2024 NFL Draft - Brandon Murchison's First-Round NFL Mock Draft

April 24, 2024

Brandon presents his final first-round mock of the 2024 NFL Draft. He dives into the fantasy football implications of the offensive skill position players selected and discusses their dynasty and season-long potential.

In the realm of fantasy football, anticipation and strategy reach a fever pitch as the NFL Draft approaches. Every selection, every pick holds the potential to reshape not only the fortunes of real-life franchises but also the fantasy landscape for millions of enthusiasts. As the curtain rises on this year's first-round NFL Mock Draft, fantasy managers everywhere eagerly await to see which prospects will find themselves in ideal situations to flourish in the fantasy realm.

The draft is a pivotal moment where dreams are realized for both players and fantasy managers alike. From powerhouse quarterbacks to electrifying wide receivers and dynamic running backs, every position offers its own allure and intrigue. With each pick, fantasy owners scrutinize not only the talent of the player but also the ecosystem they'll be stepping into -- the offensive line quality, quarterback situation, and coaching staff all come under the microscope as fantasy managers aim to find the next breakout star or cornerstone for their team.

As the clock ticks down and teams make their selections, the ripple effects are felt across fantasy drafts worldwide. Will a rookie quarterback find himself leading a high-octane offense? Will the deep and talented wide receiver class prove to be among the best we have seen in recent years? The possibilities are endless, and as the first round unfolds, fantasy managers eagerly assess each pick, analyzing the potential fantasy impact and envisioning the future successes that lie ahead for their virtual squads.

Brandon's 2024 First-Round NFL Mock Draft

Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears (1.01)

The 2024 NFL Draft gets started with the consensus overall top pick as the Chicago Bears go with Caleb Williams as their franchise quarterback going forward. Williams thrived in Lincoln Riley's offense over the last three seasons, showing off the elite arm talent and body control that some evaluators have used to tab him as the best prospect at the position that we have seen in a decade. He has all the tools that you could want while searching for a potential franchise signal-caller. His ability to process on all levels of the field and turn off-script plays into big gains is unrivaled in this class.

Landing with the Chicago Bears will test his abilities to the fullest as when we think fantasy greatness, the Bears QB is typically not one that comes to mind. A historical stat that I will continue to point out is that the Bears have NEVER had a quarterback exceed 4,000 yards passing during a season. Most of this has to do with the team's DNA has always been geared toward a strong running game and defense.

With DJ Moore and newly acquired Keenan Allen in place, Williams will have playmakers at his disposal to work the ball down the field. But from a fantasy perspective, I will be skeptical of Williams' potential to provide QB1 upside in the short term. He is a surefire first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts but may not become a consistent option for fantasy managers early on in his career. 

Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders (1.02)

The second pick in the draft could be where things get truly interesting. Many people do not have a great grasp on the selection of the Commanders, with three different quarterbacks in play. But during my time in Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine, I came away with a strong feeling that the team was confident in the selection of Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels. He is a vastly different player from Caleb Williams, or even the other two rumored quarterbacks at this spot (Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy). Daniels brings more mobility to his game, which lends itself to a safer floor from a fantasy production standpoint.

The reason for the confidence in the landing spot with the Commanders (for me) is that he is the better fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. The spread offense employed by Kingsbury can allow Daniels to better read coverages by the defense or even create off-script plays in which he can utilize his unrivaled speed.

Similar to Anthony Richardson, he has an upright running style that leads to taking big hits and could keep him off the field at times. From a fantasy perspective, Daniels presents a higher upside than Williams due to his rushing potential. He will also be a first-rounder in dynasty drafts and could find an avenue to being a QB1 in points per game scoring as early as his rookie season. 

Drake Maye - QB, New England Patriots (1.03)

The quarterback run continues as many are expecting with the New England Patriots staying put and selecting North Carolina QB Drake Maye. There have been rumors suggesting the Patriots would be willing to move down in the draft, but in recent days, those reports have changed to the team sticking with the third pick. 

In Maye, the team brings in a former four-star quarterback with prototypical size and an explosive arm. He has more agility than he gets credit for, but the strength of his game is his ability to move the ball down the field. This can also be a detriment as well due to his tendency to play "hero ball" and force throws that he should not be making.

Landing with the Patriots will be viewed as a terrible spot by most in the fantasy community due to the lack of weapons they currently have at the wide receiver position. The learning curve for Maye will be expected to be picked up sooner rather than later, but one positive that can be viewed here is that the team has the flexibility to allow him to sit and not start right away while Jacoby Brissett starts the 2024 season.

