Rookie Wide Receivers in the Best Fantasy Situation

June 9, 2021

Gladys Tyler evaluates the top wide receivers selected in the 2021 NFL Draft to determine which WR is in the best fantasy football situation and could break out like Justin Jefferson did as a rookie.

Wide receivers are making an impact earlier each season. This year's draft class was as deep as ever, so there is no shortage of options when searching for help in fantasy leagues.

We are all looking for the next Justin Jefferson but who could it be in 2021?

Here are five rookie receivers in a really good fantasy situation with an evaluation of each to decide who could be the biggest breakout player.

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Height: 5’7”
Weight: 181 pounds
Hands: 8 ¾”
Drafted: Round 2, 49^th pick

Draft Analysis per ESPN.com

“Moore is an undersized slot receiver with excellent burst and rare top-end speed.  He is more of a threat after the catch.  He’s an above-average route runner who has the burst to separate from man and settles into pockets working against zone looks.”

2021 Depth Chart from Ourlads.com

LWR   A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, KeeSean Johnson, Isaac Whitney
RWR   DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Richardson, Andre Baccellia, Antoine Wesley
SWR   Andy Isabella, Rondale Moore, JoJo Ward

The Competition: Andy Isabella

2020 stats: 11 games, 37.3% snap share, 215 slot snaps, 34 targets, 21 receptions, 224 receiving yards, 82 yards after catch, two drops, 5.9% drop rate

Isabella has not quite materialized into the threat the Cardinals expected of him.  Last season he dropped to 10.7 yards per reception after recording 21 yards per reception his rookie season.  His yards per target also fell from 14.5 to 5.4 last season.

Scheme

There is little question that Kliff Kingsbury got the Arizona head coaching job because of the collegiate success of his open passing attack (merits of that to be discussed at a later time).

Last season Arizona was held to under 20 points in three of its final six losses.  The “air raid” offense was 25^th in team passing percentage (55.77%) and 14^th in average pass attempts per game (35.9).

The Cardinals used 10-personnel on 27% of their passes last season.  Kingsbury's offense was stale and unimaginative.  The offense statistically hoovered around 22nd in passes going 15-plus yards.  Hopkins ran short and intermediate routes on the left side, Kirk attempted to stretch the field down the right side, and Isabella and Larry Fitzgerald were slightly better than impotent over the middle.

The offense that was expected to stretch the field vertically was money the first half of the 2020 season, averaging about 424 yards per game with a 5-2 record.  Then defenses seemingly caught up with the offensive schemes, and Kingsbury did little to adjust.

So how does this help Moore? Desperation and opportunity are fantasy player's best friends.  Moore is entering a situation where there is plenty of both.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 193 pounds
Hands: 9 ¼”
Draft: Round 1, Pick 20

Draft Analysis per ProfootballNetwork.com

Toney’s game revolves around creating separation and creating yards after the catch.  He is an elite athlete with a rare combination of explosiveness, contact balance, and field vision.

2021 Depth Chart

LWR   Darius Slayton, Dante Pettis, David Sills, Austin Mack, Alex Bachman
RWR   Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, CJ Board, Derrick Dillion
SWR   John Ross, Kadarius Toney

The Competition: John Ross

Ross played in three games last season.  His foot injury placed him on the injured reserve for the season.

In his three games, he had 18 snaps in the slot while being targeted seven times.  He had two receptions for 17 yards and three yards after the catch.

The Giants acquired his services in free agency for one year, $2.5 million.  Ross has had his share of injuries over the last four years.

Scheme

In 2020 Jason Garrett’s offense ranked 31^st overall in his first year with the Giants. Garrett’s offense depends on attacking defenses vertically.  For this to work, the offense needs receivers who can attack the defense fast downfield, while the offensive line must be exceptional in pass blocking.

Neither of these was evident on the field last season for the Giants.  Last season there were injuries, offensive line growing pains, and questionable play-calling.

Now the Giants have Golladay, Ross, and Toney. Golladay is the WR1 that this offense needs.  Ross’s injury history leaves the door open for Toney to surpass him on the depth chart.  With Golladay commanding defenses attention and a healthy Saquon Barkley keeping defenses honest, Ross and Toney are in line to utilize their speed with quarterback Daniel Jones’ deep passing ability.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 170 pounds
Hands: 9 ¼”
Draft: Round 1, Pick 10

Draft Analysis per NFL.com

Smith has quickness, speed, and change-of-direction fluidity and creates separation from defenders at will.  He possesses an elite skill level for the position and can hit the defense from short, mid-range or deep.

2021 Depth Chart

LWR   Travis Fulgham, Quez Watkins, Khalil Tate, Jhamon Ausbon
RWR   Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Trevon Grimes
SWR   DeVonta Smith, Greg Ward

The Competition: None

Unlike the two before, Smith is most likely to see the field immediately as the number one slot receiver in Philadelphia.  This is both good and bad news.

