January 20, 2018

Fantasy football lineup starts/sits for the NFL playoffs and the Conference Championships. In-depth matchups analysis, start 'em or sit 'em, and players we love or hate.

While the fantasy season is over for most leagues, there's still plenty to play for. Whether you are in a playoff league or are just trying to win the milly maker on DraftKings, we've got you covered with the best and worst matchups.

This week's matchup analysis will help answer all your start/sit lineup questions for the Championship Round and provide some DFS advice too.

I'll be on Reddit to answer all your start/sit questions as well. You can also reach me directly on Twitter @ChrisMangano if you can't wait. 

Conference Championship Game Notes

Important note and credits about data used in this article:

• All snap counts taken from Football Outsiders. Adjusted line yards also taken from Football outsiders. You can read more here.
• Success rate is taken from Sharp Football Stats (Warren Sharp). You can read more about it here.
• Wide receiver snap percentages and corner grades/stats are taken from Pro Football Focus.

Conference Championship Matchups

Jaguars at Patriots

Matchups We Love:

Blake Bortles (QB, JAC)

Bortles has now posted back-to-back 16 point games on DraftKings, and gets a Patriots defense that gave up 7.3 yards per attempt (25th) and 24 touchdowns (tied 18th). They allowed the seventh most points to quarterbacks on the season as well. Bortles comes in priced at just $5000, third highest but a steep discount from the top two. He makes a great salary saving option in cash or tournaments.

T.J. Yeldon (RB, JAC)

Yeldon saw plenty of work against the Steelers as Chris Ivory was not active and Fournette left the game briefly after re-aggravating his ankle injury. Even if Fournette is able to stay healthy, Yeldon has plenty of appeal against a Patriots defense that gave up the sixth most points to running backs through the air. Yeldon had three targets against the Steelers, third most on the team, and could see even more if the Jaguars are unable to run the ball. Priced at $4200 on DraftKings, Yeldon comes in as one of the cheapest running backs and is a great tournament option for players looking to save money at the position.

Allen Hurns (WR, JAC)

Hurns only saw two targets agianst the Steelers outstanding slot corner Mike Mitchell, but could be in line for more work against Eric Rowe who allowed over two PPR points per target on the year. If the Jaguars are going to throw more, it will likely be with underneath throws and that could benefit Hurns. Priced at just $3300, Hurns is an interesting tournament play who should see very little ownership but offers real upside in this one.

Matchups We Hate:

James O'Shaughnessy (TE, JAC) / Bryan Koyack (TE, JAC)

O'Shaughnessy and Koyak combined for just three targets and two catches in the Divisional Round win, and will likely be hardly involved once again as they face a Patriots defense that ranked 13th in points allowed to the position and gave up just five touchdowns all year. Both come in minimum priced on DraftKings but are not worth a start in your lineup.

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

Brady is by far the best quarterback left in the Championship round, but he draws the one of the toughest matchups against a Jaguars defense that gave up only six yards per attempt (tied first) and 17 touchdowns (tied third). They gave up the fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks on the year as well. Ben Roethlisberger did just torch them for 496 yards and five touchdowns, and brady is an elite player, but priced as the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings at $7700 he is a tournament play only.

Brandin Cooks (WR, NE) / Chris Hogan (WR, NE)

Cooks and Hogan are likely going to spend their share of time each facing off against the Jaguars stud corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. On the season, Ramsey and Bouye allowed three touchdowns and just 1.16 PPR points per target. Cooks comes in as the third highest priced receiver at $6100 while Hogan is fifth at $5000. Neither can be trusted for more than a tournament contrarian play, however.

Danny Amendola (WR, NE)

Amendola led the Patriots with 13 targets in the Divisional Round against the Titans soft slot corners, but he'll have a much tougher matchup this week against Aaron Colvin. Colvin didn't allow a touchdown all year and gave up just 1.28 PPR points per target. Amendola is the fourth highest priced receiver of the slate at $5500 and is a tournament play only.

Other Matchups:

Leonard Fournette (RB, JAC) is coming off a monster game in the Divisional Round, and gets a good matchup against a Patriots defense that allowed 4.7 yards per attempt (tied 30th) but only six rushing touchdowns (second). The concern here is that the Patriots focus their attention on stopping the run like they did against Derrick Henry and the Titans, who they held to just 2.3 yards per carry. Still, Fournette is priced at $7200 and isn't even the most expensive running back on the slate, and offers the safest option of all backs this week.

Marqise Lee (WR, JAC) led the team with six targets in the Divisional Round as Bortles only attempted 26 passes. Lee appears to be fully healthy once again and back to the team's lead receiver, but draws a bit of a tough matchup against Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore. On the year Gilmore only allowed three touchdowns but did give up 1.65 PPR points per target. Priced at $4400, Lee is the highest priced Jaguars receiver but still comes at quite a discount. While we wouldn't trust him in cash games he has some tournament appeal in a game the Jaguars may need to throw more in. Dede Westbrook (WR, JAC) had just three targets against the Steelers, but does draw the slightly "better" matchup against the Patriots other outside corner Malcolm Butler. Butler allowed six touchdowns this year and 1.77 PPR points per target. Westbrook is priced at $3900 but is a contrarian tournament play only.

