this column with a different tune next week.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More


Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 James Conner is expected to make his return this week. Devante Parker (concussion) is good to go for... Read More


Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More


Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More


Drew Lock: Is He Ready For Fantasy Football Playoff Consideration?

There is much excitement in Denver after Drew Lock put on an air display at Houston last week. In just his second NFL start, the rookie threw for 309 yards and three TD passes, all in the first half, as the Broncos stunned the AFC South leaders, 38-24. The final score doesn’t indicate what type... Read More


Survive and Advance: The King's Guide to Fantasy Football Playoff Sanity and Success

As the playoffs progress in the NFL every season, media coverage ramps up. By the time we get to Super Bowl week, it's become a full-blown circus. There are microphones and recorders being shoved in players' faces at every waking moment, and the questions never stop. As the fantasy football playoffs move ahead, there is... Read More


Red Zone Usage Risers and Fallers - Week 15

We are at a crucial point in the season. Hopefully, your team is still alive, but there is always an opportunity to get your team in shape before that final push! As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a... Read More


QB vs Pass Rush Matchups To Watch - Week 15

Week 15 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are rolling. Some head into the fantasy semifinals as big favorites but others are scrapping to keep their season alive. Real teams start at quarterback, and the position is pretty important for fantasy as well. Quarterbacks have changed the game for fantasy football this year with guys... Read More


Inside the Tent - Week 15 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system.   NFL Matchup Ratings - Weekly Lineup Projections FLEX RB WR TE QB DEF K ** click column headers to sort table Player... Read More