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Aaron Schillinger examines the quarterbacks that surprised fantasy football owners most in 2019, whether as breakouts or busts. These QB surprises could see their ADP rise or fall drastically in 2020.
The quarterback position in fantasy football is always one that either gets seriously overvalued, or seriously underrated. We all saw just how much of a difference maker someone like Lamar Jackson could be this year, or Patrick Mahomes last year. This year, we saw Mahomes get drafted extremely early, and while he was still good, he probably wasn’t worth what you paid for him.
If you were lucky enough to snag Jackson later in your drafts, he might have won you a fantasy championship, just like Mahomes last year. Heading into 2020, Jackson is looking like someone who will get drafted very early, as well as Mahomes.
On the flip side, you can wait and draft a top-ten quarterback late with someone like Dak Prescott or Matt Ryan. However, waiting on a quarterback can also end up costing you and you may end up streaming week in and week out. Regardless of your strategy on drafting quarterbacks, there’s always some surprises, and 2019 was no exception.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Heading into the 2019 season, Jackson was someone that many owners were banking on having a breakout season. Jackson showed flashes in his rookie campaign and the upside that he brings with his feet is tough to ignore in fantasy football. He didn’t just breakout, he blew the doors off the NFL. Jackson finished the season with 43 total touchdowns, seven of which came on the ground with his legs. We all know by now that he broke Michael Vick’s single-season QB rushing yards record as well with 1,206 rushing yards.
While many owners including myself were banking on a breakout season from Jackson, I definitely didn’t see this performance coming. Jackson has vastly improved with his passing and is elite on the ground, which is a recipe for great success and ultimately, fantasy production. Don't be surprised if he is not only the first QB taken in fantasy drafts next year, but enters the conversation as a first-round pick in some circles.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
A year ago, we typically saw the same four quarterbacks in most people’s top rankings. Those guys were Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, and Aaron Rodgers. We all were shocked by Luck’s retirement, but I won’t get into that. Rodgers has been an elite fantasy option since 2009. Since then, he’s had just two seasons where he wasn’t the QB7 or higher, both where he missed significant time during the season. He’s had six seasons where he’s been either the QB1 or QB2 on the year as well, depending on your scoring system.
This year, Rodgers was still drafted high, but really was pretty disappointing. He did still finish as the QB9 depending on your scoring system, but he wasn’t that elite x-factor that was winning you weeks. There were nine weeks this year where Rodgers threw for one or no touchdowns. The three weeks where he didn’t throw or rush for a single touchdown really hurt. Rodgers was still efficient and only threw four interceptions this year, but he wasn’t that elite option giving your team that edge every week, which was a bit of a surprise, at least for someone as good as Rodgers. His ADP is expected to fall to the point where he is no longer a top-five fantasy QB.
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Gardner Minshew took the fantasy world by storm this year right away after Nick Foles went down in Week 1. Minshew had a strong connection with DJ Chark and both of those Jaguars were a very nice surprise this year. Minshew ended up playing in 14 total games this year, including one against Tampa Bay where he played in 62% of the offensive snaps, so not quite a full game. Basically, he had just over 13 games where he saw a full workload and he finished the season as the QB19 with 3,271 passing yards, 21 TDs, and just six interceptions. He also added 344 rushing yards, but didn’t find the end zone with his legs. If Minshew ends up being named the starter in 2020, he will be a nice late-round QB target, especially if the Jags add another receiver to replace free agent Keelan Cole.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
This was the type of surprise that definitely was not good. Like many fantasy owners, I was a fan of Mayfield and loved him as a breakout quarterback with such a potentially electric offense. With Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt, Mayfield basically appeared to be a fool-proof fantasy option.
Mayfield was not just a disappointment, but he was someone you probably ended up dropping entirely to stream the position. Depending on your scoring format, Mayfield finished as roughly the QB20 on the season. He finished with 3,827 yards with 22 TDs, 21 interceptions, and three rushing TDs. I’ll be looking to target Mayfield late next year and hope we were just a year off on his breakout, as the whole Browns offense should take a step forward next year.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
The biggest surprise of all is former Miami Dolphin and current Titan, Ryan Tannehill. Marcus Mariota started the year off for the Titans, but after underwhelming as usual, the Titans threw Tannehill out onto the field and he looked really good. Not just really good, but damn-near an elite fantasy option, not to mention leading the Titans to a very impressive playoff run.
While Tannehill did finish as the QB22 on the season, that finish doesn’t do justice to explain just how good he was. Depending on your scoring system, Tannehill was the QB3 from Week 7 through Week 16. That was third to just Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in that timespan. If everything stays the same for this Titans offense, Tannehill is going to be a very good value next year in fantasy football drafts.
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