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As we head into the 2021 season, fantasy managers will all be looking for the next late-round draft pick or waiver wire pickup to win their fantasy league. It happens almost every year, someone who is not on the fantasy radar to start the year comes out of nowhere and becomes a league winner for fantasy managers. The past couple of "league winners" include James Robinson in 2020, Lamar Jackson in 2019, James Conner in 2018, and Alvin Kamara in 2017. If you had one of these players on your team that year, it is more than likely you made the fantasy playoffs and had a chance to win your league.
When finding deep sleepers like those previous league winners, there is little risk in rostering them because, well, they are a long shot to have fantasy relevance in the first place. Whether it is drafting them in the final rounds, or picking them up on the waiver wire, the investment is well worth the upside when you identify players that have a path to fantasy success. The most important thing to consider when identifying a sleeper is their potential path to a significant opportunity in the offense, and how likely this is to occur. Last year, Robinson had a huge opportunity in Jacksonville as the lead running back and made the most of it.
When looking at "opportunity", there are a couple of things to consider. For example, does a player have a chance to get goal-line carries? Do they have a path to a significant target share? Is the player in front of them on the depth chart often injured or easily replaceable? These are all things to consider when digging in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. I have identified five players going very late or undrafted who have a path to a good return on investment for fantasy managers in 2021
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Larry Rountree III, L.A. Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers used a sixth-round pick on former Missouri running back Larry Rountree III to add to a backfield led by Austin Ekeler, along with Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley. As training camp gets underway, Rountree is a name to keep an eye on, as the new Charger’s coaching staff liked what they saw from him at the collegiate level. Jackson is on the roster bubble, and it seems that Kelley will likely have a short leash as he struggled to find consistency and efficiency in his rookie year.
With a 5-foot-11, 211-pound frame, Rountree could have some touchdown upside in the Chargers' offense. Ekeler is a bit undersized for a running back, causing him to find the end zone just one time on the ground in 2020. Rountree's size and ability to find the end-zone will likely get him some goal-line work in an offense that should have many touchdown opportunities, as he scored 14 total touchdowns in 10 games with Missouri this past season. Ekeler's smaller frame limited him to just one rushing touchdown in 2020, so there is an opportunity here for Rountree to score some touchdowns. Going undrafted in most leagues, Rountree's value could skyrocket if Ekeler missed any time this season. If he wins the backup job to Ekeler, he should be stashed in all leagues.
Sounds like it will be Josh Kelley vs. Justin Jackson for one roster spot. And winner of that will battle Larry Rountree for big back role behind Austin Ekeler. https://t.co/XbtavVLFNj
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 20, 2021
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
When the Seattle Seahawks drafted running back Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 draft, there were high expectations for the former San Diego State standout. Significant injuries and the emergence of Chris Carson led Penny to start off his career in a very underwhelming fashion. He has shown some flashes of his capability but has never been given the opportunity to be a starting running back. With the departure of Carlos Hyde in free agency, Penny should start the season as the second running back on the depth chart behind Carson.
With an average draft position (ADP) of 164, Penny has very little risk in rostering. Carson has struggled with injuries in the past, and any week where he is out of the lineup Penny is a viable starting option. When Penny is on the field, he has shown he can be productive. In 2019, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry (YPC) on 65 carries through nine games in which he was active. Under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle will look to establish the run more in 2021. It is a safe bet that the 25.7 team run plays per game from 2020 will be increased this season. Penny is worthy of a stash in deeper leagues.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears selected wide receiver Darnell Mooney in the fifth-round of the 2020 draft, and the former Tulane standout proved to be one of the biggest steals of the draft. With an ADP of pick 160, the sophomore receiver has an opportunity to be a great value in fantasy drafts. With Anthony Miller being traded to the Houston Texans, Mooney is now locked in as Chicago’s second option in the passing game. Mooney turned 98 targets into 61 receptions for 631 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie year, largely dealing with horrible quarterback play. In a pass-heavy offense with Justin Fields inevitably taking over as the starter, Mooney could be in for a true breakout season.
In 2020, Mooney had 23 deep targets (11th most) and had 526 unrealized air yards due to Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles struggling to get him the ball when he is open. With Justin Fields' ability to throw deep passes in Chicago’s pass-heavy scheme, Mooney will look to improve in every statistical category going into 2021. With Allen Robinson drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, Mooney can take advantage of going against weaker opposing defensive backs in one-on-one matchups. Mooney is worth a bench spot and has the potential for more in 2021.
Who else is ready to watch Darnell Mooney be unleashed in 2021? #FantasyFootball #Bears pic.twitter.com/Tjw9AjcLXa
— Moody (@EricNMoody) July 25, 2021
Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans used a 2020 third-round pick on tight end Adam Trautman, who now sits atop the New Orleans tight end depth chart heading into his sophomore season. With wide receiver Michael Thomas set to miss the start of the season, Trautman has a realistic chance to be one of the top options in the passing game. Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston will battle for starting quarterback duty, but Trautman can thrive in this offense regardless of who is the starting QB.
Playing behind tight end Jared Cook limited Trautman to just 16 targets in 2020. With this little sample size, he showed he is capable of being efficient. He turned 16 targets into 15 receptions for 171 receiving and one touchdown. Cook vacates 60 targets in the New Orleans offense, most of which will probably be going Trautman. The Saints don’t have many options in the passing game, as Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris will headline their receiving core when Thomas is out of the lineup. Currently being drafted as the TE16, Trautman is someone to keep an eye on as the season approaches, as he offers top-10 TE upside at a position that is extremely scarce.
Jared Cook led the Saints with 9 end zone targets last year. Emmanuel Sanders was second with 6 - both are gone now, Michael Thomas is out to start the season
Oh, and Adam Trautman scored 14 TDs his final college season (9 the year prior)
TE1 this season
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 23, 2021
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
The San Fransisco 49ers gave up a ton of assets to move up to the third pick in the 2021 draft to select quarterback Trey Lance out of North Dakota State. There will be competition for the starting job between Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, but it seems that the rookie taking over at some point is inevitable. With a ton of weapons in the 49ers offense, including wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, as well as tight end George Kittle, Lance has the opportunity to be a viable streaming option when he takes over the starting role.
Mobile quarterbacks are very valuable to fantasy managers, as rushing yards heighten the floor and the ceiling at the position. Lance showed his dual-threat ability by putting up 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in his 2019 collegiate season. In a run-heavy San Francisco offense, Lance can make up for the potential low passing volume with his own legs. With a current ADP of 136, Lance could be a steal for fantasy managers when the fantasy playoffs approach. The 49ers play the Bengals, Falcons, Titans, and Texans to finish off the fantasy season.
Trey Lance not touching the ball in Week 1 would "shock" Brian Baldingerhttps://t.co/7SuUrygkNH pic.twitter.com/WI6bTtG348
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) July 23, 2021
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