But once he is under center, he must prove himself right away, but unfortunately, he may not have the talent or offensive creativity from the play-callers that will lead to fantasy success. I currently have Maye as a fringe second-round pick in dynasty drafts and his script reads as a player that may always be a mid-to-low-end QB2 in fantasy leagues. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Arizona Cardinals (1.04)

The first non-QB comes off the board at the fourth pick with the Cardinals taking stud wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. He is one of the most prolific receivers that we have seen enter the NFL in recent years. From a scouting perspective, he is as complete as they come with outstanding versatility in his game with his release off the line of scrimmage and route running chops. 

This tall, lean target can be utilized in any position on the field, and he will win against most defenders. His outstanding catch radius and concentration will allow him to not only be a threat deep in routes but over the middle as well.

With the Cardinals, the obvious need at wide receiver puts Harrison Jr. in a position to be counted on and targeted as the top wide receiver on the depth chart as soon as he steps on the field. He will use his dominant receiving traits, athletic talent, and route-savviness to emerge as one of the premier receivers in fantasy football. With Kyler Murray under center, Harrison has the advantage of a veteran QB to work with to acclimate to the system early in camp. 

Also, with the emerging Trey McBride, the Cardinals will have the ability to open up the field to avoid double coverage on Harrison Jr. As of now, he is the consensus 1.01 of dynasty drafts and this landing spot will not change that fact. If he can become the target earner that he was at Ohio State, you have a player who could become a WR1 in fantasy PPG during his rookie season. 

J.J. McCarthy - QB, Minnesota Vikings (1.05)

The highly debated QB out of Michigan has been the talk of the fantasy community since the end of the college season. Some believe his upside should have him in the discussion as the potential QB2 in this draft class, if not the top pick at the position. That is why the rumored pick for much of the offseason has had the Minnesota Vikings doing everything they can to land McCarthy in this draft after the departure of Kirk Cousins. Coming from a pro-style offense, he could be the readiest prospect to step in and start Week 1.

He is quick to process what he sees from the defense and can deliver a ball with velocity and accuracy from different platforms. His decision-making can come into question at times, something that may get him into trouble early on in his career, but simply put, he is a winner. Even though there will be bumps in his path coming into the NFL, he has the tools and makeup to be inserted as a starting quarterback early in his rookie season if the team chooses to do so.

The landing spot with the Vikings could become a dream for fantasy managers if his upside hits as many are expecting. The offensive supporting cast is there, and it is excellent with wideouts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Once T.J. Hockenson returns to health from injury, there's a case to be made that McCarthy will have a situation in which he cannot fail.

With QB guru Kevin O'Connell at HC, he could see a seamless transition to the league as the team accentuates the positives in his game. I currently have McCarthy as an early third-round pick in dynasty drafts, mostly due to the depth of talent at the top of the board. But there is an avenue in which McCarthy could provide high-end QB2 value during his rookie season before becoming a consistent QB1 for fantasy managers in Minnesota. 

Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants (1.06)

There has much discussion during the offseason on just how close you could consider Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. from an evaluation standpoint. While missing out on the early run at QB, the New York Giants make the obvious selection in bringing in a true WR1 in hopes of improving their unimpressive group of wideouts.

Nabers could be classified as the true definition of "separatist" with his uncanny ability to accelerate while changing directions, even in the short area. Even though he presents just average size for the position in the NFL (6-foot-0, 199 pounds), he plays bigger with the ball in his hands (30 missed tackles forced in 2023, WR4). If he can polish off some nuances to his route- running ability, Nabers could become a threat in the NFL quickly.

Even with all of his greatness, Nabers will be stuck on a team with major question marks at the quarterback position. The secret is out that the Giants are ready to move on from Daniel Jones, but with Drew Lock as the backup, the options are quite thin in looking for improvement and hope for Nabers' upside early on. This current QB conundrum for the Giants will likely stifle Nabers in his rookie season from a fantasy perspective. 

But if the team can solidify its position sooner rather than later, Nabers could be unlocked as a massive weapon for fantasy managers. Currently, he is thought to be the 1.02 in dynasty drafts and this should continue to be the case after this next weekend. The upside and athletic traits alone show Nabers to be a playmaking WR1 in fantasy for many years to come. 

