Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Daily Divide - Week 15 DFS picks


Daily Divide: Week 15

Nathan and Matt each offer Week 15 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make sound decisions for their DFS lineups.

Nathan:It is good to have Matt back in the fold. hopefully his takes upon his return will be flaming hot and accurate.

You can follow Nathan Powell on twitter: @NPowell -- and recent birthday boy Matt Rittle on twitter @ffrittle. Matt: Thanks again to @FFAaroneous for filling in last week. Nathan and I disagree plenty this week, so let's dive into it. 

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Fifteen

QB: Carson Palmer at PHI
When you get a matchup of arguably best wide receiver corp in the NFL against the secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers and 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, it is a good idea to play the quarterback from the opposing team. This game projects as a shootout with an O/U of 51, tied for the highest of the week, with a team total of 27 for the Cardinals. Palmer has a safe floor with at least 20 fantasy points in each game this season. When I can get that kind of production in a plus matchup without paying exorbitant prices, I'm going to do it every time.

Stacking: John Brown is my favorite stacking option with Palmer this week for pricing purposes, but Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are also in play.

Matt: One of the league’s best passing offenses versus one of the league’s worst passing defenses. (For what it's worth, I prefer Floyd as a stack.)

RB: Theo Riddick at NO
I’ll admit that this is more of a contrarian option with many people going Denard Robinson for their cheap RB, or paying up a little more for David Johnson and many people also like Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate against the Saints, but my favorite way to get exposure to the game tied with Arizona/Philadelphia for the highest O/U at 51 is with Theo Riddick. Riddick has sneakily been the RB20 on the season while never really coming close to that price in DFS all season long. Riddick provides some nice lineup flexibility to go with a play that most won't be on, I like Riddick a lot this weekend. .

Matt: Riddick makes a bit of a “I want to prioritize other positions, but not entirely lose out at RB” style play. I admit I can’t really argue against this one, though I’m not sure I’ll be using him myself.

WR: Jeremy Maclin at BAL
Jeremy Maclin cooled off a bit last week with a 12 point PPR outing after a pair of 30+ PPR point games. I expect him and the Chiefs offense to heat back up this week against that terrible Baltimore secondary. Travis Kelce hasn't been getting as many targets as fans hoped, and Jeremy Maclin has been fed targets consistently with 9+ targets in 7 of 12 games and 30 targets in his last 3 games. The Chiefs are 7 point favorites with a team total of 24, I expect Maclin and the Chiefs offense to exploit the plus matchup early and often this weekend and I think Maclin has the highest upside of the mid tier wide receivers in DFS this week.

Stacking: Alex Smith is a nice floor play this week, but not sure I see the ceiling that I do with either Russell Wilson or Carson Palmer.

Matt: In other slates, I could really see turning to Alex Smith this weekend, though the elite QB matchups this weekend seem to make that moot. With Maclin, I’ll be honest...I’m never sure what to “mac of lin” (groan). He seems so hot and cold, and I’ve been completely unable to predict the timing of either. The targets and matchup are absolutely there, though, so as with my Riddick response, I can’t argue against this one.

TE: Jacob Tamme vs JAC
With Gronk still a questionable play, I am going back to the cheap tight end well this week with Jacob Tamme. Tamme has been getting consistent targets as the #2 option at WR/TE in the Falcons offense with 5 or more targets in 7 of his last 9 games, while that isn't the highest threshold in the world, Tamme doesn't need much more than that to live up to his price and I expect the Falcons to get Tamme more involved against a Jaguars defense that has surrendered the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season.

Stacking: Matt Ryan has been all sorts of terrible this season. He isn't a stacking option even against the Jaguars defense.

Matt: Tamme’s targets have been less consistent of late than previously thought. He’s probably as fine a cheaper TE play as you’ll see this weekend, but I’m a touch nervous about his floor in cash games..

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Fifteen

QB: Russell Wilson vs CLE
After a season full of cheap quarterback success in DFS, this is seemingly a week to pick on the top-end QBs heavily, each with great matchups. Nathaniel wrote up Carson Palmer already, and I’ll name-drop Cam Newton (a real and fake MVP candidate) and Tom Brady (in the middle of a fantastic season, with the highest team total of the weekend). For my selection, though, I’ll opt to ride one of the hottest offenses and players of the last month, Russell Wilson. After throwing for only one touchdown in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has caught fire, throwing for three or more touchdowns in each of his last four games (and five touchdowns twice). He hasn’t finished lower than QB3 over that span, and has two finishes as the weekend’s top QB. Playing at home against a Cleveland unit that figures to be outclassed on both sides of the ball (SEA favored by double digits), Wilson should be able to put in plenty of work. There may be a slight blowout concern here, but Wilson should get his numbers in regardless.