The Eagles will be playing with the new head coach, Nick Sirianni, and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Groh. There is also a new quarterback Jalen Hurts, under center.

Jalen Hurts 2020 stats: 14 games, 12 red zone attempts, 17 deep ball attempts, 41.7% red zone completion percentage, 41.2% deep ball completion percentage

Scheme

Nick Sirianni was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator.  He has never called plays in the NFL.  There are clues as to what the offense will look like.

1. Employed a 12-personnel or two tight end sets. The Colts ranked in the top 10 using 12 personnel in Sirianni’s first two years as offensive coordinator.  They were ninth in 2018 and sixth in 2019 in the use of 12 personnel.
2. The Colts ranked fourth in the league in 2020 in yards after catch. They ranked eighth in screen attempts.
3. Heavy utilization of the running back in the passing game.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Height: 5’10”
Weight: 182 pounds
Hands: 9 1/8”
Draft: Round 1, Pick 6

Draft Analysis per NFL.com

Waddle’s whereabouts pre-snap and post-snap must be accounted for at all times.  Despite his size, he is a legitimate outside option, thanks to his ability to take the top off the defense and go up and win 50-50 throws.  Waddle can instantly upgrade a team’s scoring potential, whether with a deep ball, the catch-and-run, or as a return man.

2021 Depth Chart

LWR   DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden Jr., Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins
RWR   Will Fuller, Preston Williams, Robert Foster, Allen Hurns
SWR   Jalen Waddle, Albert Wilson, Malcolm Perry

The Competition

The Dolphins have brought in wide receivers with sub 4.4 speed in Fuller and Waddle to stretch the field vertically.

Wide receiver coach Josh Gizzard has stated, “We can move them all around based on the formation.  You will see different guys in the slot and outside.  It is just more the formation of it than who is the slot receiver.”

Scheme

Chan Gailey is no longer the offensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins.  There will now be co-offensive coordinators, Eric Studesville and George Godsey.  Studesville was previously the running back coach, and Godsey was previously the tight end coach.

Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa were under center in 2020.  The Dolphins were 18^th in pass attempts per game (34.9) and 20^th in average passing yards per game (233.5).

Tagovailoa’s stats for his 10 games in 2020 included 290 passing attempts, 39 red zone attempts, and 33 deep all attempts.  He had a 51.3% red zone completion percentage and a 36.4% deep ball completion percentage. His connection with former teammate Waddle can only help.

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 201 pounds
Hands: 9 5/8”
Draft: Round 1, Pick 5

Draft Analysis per CBSsports.com

In addition to having game speed, what makes Chase so special is his explosiveness, strength, and physicality as a route runner and in contested-catch situations.

2021 Depth Chart

LWR   Ja'Marr Chase, Auden Tate, Mike Thomas
RWR   Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin, Scotty Washington
SWR   Tee Higgins, Stanley Morgan Jr., Trent Taylor

The Competition

Seeing as how quarterback Joe Burrow campaigned for Chase and he was drafted as the Cincinnati Bengals first pick, yeah, he is in a really good fantasy position.

Last season before Burrow went down with an injury, he played in 10 games.  He had 404 passing attempts, 55 red zone attempts, and 45 deep ball attempts.  He had a 54.5% red zone completion percentage and a 20 % deep ball completion percentage.

Scheme

The Bengals averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempts last season.  Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan can see an offense that pairs Chase and Burrow increasing that average.

The last time together during the 2019 season, Chase set SEC records for touchdowns (20) and receiving yards (1780) in a season.  It is reported that the Bengals have incorporated some of LSU’s plays from the 2019 season in their offense.

The issues with the offensive line in 2020 appear to be improved even without the drafting of Penei Sewell.  Pro Football Focus has also named the Bengals offensive line the fourth-most improved offensive line in the NFL.

Best Fantasy Position

Here are the current ADPs for each player in a PPR draft:

Chase: 10.05.  He is currently the fifth pick of the 10^th round.
Waddle: 12.03.  He is the third pick of the 12^th round.
Smith: 12.01.  He is the first pick of the 12^th round.
R. Moore: 13.08.  He is the eighth pick of the 13^th round.
Toney: 12.06.  He is the sixth pick of the 12^th round.

All appear capable of being the next Justin Jefferson.  Chase seems the most likely to replicate Jefferson’s rookie feats if Burrow is completely recovered from his injuries.

Waddle will be reunited with his collegiate quarterback, but Tagovailoa has not shown Burrow's promise in his first year.

Smith will be in an offense of transition, while Moore is in an offense that has not reached its potential.

Toney may be the sleeper candidate of them all.  Daniel Jones now has the weapons with no excuses.

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