Rome Odunze - WR, New York Jets (1.08)

Rounding out the trifecta of stud receivers at the top of this draft class, I have the New York Jets making the move to get ahead of the Chicago Bears for Washington's Rome Odunze. He is a receiver who checks all the boxes that a team is hoping to see in the position. His height, weight, and arm length give him the flexibility to play all three receiver positions. His ability to play physically at the line of scrimmage allows for separation in the short-to-intermediate range.

But he can also be a problem down the field, as evident by his 23 deep catches for 783 yards in 2023, both leading the nation at the position. His superb hands and large catch radius are also on constant display as he never shies away from contact, leading the country in contested catches a season ago (21). Odunze is an amazing prospect who can be used as a matchup nightmare with the right offensive play-caller.

The two teams that have been linked to Odunze the most, the Bears and Jets, picking back-to-back to round out the top 10 in the draft could lead to some maneuvering on the board. Ultimately, I have the Jets making this move to take Odunze and pair him with another young stud receiver in Garrett Wilson. Although the team did bring in Mike Williams in free agency, there are questions about just how much he will be able to offer due to his age and comeback from the torn ACL. 

In the interim, Odunze will be fighting for targets in an offense that has been funneled through Wilson for the last two years. This will put a ceiling on his fantasy potential early on and you will also have to account for the Jets' direction at quarterback following the departure of Aaron Rodgers upon his retirement.

So, in short, even though the skill set does put him in the same tier as Harrison Jr. and Nabers, this landing spot could be viewed as a downer for dynasty managers. He's still likely to be taken as the 1.03 in dynasty rookie drafts, but there will have to be some patience applied to his true value early on in his career. 

Brock Bowers - TE, Los Angeles Chargers (1.11)

Brock Bowers has been talked about as being the next great tight end in the NFL for several years now. He has been as consistent as they come since the day he stepped foot on campus at Georgia. If you look to find any negatives in his game, it can only be considered nitpicking as he is essentially elite in every aspect. He is the prototypical size for this new generation of tight end, as he maintains power and athleticism within his frame. His flexibility to be able to play in line as well as in the slot for mismatch potential is an offensive coordinator's dream.

Although he may not be the most explosive player at the position, he can build up speed better than anyone, leading to separation down the field. He has some of the best contact balance that we have ever seen, which makes him a missed tackle nightmare (18 in 2023, TE2). Bowers should be viewed as an exceptional chess piece for an offense that will potentially become an All-Pro for many years.

The landing for Bowers has been some of the best speculation you will find leading into the 2024 NFL Draft. Early on during the process, many viewed him as a lock to be taken in the top five, while others had him sliding down to the Bengals at the 19th pick. But in my last couple of mock drafts, I feel like the obvious fit has been with the Chargers at the 11th pick after the trade with the Vikings. The case could be made that the team could look to add an offensive tackle in this spot, but I believe it will be hard for HC Jim Harbaugh to pass out a weapon of this magnitude. 

With the Chargers moving on from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, Bowers steps into a role in which he could be used as a Travis Kelce-type player in this offense. With the potential he has to earn a high number of targets in his rookie season, Bowers could essentially become a TE1 in fantasy right out of the gate, whether it be in dynasty or season-long formats. 

Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos (1.19)

Nix is a conundrum of a quarterback prospect. If you look at him from a recency bias point of view, you see a player that looked amazing in the gimmicky Oregon offense. He ranked as the top QB in PFF grade in passing grade, intermediate grade, and pressure grade. But once you look deeper into the numbers, you find that the offense was catered to getting the ball out of his hands quickly and avoiding taking chances down the field (QB156 in Air Yards % -- 38.8).

Nix has an adequate arm for the NFL level, and his pocket presence is sound at times. But his footwork gets messy very quickly when pressured, leading to plenty of negative plays that can be seen in his film while at Auburn. Although he has the athleticism to develop out-of-structure plays, his inadequacies as a consistent passer will limit his upside in the NFL. 

Nix, to me, grades out as a second-round quarterback, but the landing spot with the Broncos is due in large part because the team does not currently have a pick in the round. And with the ability to add the potential for the fifth-year option, I have the Broncos trading back with the Rams to the 19th pick to make Nix their potential franchise QB. Yes, the team did make a move to take a flier on Zach Wilson, but this does not take them out of the running on needing a QB in this draft.

From a fantasy standpoint, I see no upside with Nix in the long-term. There will likely be flashes from time to time, similar to Giants QB Daniel Jones, but sustainability will not be on Nix's side. For dynasty managers, let others in your league take on the headache of rostering him for the foreseeable future as he is destined to become waiver wire fodder down the road. 

Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Buffalo Bills (1.22)

Thomas Jr. has seemingly become the consensus WR4 in this draft class, a tier below the top-three players in the class. With the LSU offense taking off with Jayden Daniels in 2023, Thomas Jr. grew in his abilities as a well-rounded prospect as well. His numbers and efficiency rose across the board as he developed a nose for the end zone (17 touchdowns in 2023). He is a big, tall, and fast vertical threat who displays excellent footwork and flexibility that he employs to get defenders to play on their heels.

He is the type of receiver who likes to play strong to the football and opens himself up well for the quarterback, giving them a wide target area against zone coverage. Thomas Jr. also shows minimal delay when transitioning to a runner with the ball in his hands and can make the first man miss as he works down the field. If he shows improvement in being able to beat press coverage in the NFL, Thomas Jr. could develop into a team's priority WR1 in an offense.

I have the Buffalo Bills trading up to select Thomas Jr., a move that feels destined to happen after the team moved on from disgruntled WR Stefon Diggs. The Bills are going into the 2024 NFL Draft in dire need of a big-bodied receiver who can get open in space, which is what Thomas Jr. does quite well. With the team allowing Gabe Davis to move on to the Jacksonville Jaguars via free agency, Thomas Jr. should find himself in a role where he will be competing to be Josh Allen's top target with Dalton Kincaid.

If he can step in and become the first or second target option every week right away, Thomas Jr. will be a valuable player in not only dynasty drafts but in season-long as well. I currently have him as my fourth-ranked prospect ahead of the draft and he will be firmly entrenched in that position if this landing spot hits. 

Xavier Worthy - WR, Los Angeles Chargers (1.23)

The man that set the NFL Scouting Combine on fire, Xavier Worthy has seen his stock rise during the draft cycle. He is a player with functional NFL speed and is not to be considered a straight-line speedster. His explosiveness and acceleration allow him to get in and out of breaks quickly, setting up his quarterback with a nice target on curls or comeback routes. 

Although he does have amazing footwork when releasing off of the line of scrimmage, his slight frame could lead to struggles against physical NFL cornerbacks. As the leading target earner for the Texas Longhorns over the last three seasons, Worthy has shown he has the skill set to develop into a team's top wideout.

This is a landing spot that I debated over for quite a while as the Chargers could theoretically go with an offensive lineman after acquiring this pick from the Vikings in the trade mentioned earlier. But the thought process here is to add more playmakers to an offense that is in dire need of them. If Worthy were to be paired with Brock Bowers in the new-look Chargers offense, they could develop into a "thunder and lightning" type of duo for Justin Herbert.

With this potential landing spot, we could see Worthy put together a Tank Dell-type rookie season, establishing himself as a valuable fantasy producer early in his career. Look for him to stay firmly inside the top 10 in dynasty rookie drafts as Worthy's career arc appears to be one of a steady WR2 in fantasy.

Ladd McConkey - WR, Kansas City Chiefs (1.32)

McConkey is a player who has greatly benefited from the offseason testing phase leading into the NFL Draft. The team captain from Georgia had an injury-riddled 2023 campaign, which limited his production numbers. But once he showed up to the Senior Bowl and showed out, McConkey has been on the steady rise on draft boards ever since.

He is built for a West Coast offense, in which he can utilize his quickness and acceleration out of breaks to create yards after the catch. His willingness as a blocker will also help to keep him on the field for increased usage. McConkey profiles as a prototypical slot receiver but has shown that he has the long speed to be utilized on the outside for creative play-callers. 

With the uncertainty surrounding the situation with Rashee Rice, the Kansas City Chiefs could be locked into a position to add a playmaker to the position at the end of the first round of the NFL Draft. McConkey would give them a player with versatility that may make HC Andy Reid salivate. The ability to use him in different formations to find mismatches against the defense will only raise the ceiling for him from a fantasy standpoint. And as we enter the final seasons of Travis Kelce being the unquestioned top target for Patrick Mahomes, there will be an opening for someone to fill that void.

McConkey could be just the man for the job, making him a hot commodity in the fantasy community. He is currently locked in as a top-10 pick in dynasty rookie drafts. With this landing spot, McConkey should fall comfortably into a role where he will be a steady contributor as a WR2/WR3 in fantasy formats for years to come. 

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