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NFL betting analyst Tim Heaney shares his top player prop futures bets for the leaders in passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and receiving yards.
When making NFL player prop bets for the 2020 season, wagerers must take into account the odd offseason and preseason, given the global COVID-19 concerns. Still, the books can still present opportunities for sharp bettors to take advantage of lax oddsmaking by considering possible shifts in the NFL's power rankings. Revamped offensive strategies, breakout players, and more developments can tilt the books in wise bettors' favor.
I'll remind readers that my aim for these NFL betting tips articles isn't to say, 'Patrick Mahomes will lead the league in passing,' or, 'Christian McCaffrey will lead the league in total yards.' Aim higher. Go for a bigger return on your NFL betting investment.
Here are some of my favorite football player props worth a bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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LEADER IN PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Favorite to Bet: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (+800)
Realistic Profit Play: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
Take a Shot: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
Wilson is still a relative favorite, but he's being held back a bit by questions over how often he'll pass. He ranked just 13th in 2019, after all. Still, if the health of RB Chris Carson's hip becomes a bigger concern and/or the defense falters (even with S Jamal Adams now in town), Danger Russ could be unleashed to hit the air more often to target DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Greg Olsen and Will Dissly.
Prescott may not have gotten his big-money, long-term deal (he really should), but he got a major gift in rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb to go along with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard as receiving weapons. Damn.
I’m stoked thinking about Murray's system (Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid); his group of receiving options (DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, the emerging Christian Kirk, reception-friendly RB Kenyan Drake); and, despite new defensive contributors, the likely game scripts that will encourage him to sling it.
LEADER IN RUSHING YARDS
Favorite to Bet: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (+900)
Realistic Profit Play: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (+1400)
Take a Shot: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000)
My RotoBaller colleague Kev Mahserejian ranks Barkley as the No. 1 pick in 2020 fantasy football drafts. I agree. A big reason why:
Daniel Jones’ mobility and big-play potential opens up defenses, and the Giants’ O-line could take a major step forward with rookie tackle Andrew Thomas. Plus, it never pays to bet on a repeat rushing king, and I’ll take a shot that Barkley keeps that form from late last year.
If any undervalued back has the volume to make a strong contention, it’s Jacobs. The Raiders’ offensive line is underrated, and the passing offense – despite the entrance of rookies Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards, among others – still isn’t trustworthy; Derek Carr’s passing game plays off the run. Jacobs will dictate the pace and should get 300-plus touches.
Conner has lost some buzz due to the excitement over rookie Anthony McFarland and coach-speak that Mike Tomlin wants to preserve him. Also, unfortunately, we have to acknowledge the increased risk of a former cancer patient in a COVID-19 athletic universe.
It’s time to remind yourself of how Conner’s excellent interior-rushing vision could lead to more volume and preserve the real fragile franchise player: QB Ben Roethlisberger.
Just look at this:
Even with the possible drawbacks, too many people are sleeping on the 2018 Pro Bowler’s favorable offensive line, offense, talent and role.
NFL LEADER: RECEIVING YARDS
Favorite to Bet: Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (+2000)
Realistic Profit Play: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (+2800)
Take a Shot: D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (+7000)
Golladay isn’t exactly a secret, but he deserves optimism due to a presumed full season of Matthew Stafford, who was on pace for a 5,000-yard passing season through the first eight weeks before suffering multiple back fractures and a hip injury, ending his season.
I was tempted to list A.J. Brown (+3300) as the Profit Play, but I see a bit of regression with Ryan Tannehill’s ability, despite the fact I see Brown keeping a similar pace of production with a featured role over a full season. Ridley, meanwhile, certainly has Matt Ryan’s volume working for him, and while Julio Jones remains beastly, Ridley has a third-year breakout working for him on top of back-to-back 800-yard seasons.
The final listing, however, is my favorite player futures prop bet for the entire football season so far. Among wideouts who had 100-plus targets last year, Metcalf ranked in the top seven, along with Golladay (second) in average depth of target (aDOT) with 13.0 yards. If Wilson can boost his volume of aerial attempts and the second-year wideout can refine his physical tools, Metcalf could melt the league.
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