Stacking: If Wilson keeps rolling, Tyler Lockett makes a “sneaky” stacking option, but may fall just outside the cash game conversation. Doug Baldwin has been the biggest beneficiary of this hot streak, and figures to have a solid floor and ceiling at this point.

Nathan: It is pretty "Dangerruss" to fade Russell Wilson at this point(okay that was terrible). I'd worry a little about how the offense moves without any sort of running threat, but this is at home against Cleveland so Wilson should be able to do just about whatever he wants.

Matt: The fact I want to slowclap you for “Dangerruss” is probably why we get along so well.

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs DEN
In games where he has played over 80% of the snaps, DeAngelo Williams has been fantastic this season. In seven such games he has finished as a top 5 RB four times, with his other finishes coming as RB10, RB31, and RB20. I don’t love the matchup against the tough Denver defensive unit, but after some consideration I have warmed up to DeAngelo Williams, and there are a few things going for him. This game takes place in Pittsburgh, not in Denver With Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, the Pittsburgh offense has been one 2015’s best units, a different scenario than an elite defense facing a mediocre offense. Vegas would seem to agree with all this, placing the PIT team team total at a respectable 24.5. I’d also note that Denver is slightly softer against the run than the pass. I nearly wrote up David Johnson in this space, as the Eagles love giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs almost as much as opposing QBs, and I think the two are more or less equal. In the end, though, I decided to stick with one of the best DFS RBs of the seasons.

Nathan: DeAngelo has been really good all season long, but against a tough Broncos defense, I'm fading the entire Steelers offense for DFS purposes.

WR: A.J. Green at SFO
It’s been an interesting year for A.J. Green, piling up numbers in good games, which has somewhat hid the number of average games he has had this year. He seems to have turned the inevitable corner, though, coming off back to back 100+ yard games, and riding a three game touchdown streak into Week 15. This increased consistency is supported in his seasonal numbers, as he was WR14 in PPR before his Week 6 bye, and averaging WR8 numbers since. The quarterback play isn’t stellar, and the secondary matchup is fairly neutral, but that’s where the negatives end for me. With Tyler Eifert questionable already ruled out, and Marvin Jones with a minus matchup, Green figures to be force fed targets this weekend. I try to give intellectual credit where I can, so I’d like to thank Chris Raybon from 4for4 who (may have been) the one who raised our awareness of A.J Green home/road splits. Even without his other positives this weekend, I would still arrive at the inevitable DFS conclusion: Death, taxes, and A.J. Green on the road.

Stacking: A.J. Green figures to have a nice game almost in spite of questionable quarterback play. Not trying to stack here.

Nathan: I know the AJ/AJ stack connected for a score last week and AJ Green on the road is money in the bank, but when I'm paying up for an elite receiver, I prefer the quarterback to have more than a few quarters of NFL experience.

TE: Greg Olsen at NYG
I don’t love a lot of tight ends this weekend. There are some cheaper ones that intrigue, but seem more suited for tourney plays than cash games. Daily Divide favorites Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker (are always in play, but) both face fairly bad matchups. So I arrive at the prospect of paying up for Greg Olsen this weekend. After an injury scare last weekend, he seems to be good to go this weekend for a tilt against a matchup that ranges from highly plus to elite, depending on which site you check. I won’t belabor this play, as it’s fairly obvious. Solid TE + very nice matchup + targets from MVP candidate QB + bad TE slate == here we are. .

Stacking: Cam Newton is always in play, and makes a terrific option this weekend, stacking or not.

Nathan: Olsen has been limited in practice which is really the only thing stopping me from playing him everywhere. Olsen will be doing Olsen things once again this weekend.
Matt: Wanted to end the column with a shout-out to #NarrativeStreet favorite this week: Antonio Gates. A long time favorite of myself, and many others, Gates is openly talking about wanting to play well in what may be his last home game in San Diego. Gates has been a long-standing favorite tight end of mine, and I'm not close to alone on that. We wish Gates and QB Phillip Rivers well this weekend, regardless of where they play next year.

Nathan: *plugs in Ladarius Green as my tight end write up for 2016 Week 1 DFS when Gates walks in free agency or retires*

Matt: Way to enjoy the moment in front of us Nathan.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Russell Wilson, David Johnson, Denard Robinson, Calvin Johnson, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller

Aaron likes: Every top QB mentioned above, Matthew Stafford, David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Alshon Jeffery, Eric Decker (Saturday night), Allen Robinson, Antonio Gates

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

 




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Conference Championships Matchups Analysis

Welcome to our NFL Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering both of the AFC and NFC contests from the Sunday slate, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries... Read More


Conference Championships Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Dynasty Players to Sell in 2020

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano share their top sell candidates for dynasty football leagues in the 2020 fantasy football preseason. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More


Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More