Champ or Chump: Nacho Alvarez and Edouard Julien Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

July 23, 2024

Are recent call-ups Nacho Alvarez (Braves) and Edouard Julien (Twins) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

Injuries are unavoidable in professional sports, and fantasy managers are accustomed to scrambling for a replacement when a major player goes down. If there's a bright side, injuries often open up opportunities for intriguing players.

For instance, Ozzie Albies is expected to miss at least eight weeks with a wrist injury. The Braves are calling up their No. 5 prospect, 21-year-old Ignacio Alvarez, to fill in at second base. Similarly, Edouard Julien is getting another shot at regular playing time with Carlos Correa on the IL for Minnesota.

What do these players offer for fantasy managers? Let's find out!

Nacho Alvarez (SS, ATL) 4% Rostered

First things first: Alvarez goes by several different names. His real name is Ignacio, and he's sometimes listed as Ignacio Alvarez. Furthermore, some platforms list him as Nacho Alvarez Jr. or Ignacio Alvarez Jr.

Alvarez has some prospect pedigree, ranking fifth in Atlanta's system per both FanGraphs and MLB.com but not cracking the overall top 100 on either site. Here are his scouting reports:

Alvarez projects for a plus hit tool and could become an adequate fielder, but there's little power or speed for fantasy purposes. He wouldn't be exciting if these scouting reports told the whole story, but they don't. Alvarez's calling card is outstanding plate discipline, and his MiLB performance hints at a high baseball IQ.

Alvarez got his first extended taste of professional baseball at High-A (Rome) in 2023, slashing .284/.395/.391 with seven homers and 16 steals in 501 PAs. His advanced approach at the plate produced a 13.2% BB% and 17.4% K%, which would be incredible even if he wasn't 20 years old. Alvarez's 7.4% SwStr% supports his surface-level plate discipline, suggesting it's a real skill.

On the downside, Alvarez offered little power. His OBP exceeded his slugging percentage, and his 33.7% FB% was too low to hope for much pop. Furthermore, his 6.3% HR/FB suggests a swing change to add loft wouldn't accomplish much.

Alvarez isn't a fast runner, but he stole 16 bags in 21 attempts for a success rate of 76%. That might translate to a few steals at the highest level despite his lack of speed.

The Braves sent Alvarez to Double-A (Mississippi) to begin 2024, and he hit .265/.381/.312 with no homers and 16 steals in 202 PAs. His peripherals were largely the same. Alvarez's plate discipline was excellent with a 14.4% BB% and 18.8% K% backed by a 7.0% SwStr%. His 29.5% FB% wouldn't produce much power even if his HR/FB was greater than zero. He was only caught stealing once for a success rate of 94%.

The Braves decided he was ready for Triple-A (Gwinnett), and Alvarez proved them right with a .336/.432/.575 line with seven homers and five steals across 132 PAs. His 23.3% HR/FB was almost certainly the result of the hitter-happy Triple-A, and his 33% FB% was still fairly low. His .360 BABIP probably isn't sustainable, but Alvarez projects as a plus BABIP guy due to his low flyball profile.

Alvarez's plate discipline was intact against more advanced competition with a 12.9% BB% and 15.2% K% backed by a 5.3% SwStr% and 24.7% chase rate. He also went 5-for-7 on SB attempts for a success rate of 71%. Alvarez was young for the level, so any level of success is impressive.

Alvarez is expected to hit toward the bottom of Atlanta's lineup, but he projects as a perfect leadoff guy. Jarred Kelenic is currently the team's leadoff man, and he lacks an established track record and his .301 OBP isn't ideal in the role. If Alvarez usurps him, he would gain considerable OBP, batting average, and run upside.

Some may see Whit Merrifield's signing as an obstacle to Alvarez receiving regular playing time, but he's only hitting .199/.277/.295. He's hardly a must-start, and he'll probably see time in Atlanta's short-handed outfield rather than compete with Alvarez at 2B. Similarly, Albies' return is two months away in a best-case scenario, and Alvarez could slide over to shortstop if he's outhitting the struggling Orlando Arcia.

If you need power, Alvarez isn't for you. He probably won't steal a ton of bases either. However, he should have the plate discipline to help in OBP formats and he offers batting average and run upside. If you wish you rostered Spencer Horwitz, Alvarez is a Champ.

Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) 20% Rostered

Julien had a disappointing start to the year, hitting only .208/.315/.364 with seven homers and six steals over 200 PAs as a Twin. The Twins sent him back to Triple-A (St. Paul), where he hit .233/.400/.380 with five homers and four steals in 165 PAs.

Julien has mastered the minor leagues, so he probably won't learn anything more on the farm. We explored Julien's MiLB exploits in this column last year. Here, we're going to look at two indicators suggesting Julien could be primed for a big second half.

First, strikeouts have been a huge issue. Julien's 33.5% K% is awful, and his 29.3% K% at Triple-A isn't much better. However, Julien doesn't deserve all of these strikeouts.

His 10.6% SwStr% is better than the league average, and he seldom chases out of the zone with a 17% chase rate. Julien has a 13% BB% despite his struggles, so he hasn't lost his elite eye. His 36.7% Swing% is probably a little too passive, but this isn't a profile that should be striking out a third of the time. Fewer strikeouts should boost his average and OBP moving forward.

Second, Julien's contact quality has improved compared to 2023. His average airborne exit velocity is up a tick and a half from 94.3 mph to 95.8 mph. Better yet, his FB% has increased from 23.9% in 2023 to 36.8% this year. Julien has a 0% IFFB% both years, so all of his flies have a chance to do damage. His rate of Brls/BBE is down slightly (11.3% vs. 13.1%), but hitting more flies harder should improve his barrel rate.

Julien hasn't been good this year, but all of the pieces are here for a tremendous fantasy asset. His plate discipline is excellent, his power is improving, and he's a perfect 10-for-10 on SB attempts this year between the majors and minors. Julien is a Champ for any roster searching for upside.

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