Buy or Sell: Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 17

July 21, 2019

Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 17. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

Undervalued Players - Week 17

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

Brandon Workman - RP, BOS

47% owned

A few weeks back, when news broke regarding Nathan Eovaldi and his eventual return, the plan seemed to be to have him shift to closing. Today, Red Sox manager stated that Brandon Workman is their closer until further notice. He mentioned how his bullpen's roles have become more defined over the past few weeks. Workman, to his credit, is having the best season of his career and is deserving of this honor.

His 1.84 ERA, 35 percent strikeout rate and .103 average against are stellar. However, there is a regression coming. A .171 BABIP and 17 percent walk rate are staring him in the face and will strike at an unfortunate time for anyone who picks him up. Nevertheless, he is the closer on the Boston Red Sox (even if only temporarily). Workman is still available in most leagues and is worthy of a roster spot.

Khris Davis - OF, OAK

93% owned

There is no one player in baseball more consistent than Khris Davis. A .247 average and 40-plus home runs are a main-stay with Oakland's power-righty. Davis started the year off on fire but has since cooled down significantly. Unfortunate hip and hand injuries have stunted this season's progress, but it is not too late for a turnaround.

There are still two months of baseball to play. Davis is talented enough to make up the gap between his current performance and his expected performance. His xBA and xSLG are below his current marks and should regress soon.

Clint Frazier - OF, NYY

11% owned

Clint Frazier remains a trade chip for the Yankees with the deadline swiftly approaching. If moved, he will likely have everyday playtime and an OF spot locked up for the first time in his career. The removed pressures of performing for short stints in the MLB could really ease Frazier and allow him to play his game. He is a former top prospect who has had a stellar season at the plate this year.

Despite several noted defensive lapses, his bat is good enough to play in almost any other lineup. Frazier produced a .283 average, 11 home runs, and .348 wOBA in 209 plate appearances this season with the Yankees. He will become a must-own player on most any other team if traded this month.

Travis Shaw - 2B, MIL

17% owned

Travis Shaw is back to being Travis Shaw...in Triple-A. Since his most recent demotion, Shaw is batting .295, with five home runs, 13 walks, and just 12 strikeouts. Albeit in a small sample (14 games), it is good to see that he is seemingly back from the wrist injury that hampered the first half of his 2019. The biggest issue in a path back towards MLB play-time is a crowded infield. Keston Hiura seems to have taken a stranglehold on the second base job that Shaw formerly held and Mike Moustakas is not moving from the hot corner.

All that is left is first base realistically and that is where things get interesting. Jesus Aguilar has had a turbulent 2019 as well and could be a candidate to get pushed out in favor of Shaw. With the trade deadline approaching, things should shake out in favor of Shaw somehow. He may even be traded (although unlikely). He's definitely more preferable for OBP leagues than others due to his elite walk rate.

Overvalued Players - Week 17

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.

Yuli Gurriel - IF, HOU

82% owned

Not many major leaguers have been hotter than Yuli Gurriel over the past month. Honestly, "hot" might even be an understatement. Gurriel is demolishing the ball and rewarding anyone who picked him up/spiting those who dropped him. It's as if someone finally let him in on the balls being juiced. Regardless, he is not this good. Any player can get hot, Gurriel's streak is just lasting a little longer than normal, essentially making up for his early-season power-outage. His xSLG is nearly ten percentage points lower than his actual slugging percentage.

Gurriel is mostly valuable in points leagues and should remain so throughout the season due to his incredibly low strikeout rate. Owners in categories leagues might be disappointed with his ROS performance. There remains a possibility that he loses PT if/when Kyle Tucker comes up. I'd look to sell high, probably adding Gurriel in as a trade sweetener for a bigger piece.

Luke Jackson - RP, ATL

79% owned

Luke Jackson is an interesting fellow. Despite several shaky closing opportunities, he has managed to hold onto the closer role since earning it in late-April. With seven blown saves, there is a chance that Atlanta looks to the trade market for a steadier option. With the replacement risk, it is likely best to move off of Jackson if possible. His most recent blown save likely doesn't help his fantasy trade value, but there may be an owner in your league who sees the 17 saves and is desperate enough.

Jackson has incredible peripherals and holds a great 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The problems are his inflated WHIP and HR/FB rate which indicates that nearly a quarter!! of his flyballs leave the stadium.

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