Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - New York Jets 2023 Outlook

August 5, 2023

Craig Rondinone's fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, busts, and safe picks on the Jets. A 2023 fantasy football offensive preview for the New York Jets.

The expectations are higher than a skyscraper for the New York Jets now that Aaron Rodgers will be the one running the offense. No longer will we see the conglomerate of injury-prone, interception-prone, and over-the-hill quarterbacks the team has trucked out the last couple of years.

Rodgers should elevate the fantasy values of everyone around him, and the supporting cast is not as mediocre as you might think. A lot of skilled position players on the roster had their fantasy values stunted by the haphazard heaves of Zach Wilson and the other subpar passers who led the offense.

So who will be the breakout, the bust, and the lock for fantasy football on the New York Jets in 2023? Here is my take!

Breakout – Tyler Conklin, TE

Tyler Conklin signed for $20.5 million with the Jets last offseason to join forces with fellow free agent C.J. Uzomah and become a powerhouse tight end tandem. While Uzomah concentrated more on blocking, Conklin had himself a solid season with 58 receptions for 552 yards and three touchdowns, almost identical numbers to what he posted in 2021 with the Minnesota Vikings. Still, he was nothing more than a TE2 for fantasy managers, as he could only do so much with the scattershot signal-callers throwing dying quails in his direction.

Fantasy footballers know Rodgers can get a little something extra out of the tight ends he throws to. Look no further than the slow-footed Robert Tonyan, who shocked the fantasy world when he hauled in 11 touchdowns from Rodgers on his way to a career year in 2020. The upgrade from Wilson to Rodgers can only help lift Conklin’s fantasy worth like a new CEO can lift the stock of a flailing company.

There is no doubt that Conklin can set new career highs across the board and put up 65 catches for 700 yards and five touchdowns now that the passing attack has the proper general under center. Conklin could even be better, though, and have a breakout season that makes him a top-12 fantasy tight end in 2023. He might not reach the end zone as often as Tonyan did a couple of years ago, but Conklin should provide plenty of bang for your buck this year, especially in PPR leagues.

Bust – Allen Lazard, WR

Listen, I like Allen Lazard as a football player. He is a big target with a nose for the end zone (14 TD over the past two seasons) who can outmuscle cornerbacks for 50-50 passes. Lazard is also a decent run blocker and a veteran leader who can help guide top target Garrett Wilson and lead him to the next level. This is why the Jets shelled out multi-millions for him in the offseason. For fantasy purposes, though, Lazard has never been more than average. He might be below average in 2023.

Lazard has never had 65 receptions or 800 receiving yards in a season, and these were during four full seasons when Rodgers was his quarterback. Now, Lazard is on a team where he has to fight for targets with Wilson, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, and Conklin being part of the pass-catcher rotation. Lazard has an advantage over a couple of those guys because of his history with Rodgers, but how is he going to get more than six targets per game with this many mouths to feed spirals to?

Some might figure that Lazard could get 800-900 yards and eight touchdowns this year. I am not one of them. He has never had that type of season before, and he was part of a much more shallow receiving corps than he is a part of now. Lazard might help Rodgers and the Jets with the AFC East, but he is not going to win fantasy titles for anybody who drafts him.

Lock – Garrett Wilson, WR

Garrett Wilson was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and racked up 83 receptions for 1,103 yards while having the terrible trio of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco throwing him the ball. Oh, and fourth-string Tim Tebow wannabe Chris Streveler was Wilson’s QB for a few plays, too! Wilson was also routinely double-covered because teammates Corey Davis and Elijah Moore were constantly ineffective, injured, or benched. Yet, Wilson was still able to have a super season in his first year in the league.

Wilson will only be better in his sophomore season. He has future Hall of Famer Rodgers as his quarterback instead of a first-round flameout or an inconsistent journeyman. It is hard to find a top-flight fantasy receiver who has been blessed with a better upgrade at quarterback heading into the 2023 campaign. I am sure there will be Jets fans and fantasy fans falling in love with the Rodgers-Wilson bromance as it blossoms on "Hard Knocks."

A fantasy player of average intelligence can surmise that if Wilson was able to post a 1,100-yard year with quarterbacks that are barely better than XFL quality, he should be able to pile up 1,300-1,400 yards and between eight and 10 touchdowns with Rodgers.

Do not worry about Rodgers’ old running mates Lazard and Randall Cobb taking his targets. Wilson is far and away the most talented receiver on the roster, and Rodgers will feed him the ball like diner chefs feed Guy Fieri. Look for Wilson to be a top-10 fantasy WR this year and give his managers everything they expected when they drafted him.

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