Dion Lewis (RB, NE) continued his great play in the Divisional Round and now has at least 23 DraftKings points in three straight games. There are some concerns this week, however, as the Jaguars run defense has been much improved lately, holding LeSean McCoy and Le'Veon Bell to just 142 combined yards on 35 carries. There is also the return of Rex Burkhead (RB, NE) who should eat into Lewis' usage, especially in the passing game where Lewis really shined against the Titans. In the last three healthy games both Burkhead, James White (RB, NE) and Lewis all played, Lewis had just 35 carries and seven targets, while Burkhead had 30 carries and 11 targets and White had just eight carries but 12 targets. Lewis should still operate as the lead back and has the most upside of this backfield, but priced at $8100 and the most expensive player of the slate is a tough price to pay in a crowded backfield. Burkhead, meanwhile, comes in priced at $5400 and offers some sneaky appeal as the Patriots may choose to pick the Jaguars apart with their short passing game. He is a risk in cash game formats but is a fine tournament start. White is the least expensive of the three at $4900 but may see high ownership after his big game against the Titans. He is a tournament play only.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) had nine targets in the teams win over the Titans, and figures to be a big part of the game plan as the Patriots try to attack this elite secondary. The Jaguars were tough on tight ends, ranking 10th in points allowed, but Gronkowski is good enough to overcome whatever the Jaguars can throw at him. Priced at $7900 and the second highest player on the slate, this is a week where paying up for him is likely worth it.

Vikings at Eagles

Matchups We Love:

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) / Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)

Surprisingly it was Thielen, not Diggs, who drew shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore in the teams Divisonal Round victory over the Saints. Even with the tough matchup he was still able to haul in six catches for 74 yards on nine targets, and we have all seen what Diggs did by now. Neither will face anyone near as tough as Lattimore in this matchup as the Eagles corners allowed 16 touchdowns and 1.59 PPR points per target. It should be noted that Thielen has been playing far less out of the slot than he did at the beginning of the season but it shouldn't matter as the matchup is fine either way. Thielen and Diggs are the highest priced receivers of the slate at $7400 and $6900 respectively, and for good reason. Both are excellent starts in any format.

Matchups We Hate:

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Murray only ran for 50 yards against a below average Saints run defense, but was able to find the end zone. Things will be much tougher this week as the Eagles allowed just 3.8 yards per attempt (tied sixth) and only seven total rushing touchdowns (tied third). Murray is always a threat to score as Vikings rely on him near the goal line, but priced at $5700 on DraftKings he comes with considerable risk in this matchup. He is a tournament play only but we'd prefer to avoid him this week.

Nick Foles (QB, PHI)

Foles has only topped 10 DraftKings points once in his three starts with the Eagles and will struggle to make it a fourth against a Vikings defense that gave up just six yards per attempt (tied first) and allowed the fewest passing touchdowns, 13. Not surprisingly, Foles is the least expensive quarterback of the slate at $4000 but doesn't warrant consideration in such a tough matchup.

Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI), LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI), Corey Clement (RB, PHI)

In the Divisional Round, Ajayi looked like the Eagles best back totaling 54 yards on 15 carries and adding another three catches for 44 yards on five targets. Blount, meanwhile, carried the ball nine times for just 19 yards but did fall into a touchdown, while Clement saw just one carry for five yards but did add five catches for 31 yards on five targets. It's hard to trust any of these backs this week, however, as the Vikings allowed just 3.7 yards per attempt (fifth) and gave up the third fewest points to running backs through the air. Ajayi comes in priced at $5200, while Blount is $3700 and Clement is $3100. For one of them to pay off they'll likely need to find the end zone in this one and none can be trusted outside of tournament contrarian plays.

Alshon Jefferey (WR, PHI)

Jeffrey was one of four players to see a team high five targets in the Divisional Round, but Foles may look his way less often as he gets matched up against stud corner Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes only allowed two touchdowns all year and just 1.34 PPR points per target. Jeffrey does come in at a steep discount, priced at just $4600, and there is a chance the Eagles will move him around enough to get chances away from Rhodes. Still, he is a risky start and can only be played in tournaments.

Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI)

Agholor saw only three targets in the team's win over the Falcons, and could once again be a secondary option as he faces the Vikings slot corners that allowed just one touchdown and 1.21 PPR points per target. Agholor is priced at $4800 and is nothing more than a tournament dart throw.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)

Ertz was targeted just five times in the Divisional Round as Nick Foles spread the ball around to eight different players. While he may need to lean on Ertz more this week with Jeffrey and Agholor drawing tough matchups, Ertz himself could struggle to find room against a Vikings defense that ranked first in points allowed to the position and only allowed three touchdowns. Ertz is the second highest priced tight end on the slate, but is still a steep discount to Gronkowski at $5300, though we would prefer to fade Ertz this week if possible.

Other Matchups: 

Case Keenum (QB, MIN) threw for 318 yards and one touchdown against a good Saints defense, and gets another test this week against an Eagles defense that gave up just 6.5 yards per attempt (tied third) but did allow 24 touchdowns (tied 18th). On the season they ranked 10th in points allowed to quarterbacks. Keenum is the second highest priced quarterback on the slate at $6600. He is a solid start in cash games but may lack the upside for tournament play.

With the Vikings likely to struggle on the ground, Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN) could see extra work in the passing game. Coming off a four target game, McKinnon offers some appeal against an Eagles defense that gave up 91 catches and five touchdowns to running backs through the air. Priced at $5100 on DraftKings, McKinnon is our preferred Vikings running back but should be limited to tournament play only.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) was targeted eight times in the Divisional Round, catching five passes for 58 yards. He should once again be heavily involved as he gets an Eagles defense that ranked 15th in points allowed to the position. Rudolph is always a threat to score, and priced at $4500 he is a nice discount to Gronkowski for those who want to fade the chalk.

More Conference Championships Lineup Prep