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Justin Dunbar breaks down New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley's recent slump in production and explains why the RB may be struggling.
A major storyline this season was the return of New York Giants star running back Saquon Barkley. Infamously selected with the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, Barkley has been perceived as a generational talent since he was at Penn State. I mean, how many players can carry a fringe first-round average draft position (according to Fantasy Data) after missing most of the previous season with a torn ACL and MCL?
Yet, that's where we were with Barkley. Coming off of the injury, the 24-year-old was expected to start out slow, but the expectation by his supporters was that he'd eventually be a league-winning running back being discounted due to the injury.
That, unfortunately, has not happened. Barkley, who has missed extra time due to injury, is only the RB41 currently and is outside the top-30 in fantasy points/game. In other words, it's safe to say he's been a disappointment based on his average draft position. With that in mind, it makes sense to look into why Barkley is struggling. Is it his own doing, a fault of the team, or something else? Moreover, how does this affect his outlook moving forward in both redraft and dynasty? We'll answer all of that here!
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Barkley's Struggles
After averaging 4.83 yards/carry over the first two years of his career, Barkley had established himself as one of the most efficient backs in the NFL. That hasn't been the case this year, however. Currently, he is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and hasn't rushed for 60 yards in a single game. That, given his overall talent, is quite surprising.
Some of this falls on Barkley. His 64.3 PFF rushing grade ranks 47th at the position, while his 2.89 yards after contact/carry is the lowest of his career. However, it is safe to say the circumstances aren't great either. The Giants are Pro Football Focus' ninth-worst run-blocking unit, while the offense ranks just 28th in points/game (17.6). Especially with quarterback Daniel Jones out of the lineup, defenses can key in on the RB, and his support isn't great. In other words, he's not doing his part, but the situation isn't helping him flourish.
Then, there is Barkley's receiving production, which has been even more disappointing. His 49.3 PFF receiving grade ranks 60th of 65 qualified running backs, while he's averaging barely over a yard per route run. The good news? A good portion of this is due to his 11.8% drop rate, which is double what it was previously. We can expect positive regression there over time, which will be key in PPR formats. He's still not the same weapon after the catch (7.3 yards after catch/reception), but he should see improvement in the receiving game over time.
Not Being Used Properly?
When you think of Barkley, do you think of a big-play threat or a between-the-tackles plodder? Considering he ranks in the 99th percentile in speed score, according to Player Profiler, I hope it's the former.
That's how Barkley was used for his first two years, as seen by his zone-rushing percentage by year:
- 2018: 67.4% Zone
- 2019: 55.76% Zone
- 2020: 47.81% Zone
Notice the consistent decline in the amount of zone rush attempts he's getting, which aligns with a decrease in his efficiency. Barkley is no longer being used as a home-run threat, and it's clearly having an effect on his overall effectiveness.
According to Pro Football Focus, 42% of Barkley's carries have come out the middle. That is precisely how he should not be used. New York's interior offensive line, Will Hernandez, Matt Skura, and Billy Price, all rate out as below-average run-blockers. For perspective, only 26.4% and 31.8% of his carries came up the middle in 2019 and 2020, respectively. It's time for him to be used on the edge again. If not, this offense has little chance of any explosiveness, and Barkley's rushing numbers will continue to suffer.
Barkley's Elite Utilization
Despite all of this, Barkley remains a player that needs to be in your lineup on a weekly basis.
Why? His elite utilization. Per Dwain McFarland of Pro Football Focus, here are usage numbers over the past two weeks:
- Week 12: 87% snaps, 54% rush attempts, 72% routes, 17% targets
- Week 13: 75% snaps, 65% rush attempts, 71% routes, 24% targets
Barkley is also being targeted on 21% of his routes this season; this is what we call elite usage. Thus, he's able to accumulate volume statistics; he has 20 targets over his past three games, and 32 carries over his past two games. This is why we continue to have faith in Barkley moving forward. When you have such an elite talent being used like this, a blow-up game is coming. The question is, when is it?
Overview
So, should we maintain faith in Barkley?
With a favorable matchup against the Chargers this week, I could see Barkley being a top-10 back. However, for the rest of the season, he's going to be much closer to a RB2. A change to offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens could spark different utilization, but thus far, he's continued to be hammered up the middle on his carries, hurting his efficiency. Remember, it's not like he has much touchdown upside playing for an ineffective offense.
I fully trust Barkley's talent, even after the injury. In my opinion, this is a case of being in a position to fail, which is precisely what is happening. This offseason will be a great time to buy-low on him in dynasty formats, while he should be someone you look to target at a discounted price in redraft formats in 2022. A new offense next season should mean much better things for Barkley, which will come at the relief of all of us. I, for one, can say that I prefer when the game's premium talents are utilized to their strengths, and that isn't happening currently with Barkley. With that, all we can do is hope for better days ahead in 2022 and the years beyond that.
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